2025 Fantasy Baseball: Yusei Kikuchi Profile, Preview, Predictions
Last year, Yusei Kikuchi threw the most first-pitch strikes (65%) in his time in MLB, helping him post the most strikeouts (205) of his career. Unfortunately, his WHIP continues to be a liability, and he's had an ERA under 4.00 once in his six years in the majors.
Yusei Kikuchi collects strikeout No. 13, a new career high. đź‘Ź pic.twitter.com/VpXBm45Ej6
— MLB (@MLB) July 10, 2024
SP – Yusei Kikuchi, LAA (ADP – 144.6)
Kikuchi emerged as a viable fantasy option after four failed seasons in the majors (21-31 with a 5.02 ERA, 1.424 WHIP, and 450 strikeouts over 466.1 innings) over the past two years. His improvement came from a much better walk rate in 2023 (2.6) and 2024 (2.3), with the latter leading to a push higher in his strikeout rate (10.6)
Last year, he set career highs in innings pitched (175.2) and strikeouts (206). Kikuchi opened the season with an excellent first 10 starts (2.64 ERA, 1.121 WHIP, and 61 strikeouts over 58.0 innings). The direction of his arm nosedived over his following 12 games (45 runs, 90 baserunners, and 13 home runs over 57.2 innings with 69 strikeouts) due to giving up four runs or more in seven of these contests. The Astros made a trade for him in late July, and he turned into an ace over 60.0 innings (5-1 with a 2.70 ERA, 0.933 WHIP, .188 BAA, eight home runs, and 76 strikeouts). Kikuchi served up 20 of his 25 home runs to right-handed batters (.248 BAA).
His average fastball (95.5) was the best of his career. He upped his curveball usage (18.6%) after retiring the pitch from 2020 through 2022. As a result, Kikuchi threw fewer sliders (.211 BAA) and four-seam fastballs (.268 BAA). His changeup (.194 BAA) remains his fourth option despite its winning success against righties.
Fantasy Outlook: Kikuchi ranked 40th in FPGscore (-0.29) for starting pitchers last year. His growth late last season was impressive, but what happened midseason? The move to the Angels doesn’t excite me due to LA being projected to have a losing record and possibly leaving him in a few games too long. In addition, any regression command will lead to earlier exits. Anyone draw to his strikeouts could get crushed by his WHIP in 2025.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.