Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Rankings: 11-15

 Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto / Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

The value of an ace in fantasy baseball varies due to league size, league format, and the quality of your league mates. In addition, trading allows a fantasy manager to trade an asset to improve their roster in another area. In the high-stakes market in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, a drafter must get the foundation of their pitching staff right on draft day, as there are no life rafts coming due to no trading. When adding the quickest to the waiver wire doesn’t win the game or gain an edge by timing, it forces more fantasy teams to develop their pitching staffs earlier than in home-style formats. Here are Fantasy Sports On SI’s pitchers ranked 11-15 for the 2025 season.

11 – Corbin Burnes, ARZ (ADP – 40.0)

Burnes was electric over 73 games (27-14 with a 2.62 ERA, 0.964 WHIP, and 565 strikeouts over 428.2 innings) from 2020 to 2022. Over this span, he led the National League in ERA (2.43 in 2021) and strikeouts (243 in 2022). 

Corbin Burnes
Corbin Burnes / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

Over the past three seasons, his strikeout rate has declined (2021 – 12.6 per nine, 2022 – 10.8, 2023 – 9.3, and 2024 – 8.4), but his arm still held value in ERA (3.08) and WHIP (1.042). Heading into this year, I made a mental note of pitchers I wanted to avoid (any arm showing a decline of more than one strikeout per inning from the previous year), even if coming off a successful season. My thoughts were tied to the direction of the recent failure of these arms (Walker Buehler in 2022, Christian Javier in 2023, and Shane Bieber in 2024).

Last year, Burnes had a career-high in wins (15), with an ERA under 3.00 for the fourth time. Batters hit .229 against him (a five-year high). Burnes only struggled in August (7.36 ERA and 1.597 WHIP over 25.2 innings). Home runs (14 over 91.2 innings) were an issue over the summer.

He features a cutter (.250 BAA) as his top usage pitch (45.4%). Burnes threw his slider (.172 BAA) at his highest rate (14.4) since 2019 while tossing a few more curveballs (.204 BAA). Batters hit .194 vs. his changeup and .250 off his seldom-used sinker (.250 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: The Diamondbacks signed Burnes to a six-year $210 million contract in late December. He appears to be a discounted ace compared to his price over the previous few seasons.

12 – George Kirby, SEA (ADP – 45.0)

The ace arrival didn’t come in 2024 for Kirby. He continued to be a strike-throwing machine, highlighted by his league-leading walk rate over the past two seasons (2023 – 0.9 and 2024 – 1.1). Surprisingly, he led the American League in hits allowed (181) last season while failing to find a winning put-away pitch (8.4 strikeouts per nine). Kirby ranked 15th for starting pitchers in FPGscore (3.21), compared to ninth (4.21) in 2023.

George Kirb
Seattle Mariners pitcher George Kirby / Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

Last year, he struggled more with left-handed batters (.258 over 334 at-bats with 12 home runs). Kirby hurt fantasy teams in ERA in April (4.18), May (4.00), and August (6.84) due to six disastrous starts (34 runs, 53 baserunners, and 11 home runs over 29 innings). He allowed two or more home runs in eight games, six of which were on the road (17 total away from home).

His average fastball (96.2) matched his 2023 season. Kirby featured his split-finger fastball (.247 BAA with 20 strikeouts) more last year while lowering the usage of his four-seamer (34.4% - .227 BAA). His slider (.218 BAA) was his best pitch while not gaining an edge with his curveball (.333 BAA). 

Fantasy Outlook: The attraction to Kirby is his command, leading to a winning WHIP and depth in games, creating more chances at wins. He relies on his four-seamer to put away batters, but his secondary stuff isn’t good enough to expand the strike zone and get more swings and misses. Kirby made 64 starts over the past two seasons while winning 42.1% of those chances. At this point of his career, he isn’t a foundation ace, but his arm will come fast once his strikeout rate approaches 10.0 per nine innings (10.7 over 117.1 innings in the minors). I love his price point this year, even if he doesn’t reach ace status. His first hurdle in 2025 is cleaning up the home run damage on the road.

13 – Yoshinobu Yamamoto, LAD (ADP – 58.9)

The Dodgers locked down Yamamoto in December of 2023 for $325 million over 12 seasons. His arm was electric over his last five years in Japan, leading to a 66-37 record with a 1.64 ERA, 0.902 WHIP, and 869 strikeouts over 833.0 innings. Yamamoto has an ERA under 1.70 for three consecutive seasons with an improving walk rate (1.5 – 2.0 in his career).

Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Over his time in Japan, batters struggled to square up the baseball against him, highlighted by his 29 home runs allowed over his last 833.0 innings (0.3 per nine) while inducing a high number of ground balls. Yamamoto didn’t bring a difference-maker strikeout rate (9.2). 

In his first season with Los Angeles, Yamamoto missed almost three months with a triceps issue in his right arm. After a sluggish major league debut (five runs and five baserunners over one inning with two strikeouts), he went 6-1 over his following 12 starts with a 2.41 ERA, 1.014 WHIP, and 81 strikeouts over 71.0 innings. Unfortunately, Yamamoto left his next games after pitching two shutout innings. The Dodgers eased him back into action in September (six runs and 21 baserunners over 16.0 innings with 21 strikeouts), followed by four appearances in the postseason (2-0 with a 3.86 ERA, 0.964 WHIP, and 15 strikeouts over 18.2 innings). 

Yamamoto had success vs. left-handed batters (.193 BAA) while struggling at times against righties (.263 BAA). He allowed a low fly-ball rate (31.5). His average fastball (95.6) graded well while having success with his split-finger fastball (.171 BAA – 40 strikeouts over 111 at-bats), curveball (.210 BAA), and slider (.111 BAA). Yamamoto battled his four-seamer (.279 BAA) and cutter (.364 BAA) against right-handed batters.

Fantasy Outlook: I’m always fearful that any arm issue will translate to a future elbow injury that may require surgery. Rest tends to cure triceps injuries, so Yamamoto should be good to good for 2025. He checked enough ace boxes in his rookie campaign, but Yamamoto threw over 90 pitches in only nine games (100 or more in his four starts before his IL stint). Let’s shoot for 180.0 innings with an edge in ERA and WHIP.

14 – Framber Valdez, HOU (ADP – 63.0)

Over the past five seasons, Valdez emerged as one of the better pitchers in baseball. He went 60-33 with a 3.12 ERA, 1.150 WHIP, and 764 strikeouts over 781.0 innings. His best success over this span came in 2022 and 2024, highlighted by his ERA (2.82 and 2.91) and 32 combined wins. 

Framber Valde
Houston Astros pitcher Framber Valdez / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Two starts into last season (three runs, 17 baserunners, and 10 strikeouts over 12.1 innings), Valdez landed on the injured list for three weeks with a left elbow issue. He had three disaster starts (18 runs, 30 baserunners, and five home runs over 14.1 innings with seven strikeouts) over his next eight games. His arm moved to elite status over his 17 outings (2.24 ERA, 1.040 WHIP, and 118 strikeouts over 108.2 innings).

He continues to be a high-volume groundball pitcher (60.6%), leading to only 20.0% of his balls in play being fly balls. His average sinker (94.3 – 46.5% usage) was down slightly. Valdez relied more on his curveball (.122 BAA) and changeup (.231 BAA) than last season. His walk rate (2.8) regressed, with some pullback in his strikeout rate (8.6).

Fantasy Outlook: Heading into a contract year, Valdez is on top of his game with a lingering dark passenger (left elbow issue). He checks more boxes than two years ago when his command was in a weaker position. Last season, his FPGscore (3.91) ranked 10th for starting pitchers despite missing 12.5% of the year. I don’t see anything in his profile that suggests improvement in 2025, but more of the same can help fantasy teams. 

15 – Michael King, SD (ADP – 63.2)

King threw the ball well over his first 19 appearances in 2023, leading to a 1.65 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, .207 BAA, and 38 strikeouts over 32.2 innings. He allowed a run or more in 10 of his next 22 games (4.81 ERA, 1.277 WHIP, six home runs, and 41 strikeouts over 33.2 innings). New York started to stretch him out in late August. King turned into a stud over seven starts (four runs, 34 baserunners, and 47 strikeouts over 34.1 innings) with no home runs allowed. His season ended with a subpar showing (four runs, eight baserunners, and three home runs over four innings).

Michael Kin
San Diego Padres pitcher Michael King / David Frerker-Imagn Images

Coming into last season, fantasy drafters had to answer the factor or fiction about the viability of his right arm. After stumbling out of the gate in April (5.00 ERA, 1.583 WHIP, and 10 home runs over 36.0 innings with 40 strikeouts), he proved to be a true story over his final 24 starts (2.42 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, and 161 strikeouts over 137.2 innings). King served up only seven home runs over this hot run. The Padres handed him the ball twice in the postseason (2-0 with an electric start vs. the Braves ~ seven shutout innings with 12 strikeouts).

His average fastball (93.8) was more than two mph than his peak in 2022 (96.2). King dominated three pitches (sinker – .192 BAA, changeup – .200 BAA), and slider (.219 BAA), with each option offering strikeout ability (56, 67, and 52). His four-seamer (.329 BAA) was a liability vs. left-hand batters. He used all of his pitches about the same.

Fantasy Outlook: King’s rise has more length to his resume, and his arsenal paints a winning picture for 2025. He is another pitcher this season with a significant jump in innings (81.0) that may lead to lingering wear this year. With a new contract (free agent) on the horizon, the Padres will try to squeeze another year out of his right arm.

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Shawn Childs
SHAWN CHILDS

With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.