2025 Fantasy Baseball: Yordan Alvarez Profile, Preview, Predictions
Yordan Alvarez has the tools to be an electric foundation power bat with a high floor in four Roto categories. The fantasy market has yet to see his ceiling, making him a value stud in the 2025 draft season.
Yordan Alvarez breaks the scoreless tie in Houston with home run No. 29. ☄️ pic.twitter.com/03KJ740qLw
— MLB (@MLB) September 1, 2024
OF – Yordan Alvarez, HOU (ADP – 18.0)
In 2023, an oblique injury led to Alvarez missing about 45 days between June and July. Over his first 202 at-bats, he hit .277 with 41 runs, 17 home runs, and 55 RBIs. After returning from his injury, his bat stayed on a productive path (.308/36/14/42 over 208 at-bats).
Alvarez set career highs in plate appearances (635), at-bats (552), hits (170), batting average (.308), and steals (6) last season. Unfortunately, his value in runs (88) and RBIs (86) fell short of expectations. He continues to offer an edge in his contact batting average (.372) with an excellent approach (strikeout rate – 15.0 and walk rate (10.9) for a power hitter. Alvarez had a regression in his average hit rate (1.841) while struggling more with runners on base (RBI rate – 15).
His bat was elite vs. left-handed pitching (.362/23/10/30/1 over 188 at-bats), with more success on the road (.333 with 53 runs, 22 home runs, 56 RBIs, and three stolen bases over 273 at-bats). Alvarez lost his power in May (.283/10/2/4/3 over 106 at-bats). He hit between seven and eight home runs in four different months. From June through August, his batting average (.347) was a significant edge, leading to 48 runs, 19 home runs, 49 RBIs, and three steals over 254 at-bats. Alvarez missed the final five games of the season with a right knee issue.
He ranked 13th in exit velocity (93.1) and 18th in hard-hit rate (49.7), which were lower than his two previous seasons. His fly-ball rate (47.6) was a career-high and has risen for five consecutive seasons. On the downside, Alvarez posted a career-low with his HR/FB rate (16.0 – 21.9 in 2023 and 21.9 in his career).
Fantasy Outlook: The Astros want to keep Alvarez in their lineup for more games, so they will limit his playing time in the outfield in 2025. His foundation skill set is tremendous, giving him an edge in power and batting average. He finished 15th in FPGscore (5.34) for hitters in 2024 while underperforming in runs and RBIs for his improved opportunity. Houston has him locked up for four more seasons. I love his floor in batting average and his potential to smash 50 home runs, but Alvarez must avoid the injured list to post difference-maker stats. With a second-round ADP in 2025, he will be a gift for some team structures.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.