2025 Fantasy Baseball: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Profile, Preview, Prediction
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Toronto Blue Jays superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is currently being drafted as the top first basemen in high-stakes fantasy baseball drafts. Vlad has a massive opportunity to increase his value before he enters free agency at the end of the year. How will he fare in 2025?
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR (ADP – 14.3)
After his breakout season in 2021, Guerrero lost his edge in batting average and power over the following two years. Last year, he had a sharp rebound in his contact batting average (.383 – .335 in 2022 and 317 in 2023), beating his success in 2021 (.381). On the downside, his average hit rate (1.683) remains in an area where 30+ home runs would be a struggle if given only 550 at-bats. Guerrero makes up for some of this potential shortfall by volume of at-bats (over 600 in four consecutive seasons). To offer an uptick in power, he must lower his groundball rate (48.1 – 48.6 in his career) by improving his launch angle (7.4 – 10.5 in 2023 and 9.4 in 2021).
Over his first 216 at-bats last season, Guerrero only had 24 runs, five home runs, and 25 RBIs, giving fantasy drafters some buyer’s remorse. On the positive side, he hit .357 in May with an improving approach (16 walks and 16 strikeouts over 98 at-bats). His power surge came over 309 at-bats in June, July, and August, leading to 58 runs, 22 home runs, and 64 RBIs. Guerrero hit over .300 in each of the final five months, highlighted by July (.358) and August (.375). His season ended with only three home runs and 14 RBIs in September.
He finished last year with a career-low strikeout rate (13.8) while being his career average (9.7) in walk rate (10.8). Guerrero ranked 7th in exit velocity (93.8) and eighth in hard-hit rate (54.9) for batters with at least 400 plate appearances. Last season, his RBI rate (18.1) showed a developing player in clutch situations.
Fantasy Outlook: Guerrero ranked 11th in FPGscore (6.71) for batters in 2024. He comes off the board as the 13th hitter in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. His success and further growth in RBIs hinges on a rebound season by Bo Bichette. The current structure of the Blue Jays’ starting lineup looks unproven behind him in the batting order. Guerrero will start this season at age 26 while offering an edge in batting. He looks poised to become a beast power hitter based on his uptick in power over the final four months of last season. Next step: 40+ home runs with a chance to steal 10 bases, driving his value for his free agency season in 2026.
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