2025 Fantasy Baseball: Zack Wheeler Profile, Preview, Predictions
Zack Wheeler has been a winning foundation fantasy ace in four of his past five seasons. He gave away an edge in ERA (3.61) in 2023 while missing six starts in 2022. Over this span, Wheeler went 59-32 with a 2.94 ERA and 899 strikeouts over 829.1 innings.
"He's a monster, he's a force on the mound and we saw it again."
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 15, 2025
Zack Wheeler nabbed the top spot on the #Top10RightNow for the first time in his career! pic.twitter.com/dO6NJsyq4f
SP – Zack Wheeler, PHI (ADP – 20.1)
Over the past five seasons, Wheeler went 59-32 with a 2.94 ERA, 1.031 WHIP, and 899 strikeouts over 829.1 innings, making him a trusted asset in the fantasy market. Last year, he set career bests in wins (16), ERA (2.57), and WHIP (0.955 – led the NL) while being the most challenging to hit (.192 BAA). Wheeler posted an elite (K:BB ratio – 8.7:1).
Home runs (nine over 55.0 innings) crept more into his equation midseason in 2024, leading to a step back in ERA (3.76) and WHIP (1.109) in June and July. His year ended with an 11-game streak of allowing two runs or fewer (6-2 with a 1.89 ERA, .186 BAA, 0.841 WHIP, and 86 strikeouts over 71.1 innings). Three of Wheeler’s double-digit strikeout games came over his first eight starts. His only injury news (back tightness) was around the All-Star break.
His fly-ball rate (39.0) was a career-high, with minimal change in his HR/FB rate (10.3). He added a split-finger fastball (.130 BAA) last season, leading to fewer four-seamers (.199 BAA), sliders (.175 BAA), and curveball (.200 BAA). Wheeler allowed 15 of his 20 home runs to left-handed batters. His average fastball (95.5) declined for the third consecutive year.
Fantasy Outlook: His last two seasons were almost identical in many areas, except allowing more than a run a game in 2023, despite having similar outcomes in combined total bases, walks, and hit batters (2023 – 315 and 2024 – 297 with eight more innings pitched). Wheeler turns 35 in May with minimal changes in his base skill set. He seems safe, but the Mets find a way to lose their best arms just when their team appears to be on a winning path. Your ace or mine…
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Paul Skenes Profile, Preview, Predictions
With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.