2025 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Middle Round Starting Pitchers to Target
The baseline of an ace pitcher was 14 wins with a sub-3.00 ERA and more than 200 strikeouts. The target for a second-tier ace last season was 13 wins with a 3.44 ERA, 1.117 WHIP, and 187 strikeouts over 177.9 innings. Here are Fantasy on SI's top middle-round starters to target (ranked 16 - 20).
16 – Hunter Greene, CIN (ADP – 95.7)
The dream of Green being a helpful fantasy arm in 2023 never materialized. Over his first two starts, he allowed five runs, 16 baserunners, and one home run over eight innings with 13 strikeouts. He pitched like an ace over his subsequent four appearances (1.80 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 27 strikeouts over 20.0 innings). His bad days outweighed his good over his following eight stats (4.57 ERA, 1.301 WHIP, and eight strikeouts over 45.1 innings).
Green missed 63 days over the summer with a hip injury. He kicked fantasy teams in the Jimmies over his first two games back in action (13 runs, 23 baserunners, and five home runs over 6.2 innings). His stuff was the best of the year over his next four contests (four runs, 18 baserunners, and 35 strikeouts over 24.0 innings). Green drove the bus home with two more poor showings (11 runs, 19 baserunners, and three home runs over eight innings).
After battling home runs (43 – 1.6 per nine) over his first 237.2 innings with the Reds, Greene solved this issue (0.7 per nine) in 2024, leading to electric success when on the mound. He was up and down over his first five starts (4.55 ERA, 1.301 WHIP, and 36 strikeouts over 27.2 innings). Besides two bad games (13 runs, 17 baserunners, and two home runs over 10.0 innings), his right arm was a beast over 115.2 innings (2.41 ERA, 0.951 WHIP, .169 BAA, and 126 strikeouts). Unfortunately, Greene suffered a right elbow injury in mid-August, leading to a trip to the injured list and only two more appearances (one run, seven baserunners, and seven strikeouts over seven innings).
His fastball (97.8) remained electric. Greene mainly relies on his four-seamer (55.3% - .181 BAA with 102 strikeouts) and slider (35.2% - .163 BAA with 59 strikeouts) while adding a split-finger fastball (.231 BAA) last season. He continues to be a fly-ball pitcher (48.3%), but his HR/FB rate (6.9) was well below his first two seasons (16.1% and 14.3%).
Hunter Greene.
— Reds Daily (@RedsDaily4) February 5, 2025
Good at baseball. pic.twitter.com/xnkg8ljKG0
Fantasy Outlook: If Greene didn’t have the injured elbow blemish on his 2024 resume, he would be the smash arm to chase this draft season. His best two pitches are elite and will be even better with improved command. Adding a split-finger pitch offers difference-maker upside when ahead in the count and more development time. In spring training, I expect Greene to be a big mover up draft boards. I can’t dismiss that his power and high-volume slider could lead to a second TJ surgery down the road. A swing-for-the-fences type pitcher in contests with an overall prize.
17 – Gerrit Cole, NYY (ADP – 66.2)
Over his first four seasons with the Yankees, Cole went 51-23 with a 3.08 ERA, 1.011 WHIP, and 816 strikeouts over 644.0, giving New York ace stats. He led the American League in wins (16) in 2021 and in ERA in 2019 (2.50) and 2023 (2.63). Before last season, Cole finished with 200 strikeouts or more for five consecutive years (276, 326, 243, 257, and 222), excluding the shortened COVID-19 season in 2020.
A right elbow issue developed last March, leading to a free fall in drafts and 75 games on the injured list. Cole battled his way over his first seven starts (5.54 ERA, 1.457 WHIP, and 38 strikeouts) due to allowing nine home runs over 35.0 innings. He went 5-3 in August and September with a 2.25 ERA and 61 strikeouts over 60.0 innings. Only two balls left the park over this span. New York handed him the ball in five games in the postseason (1-0 with a 2.17 ERA, 1.276 WHIP, and 22 strikeouts over 29.0 innings).
His average fastball (96.0) was down about one mph from 2023 and almost two mph from his peak in 2021 and 2022. Cole incorporated his cutter (13.4%) more last season, leading to fewer four-seamers (45.4%) and sliders (16.2%). His fastball (.194 BAA) remains his best pitch, followed by his curveball (.216 BAA). The combination of his slider/cutter (.274 BAA) had less value.
Will Gerrit Cole end up in the Top 10 Strikeout Leaders list??? ⚾️
— Captain's Corner (@Captain2Corner) February 1, 2025
He currently has 2,251.#NYY #RepBX #History #MLB pic.twitter.com/GXajozFfl2
Fantasy Outlook: Based on his much lower price point in 2025, the fantasy market has been cautious with their investment in Cole until his arm shows life in spring training. He opted out of his contract in early November, and the Yankees responded by locking him up for two more seasons. New York had no problem giving him $144 million over the next four years, but drafters won’t buy him as a foundation ace in the early draft season. I expect his draft value to rise, similar to Jacob deGrom in March when the fantasy market has to place bigger bets on their ace donkey of the year. I sense a rat, but Cole showed enough over two-thirds of last season to believe he will be an edge again if he makes 30+ starts.
18 – Bryce Miller, SEA (ADP – 80.5)
After underperforming in his college career (8-6 with a 4.07 ERA and 141 strikeouts over 110.2 innings), the Mariners drafted Miller in the fourth round in the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft. His arm shined in 2022 over three levels of the minors (7-4 with a 3.16 ERA and 163 strikeouts over 133.2 innings).
In 2023, Miller had four starts at AA with a sharp decline in value (14 runs, 26 baserunners, and five home runs over 19.2 innings). Surprisingly, his arm was major league-ready. He dominated over his first five appearances with Seattle (1.15 ERA, 0.510 WHIP, and 28 strikeouts over 31.1 innings), but the league caught up to Miller in his next two starts (15 runs, 20 baserunners, and three home runs over seven innings). Over his final 18 starts, he posted a 4.26 ERA and 86 strikeouts over 93.0 innings due to surrendering 15 home runs and five disaster outings (27 runs, 41 baserunners, and 10 home runs over 24.2 innings).
Miller pitched well last season in April (3-2 with a 2.04 ERA, 0.877 WHIP, and 39 strikeouts over 35.1 innings). His five down days in May and June led to a 4.94 ERA and 1.145 WHIP over 62.0 innings with 52 strikeouts for two months. His arm moved into an elite area over his final 14 games (6-1 with a 1.84 ERA, 0.892 WHIP, and 80 strikeouts over 83.0 innings).
His average fastball (95.3 mph) had less usage (42.2% - .183 BAA) in 2024 due to the addition of a split-finger fastball (17.1% - .146 BAA with 55 strikeouts). Miller added more sinkers (.246 BAA), sliders (.241 BAA), and curveballs (.231 BAA) while ditching his changeup.
Fantasy Outlook: The next magical step in Miller’s game is a jump in strikeouts. The change to his split-finger pitch last season erased his weakness against left-handed batters while giving another swing-and-miss pitch. He looks poised to push his way up the starting pitching ranks in 2025 while being mispriced in the early draft season in the high-stakes market. Only 10 starters were better than him last year based on my FPGscore (4.12) ratings, and at least half of those pitchers will be passed this year.
19 – Tanner Bibee, CLE (ADP – 88.3)
The Indians stole Bibee in the fifth round of the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over 28 starts in the minors in 2022 and 2023, between High A, AA, and AAA, he went 10-2 with a 2.13 ERA and 186 strikeouts over 148.0 innings. His strikeout rate (11.3) and walk rate (2.1) fell in an elite area.
After three starts at AAA (1.76 ERA and 19 strikeouts over 15.1 innings), Cleveland called him up to the majors in 2023. Bibee allowed two runs or fewer in 19 of his 25 starts while having two disaster showings (10 runs, 21 baserunners, and two home runs over 7.2 innings). Over his final 14 starts, he went 6-2 with a 2.40 ERA, 1.089 WHIP, .218 BAA, and 83 strikeouts over 82.2 innings.
In his sophomore campaign with the Guardians, Bibee showed improved command thanks to a lower walk rate (2.3) and higher strikeout rate (9.7). He allowed two runs or fewer in 20 of his 31 starts while struggling in three games (16 runs, 27 baserunners, and six home runs over 14.1 innings). Cleveland pushed him over 100 pitches in only three games (102, 109, and 102).
Despite his success, Bibee regressed left-handed batters (.263 with 14 home runs over 361 at-bats). His best stats came on the road (7-4 with a 2.76 ERA and 88 strikeouts over 84.2 innings).
His average fastball (94.7) slowed down slightly while losing value against left-handed batters (.335 BAA). Bibee threw a plus slider (.163 BAA – 34.8% usage) as his second-best pitch, followed by a winning changeup (.224 BAA). His low-volume curveball (.292 BAA) was a liability.
Fantasy Outlook: Bibee is on a trajectory similar to Bryce Miller. He throws strikes with the stuff to put away batters with swings and misses. His fastball location in the strike zone must improve against lefties to reach ace status. Last year, Bibee ranked 21st in FPGscore (2.13) for starting pitchers. Next step: 15+ wins with a sub-3.00 ERA and 200+ strikeouts.
20 – Roki Sasaki, LAD (ADP – 67.9)
Sasaki comes to the Dodgers with four years of experience in Japan. He went 30-15 with a 2.02 ERA, 0.883 WHIP, and 524 strikeouts over 414.2 innings. In his time with Nippon Professional Baseball, he averaged 6.2 innings per appearance while missing some time with various injuries.
Typically, a player coming to the United States leads to a massive contract, but Sasaki arrived two years ahead of that curve, leading to him signing as an international free agent. Los Angeles gave him a $6.5 million signing bonus. There haven’t been any other details about his deal with the Dodgers. Coming out of high school, Sasaki had a right elbow scare that suggested TJ surgery. A year off with rest and a change in his training cleared up his issue.
Sasaki has a high-90s fastball with triple-digit upside. However, in 2024, he lost some velocity at the top end of his four-seamer (96.8 mph). His second-best pitch is a split-finger fastball that sits in the low 90s. He can move the ball away from both sides of the plate. Sasaki uses a slider as his top-breaking pitch, especially against righties.
Rōki Sasaki, 102 mph Fastball & 92 mph Cutting Splitter, Overlay (ISO).
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 5, 2025
The movement difference. 😳 pic.twitter.com/VhjdHOQWGj
Fantasy Outlook: Sasaki's decision to come to the US was twofold. He wanted financial security earlier in his career, just in case a significant injury crept into his equation. By pitching for the Dodgers with success, his right arm will drive endorsement deals and position him to become a free agent in the majors earlier. Los Angeles will ease Sasaki into their rotation in 2025 with a plan to have him pitch in the postseason. The next step in his development should be about 150.0 innings (1/6 coming in the playoffs). His excellent command, paired with his electric fastball and elite swing-and-miss split-finger pitch, should excite the fantasy market. I expect about 125.0 innings in his rookie fantasy season with success in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.