2025 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Starting Pitcher Sleepers

Shawn Childs | Feb 10, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

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The baseline of an ace pitcher was 14 wins with a sub-3.00 ERA and more than 200 strikeouts. The target for a second-tier ace last season was 13 wins with a 3.44 ERA, 1.117 WHIP, and 187 strikeouts over 177.9 innings. Here are Fantasy on SI's top starting pitchers to target (ranked 26 - 30).

26 – Aaron Nola, PHI (ADP – 88.8)

Nola hasn’t missed a start since 2017. When at his best in 2018, he delivered his only foundation ace season (17-6 with a 2.37 ERA, 0.975 WHIP, and 224 strikeouts over 212.1 innings). Since his best year, the high-stakes fantasy market has treated him as an SP2 at a minimum due to his expected value in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts. Unfortunately, he had too many off days over the past few seasons, diminishing his stretches of stardom on the mound. Over the past three years, he ranked 12th (5.16), 30th (0.87), and 19th (2.37) for starting pitchers by FPGscore while being drafted close to a top 12 ace each season.

In 2024, Nola allowed two runs or fewer in 20 of his 33 starts. Batters knocked him out before finishing the fifth inning in five starts, leading to 26 runs, 52 baserunners, and seven home runs over 21.0 innings with 21 strikeouts. He had a 2.93 ERA, 1.049 WHIP, 23 home runs, and 176 strikeouts over his other 178.1 innings. Nola had similar failures over 11 starts in 2023 (52 runs, 85 baserunners, and 14 home runs over 64.2 innings).

His arm no longer had an edge against right-handed batters (.259 BAA), and home runs have been a problem in back-to-back seasons (30 and 32 – 1.4 per nine). Nola had regression in his strikeouts per nine innings (12.1, 11.1, 10.3, 9.4, and 8.9) for the fourth consecutive year while giving back some of his advantage with his walk rate (2.3 – 1.3 in 2022 and 2.1 in 2023).

Nola throws his curveball (.223 BAA) as his top usage pitch (33.0%) while mixing in a four-seamer (27.5%) and sinker (21.0%) to keep batters off balance. Depending on the batting side of a hitter, he’ll also feature a cutter and changeup. Unfortunately, his rising fastball (.172 BAA) was his only pitch of value in 2024. Right-handed batters drilled his cutter (.394 BAA) and sinker (.333 BAA). On the positive side, Nola did a better job keeping the ball down (fly-ball rate – 33.9) last season.

The most innings pitched in MLB since 2020:
(Regular Season & Postseason)

Aaron Nola 903.2 IP
Zack Wheeler 899.2 IP
Framber Valdez 866.0 IP
Gerrit Cole 826.2 IP
Logan Webb 823.2 IPpic.twitter.com/TUqCXrdbBk
— Phillies Tailgate (@PhilsTailgate) January 22, 2025

Fantasy Outlook: This draft season, Nola's price point is much more attractive, considering his direction and recent results. He tends to be on his game for two-thirds of his starts, making it challenging to time his down days. A change in pitch mix to right-handed batters could correct his recent demise against them. His fading strikeout rate suggests less life on his pitches in the strike zone. A drafter looking at his arm must decide if their team needs more upside in this area of the draft or a steady, proven arm to pair with their first ace selected. I’ll treat Nola this way: if he falls in drafts and presents himself as a value SP3, I can’t dismiss his possible help to my fantasy team by taking the mound every fifth day.

27 – Luis Castillo, SEA (ADP – 90.2)

Since arriving in Seattle, Castillo has unlocked his command (2.5 walks per nine – 3.3 with the Reds) while repeating his success in his strikeout rate (9.7 – 26.4%). Last year, he lost one strikeout per nine innings, with more struggles with home runs (1.3 per nine). A hamstring issue in September last season led to him missing the final three weeks.

Over his 30 starts in 2024, Castillo had three pockets of negative stats:

3/28 to 4/8: 12 runs, 29 baserunners, and two home runs over 15.2 innings with 18 strikeouts.
6/8 to 6/30: 19 runs, 37 baserunners, and four home runs over 26.1 innings with 22 strikeouts.
8/17 to 8/23: nine runs, 14 baserunners, and five home runs over 11.1 innings with 15 strikeouts.

He posted a 2.29 ERA over his other 122.0 innings with 120 strikeouts. His failure was due to massive issues with left-handed batters (.275 with 20 doubles and 18 home runs over 316 at-bats). Castillo had a strikeout rate under 8.0 in May (7.9), June (7.6), July (7.7), and September (7.2).

Mama, Luis Castillo just killed a man. pic.twitter.com/A3JFxCtO8D
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 12, 2024

His average fastball (95.7) lost about 1.5 mph over the past two years. For some reason, he started throwing his changeup less in 2023 (15.6%) and 2024 (14.3%) while averaging higher than 30% with this pitch from 2019 to 2021. Castillo had success with his four-seamer (.202 BAA) and slider (.206 BAA), but both options were weaker vs. left-handed batters (.256/.255). For his arm to rebound this season, he must improve the value of his sinker (.298 BAA) and changeup (.294 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: The Mariners starting pitchers added a split-finger pitch to their arsenal over the past few seasons. Based on the direction of Castillo’s changeup, a grip change or new pitch may be required to pump some life into his arm against left-handed batters. When his changeup was more relevant, he was a high-volume groundball pitcher. His change in approach led to more fly-balls (42.2% and 40.0%) over the past two seasons, compared to under 27.0% from 2019 to 2021. From 2017 through 2021, Castillo had an elite changeup (.174 BAA and .275 SLG). I’ve highlighted his recent weakness, so the fantasy market must pay attention to his spring work in March to see if he does indeed upgrade his off-speed pitch in 2025. Do the time or face the crime of making a bad investment.

28 – Joe Ryan, Min (ADP – 95.3)

Ryan corrected his ERA (3.60) and WHIP (0.985) last season, but his season ended in early August due to a right shoulder issue (a partial tear of the teres major muscle). He didn’t have surgery, and the Twins reported that his issue cleared up via an MRI in November. This injury (grade 2) typically takes about three months to recover.

Over his first 17 starts in 2024, Ryan went 5-5 with a 3.21 ERA, 0.965 WHIP, and 110 strikeouts over 103.2 innings. He allowed more than four runs in one game (7/12 – five runs and nine baserunners over 5.1 innings) on the season while completing at least five innings in all but his final appearance (two innings).

Home runs (1.4 per nine – 1.3 in 2024) allowed have been a problem for him every year with the Twins. Ryan has been a fly-ball pitcher (50.1%) in his career. Last season, he did a much better job keeping batters off time up in the strike zone, highlighted by a lower fly-ball rate (45.4) and a spike in infield flies (19.0% - 7.9 in 2023).

His average fastball (94.0) was a career-best in 2024. Ryan added a low-volume sinker (.357 BAA) while seeing his split-finger fastball reclassified as a changeup (.202 BAA) with similar usage (22.1%). Ryan creates his wins with his four-seamer (.195 BAA with 80 strikeouts) with a solid slider (.244 BAA).

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan / Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Fantasy Outlook: The overall skill set for Ryan projects higher in the fantasy market if he can solve his issues with home runs. His strike-throwing ability creates a built-in edge in WHIP. He did see his strikeout rate drop by 1.2 per nine innings, a signal that I want to fade in 2025. For me to invest in Ryan, I don’t want to see him getting banged around in spring training, and he must keep his fastball velocity in line with his career path in March. Triston McKenzie hasn’t been the same pitcher since suffering a similar injury two seasons ago.

29 – Freddy Peralta, MLW (ADP – 97.0)

Over the past two seasons, Peralta has been a serviceable arm, thanks to his edge in strikeouts and some value in wins. Home runs (1.4 per nine) have been an issue in back-to-back seasons. He had a regression in his command in 2024, leading to a rise in his walk rate (3.5) and a step back in his strikeout rate (10.4).

He pitched well in April (3-0 with a 3.21 ERA, 0.861 WHIP, and 45 strikeouts over 33.2 innings), but Peralta had an ERA higher than 4.00 over his subsequent 18 starts (4.42 ERA, 1.341 WHIP, and 17 home runs over 97.2 innings with 114 strikeouts). The direction of his arm improved over his final 42.1 innings (2.34 ERA, 1.205 WHIP, and 41 strikeouts).

Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Peralta allowed 17 of his 26 home runs to right-handed batters (.240 BAA). Power (18 home runs) was also an issue at home. He remains a fly-ball pitcher (44.8%).

His average fastball (94.5) was a career-high. Peralta used his changeup (.221 BAA) more last season at the expense of his curveball (.178 BAA). He continues to get most of his strikeouts (112) via his four-seamer (.230 BAA). His slider (.200 BAA) was also a plus pitch.

Fantasy Outlook: Any improvement and success by Peralta starts with better command. All of his pitchers are challenging to hit, but his free passes, paired with too many home runs, lead to too many bad innings. A streaky arm that has underachieved expectations over the past two seasons. Peralta will be a free agent in 2026, giving him extra motivation to be more on point this year.

30 – Logan Webb, SF (ADP – 97.5)

Since his breakout season in 2021, Webb went 39-32 with a 3.22 ERA, 1.153 WHIP, and 529 strikeouts over 613.0 innings. He’s led the National League in innings pitched over the past two years (216.0 and 204.2) while facing 1,691 batters. Webb can’t match the best arms in baseball with his strikeout rate (7.6 in 2023 and 8.1 in his career), forcing him to catch up by pitching more innings. He hasn’t missed a start in three seasons.

Webb posted an ERA under 3.00 in April (2.98), May (2.40), and August (2.16) while hurting fantasy teams over 59.0 innings in July and September (4.88 ERA, 1.458 WHIP, and 46 strikeouts). His best value came at home (7-5 with a 2.83 ERA, 1.033 WHIP, and 79 strikeouts over 101.2 innings).

He continues to be a high-volume groundball pitcher (56.8%), helping him post a career-low HR/FB rate (7.9). His hard-hit rate allowed has been much higher over the past two seasons (45.5% and 46.0%).

His average fastball (92.8) rose slightly. Webb lost the feel of his changeup (.274 BAA – 30.8% usage). He gained an edge against right-handed batters with his sinker (.225 BAA – .301 vs. lefties). His slider had a favorable split against left-handed batters (.194 BAA – .252 vs. righties).

Fantasy Outlook: Webb will get ahead in the count and induce groundballs, but his arm is fading, and he can’t pitch his way out of trouble with strikeouts. Last year, he ranked 29th in FPGscore (0.87) for starting pitchers. Webb’s not my kind of dance, so I’ll set this season out.

26 – Aaron Nola, PHI (ADP – 88.8)

27 – Luis Castillo, SEA (ADP – 90.2)

28 – Joe Ryan, Min (ADP – 95.3)

29 – Freddy Peralta, MLW (ADP – 97.0)

30 – Logan Webb, SF (ADP – 97.5)

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