2025 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 5 First Basemen
For much of my NFBC career, the first base position has been a top-ranking source for power and RBIs. Last season, only two players (Vladimir Guerrero – 103 and Josh Naylor – 108) had 100 RBIs or more. Guerrero ranked first in runs (98) for the position, and Pete Alonso was second with 91 runs. Only four first basemen had 30 home runs or more: Pete Alonso – 34, Josh Naylor – 31, Vladimir Guerrero – 30, and Bryce Harper – 30). Here are Fantasy on SI's top five first basemen:
1 – Vladimir Guerrero, TOR (ADP – 14.3)
After his breakout season in 2021, Guerrero lost his edge in batting average and power over the following two years. Last year, he had a sharp rebound in his contact batting average (.383 – .335 in 2022 and 317 in 2023), beating his success in 2021 (.381). On the downside, his average hit rate (1.683) remains in an area where 30+ home runs would be a struggle if given only 550 at-bats. Guerrero makes up for some of this potential shortfall by volume of at-bats (over 600 in four consecutive seasons). To offer an uptick in power, he must lower his groundball rate (48.1 – 48.6 in his career) by improving his launch angle (7.4 – 10.5 in 2023 and 9.4 in 2021).
Over his first 216 at-bats last season, Guerrero only had 24 runs, five home runs, and 25 RBIs, giving fantasy drafters some buyer’s remorse. On the positive side, he hit .357 in May with an improving approach (16 walks and 16 strikeouts over 98 at-bats). His power surge came over 309 at-bats in June, July, and August, leading to 58 runs, 22 home runs, and 64 RBIs. Guerrero hit over .300 in each of the final five months, highlighted by July (.358) and August (.375). His season ended with only three home runs and 14 RBIs in September.
He finished last year with a career-low strikeout rate (13.8) while being his career average (9.7) in walk rate (10.8). Guerrero ranked 7th in exit velocity (93.8) and eighth in hard-hit rate (54.9) for batters with at least 400 plate appearances. Last season, his RBI rate (18.1) showed a developing player in clutch situations.
Blue Jays top 5 players for total home runs since 2010
— StatsBrad (@StatsBrad) January 31, 2025
1. José Bautista - 272
2. Edwin Encarnación - 231
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 160
4. Teoscar Hernández - 129
5. Justin Smoak - 117
Bautista first played for TOR in 2008, but hit 272 HR (34 per year avg) from 2010-2017. What… pic.twitter.com/yuPM1tmpht
Fantasy Outlook: Guerrero ranked 11th in FPGscore (6.71) for batters in 2024. He comes off the board as the 13th hitter in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. His success and further growth in RBIs hinges on a rebound season by Bo Bichette. The current structure of the Blue Jays’ starting lineup looks unproven behind him in the batting order. Guerrero will start this season at age 26 while offering an edge in batting. He looks poise to become a beast power hitter based on his uptick in power over the final four months of last season. Next step: 40+ home runs with a chance to steal 10 bases, driving his value for his free agency season in 2026.
2 – Bryce Harper, PHI (ADP – 21.1)
Thirteen seasons into Harper's career, he never clicked on five category cylinders or been the best player in the league. He continues to have a favorable approach (strikeout rate – 21.9 and walk rate – 12.0), and his average hit rate (1.841) last season suggested a higher outcome in home runs. His contact batting average (.381) has had a high floor over the past four seasons.
Last year, Harper was elite before the All-Star break (.301/56/21/61/4 over 302 at-bats), but he wasn’t the same player after suffering a hamstring injury in late June. After missing 10 days, his bat was mediocre at best over his final 248 at-bats (29 runs, nine home runs, 26 RBIs, and three steals). He played well vs. left-handing pitching (.301/28/9/31 over 196 at-bats).
His swing path was more fly-ball favoring (39.6% - 30.5 in 2023 and 34.5 in 2022) last season, but Harper finished below his career average (20.6) in HR/FB rate (18.3). His exit velocity (91.1 mph) has regressed for three consecutive years while maintaining a high floor in hard-hit rate (48.2). Surprisingly, he’s had fewer than 400 RBI chances in nine of his 13 seasons in the majors, five of which were due to injuries, and in 2020, major league teams only played 60 games.
Fantasy Outlook: Harper gets on base enough where 100+ runs should be attainable and has the foundation skill set to pop in home runs. Last year, his FPGscore (3.67) ranked his 25th for hitters. It’s hard to believe Harper will have the best season of his career at age 32, but I can’t dismiss his overall skill set. Start the bidding at .280/85/35/95/10 and hope he beats those targets in all five categories.
3 – Freddie Freeman, LAD (ADP – 24.5)
After only missing 11 games from 2018 to 2023, Freeman was out of action for 15 contests last season with a finger injury and a right ankle issue (required surgery in early December). As a result, he significantly declined in all five categories despite playing in the second-highest-scoring offense (842 runs).
His most productive month came in June (.319/20/6/19/2 over 94 at-bats) while looking like a shell of himself after the All-Star break (.266 with 24 runs, eight home runs, 28 RBIs, and four stolen bases). Freeman found his stroke in the World Series (6-for-20 with five runs, four home runs, and 12 RBIs), leading to an MVP award. Most of his demise at the plate came against left-handed pitching (.250/18/7/28/3 over 192 at-bats).
His fly-ball rate (38.7) was a seven-year high, with improvement in back-to-back seasons with the Dodgers. On the downside, Freeman saw a regression in his exit velocity (89.4 mph) for the fourth consecutive year. In addition, his hard-hit rate (41.6 – 41.8 in 2023) was well below his career path from 2020 to 2022 (54.2, 45.7, and 48.0).
FREDDIE FREEMAN'S GRAND SLAM WALKS IT OFF AND THE DODGERS STEAL GAME 1 😱
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 26, 2024
It's the first walk-off grand slam in World Series history‼️ pic.twitter.com/0mlPvquqgm
Fantasy Outlook: Freeman enters 2024 733 hits shy of 3,000. His offseason conditioning won’t be the same as in previous seasons. Last season, Shohei Ohtani was on base 284 times, and Mookie Betts was on pace for 248 trips around the bases if he played 150 games (he missed 46 games), giving Freeman an elite RBI opportunity. Any decline in 2024 should be attributed to his injuries. Freeman is counting stat machine in runs and RBIs with a long history of success in batting average. Take his 25+ home runs and hope for double-digit steals, as the rest of his stats will land in a winning area.
4 – Matt Olson, ATL (ADP – 39.8)
The magical Braves’ offense was derailed early in 2024 when they lost Ronald Acuna. Olson had all but seven of his 600 at-bats, hitting fourth for Atlanta. Despite finishing the year with 10 more RBI chances (449), he drove in 41 fewer runs. The Braves scored 704 runs (15th), a mere 243 fewer than in 2023.
Olson lost some of his growth in his strikeout rate (24.8 – 23.2 in 2023), with a pullback in his walk rate (10.4 – 14.4 in 2023) due to being less feared at the plate. As expected, his contact batting average (.344) reverted closer to his career average (.350) after outperforming expectations the previous season (.390). He posted a six-year low in his average hit rate (1.851), with a decline in his RBI rate (15).
Over the first four months, Olson hit .226 over 399 at-bats with 46 runs, 17 home runs, and 50 RBIs. He started to save his season in August (.264/20/8/17 over 110 at-bats). His batting average (.319) and approach (19 walks and 18 strikeouts) improved in September, but only four balls left the yard over 91 at-bats (12 runs and 21 RBIs). Olson finished the year with more success against lefties (263/27/10/30 over 171 at-bats).
His swing path remained fly-ball favoring (43.0%), but Olson posted a career-low HR/FB rate (15.5) with a decline in his exit velocity (91.5 mph – 93.7 in 2023) and hard-hit rate (47.4 – 55.1 in 2023).
Fantasy Outlook: Ronald Acuna had surgery to repair his left ACL on June 7th, giving him about nine months to be ready for opening day. The Braves won’t push him early in the year, but Olson needs him in the lineup to return to glory in his run production, along with healthy seasons by Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies. Olson has a baseline of 35 home runs and 100+ RBIs. Any growth in runs is tied to the success of the bats behind him in the lineup. He’ll be in the lineup daily (no missed games over the past three seasons), helping his floor in the counting categories. I don’t expect his batting average to be an asset.
5 – Pete Alonso, NYM (ADP – 60.0)
Playing in a free-agency season didn’t go well for Alonso in 2024. He pressed at the plate with runners on bases based on his weakness in RBI rate (12.6). Over the previous two years, his RBI rate (17.6) was more aligned with a middle-of-an-order bat. Alonso has had a high floor in RBI chances over the past four seasons (440, 499, 440, and 437), and it could fall at the high end of that range by hitting behind Juan Soto (on bases 299 times last season) if he resigns with the Mets.
In his career, Alonso has an average hit rate (2.068), supporting 40+ home runs, but that number slid slightly in 2024 (1.911). Last year, he had an uptick in his groundball rate (42.1 – 36.6 in 2023) while posting a career-low HR/FB rate (18.4 – 22.9 in 2023 and 22.1 in his career). His exit velocity (89.8) has been below 90.0 mph over the past three seasons while consistently grading high in his max exit velocity (116.3) and barrel rate (13.2). Surprisingly, his hard-hit rate (46.4) was the second-best of his career.
The quest for more power has led to a spike in his strikeout rate (24.8 – 23.0 in 2023) over the past two seasons. His walk rate (10.1) was his highest since his rookie year while grading above average in all seasons. Alonso had between four and eight home runs every month in 2024 while failing to deliver impact production in any month. His contact batting average (.335) was much better than 2023 (.295), but it has never approached his success in his first year (.374) with the Mets.
Fantasy Outlook: In the early draft season, unsigned players tend to be discounted until the fantasy market sees where they land. Last year, Alonso finished 38th in FPGscore (2.07) for batters. His early January ADP (60.0) in the NFBC prices him as the 37th hitter drafted. No matter where he signs, Alonso should have a floor of a 90/30/90 player with minimal speed. I don’t view him as a lock to be a liability in batting average. With the Mets, I could see a .250/100/40/120/3 year. I expect his draft value to rise as the regular season approaches.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.