Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Late-Round Starting Pitchers to Target

Shawn Childs | Feb 10, 2025

Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Justin Steele / Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

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We continue to rank the top starting pitchers heading into the 2025 fantasy baseball season. Fantasy on SI breaks down the next tier of pitchers:

36 – Shane McClanahan, TB (ADP – 118.6)

As expected, McClanahan moved into the front-line ace conversation in 2022. Over his first 19 starts, he allowed three runs or fewer in each game while completing six innings of work 15 times. The Rays didn’t let him throw more than 100 pitches all season. McClanahan hit a wall over his final 48.2 innings (4.44 ERA, 1.295 WHIP, and .245 BAA) while batting a left shoulder issue in late August. After returning from a two-week stint on the injured list, he didn’t look healthy over his last three starts (11 runs, 23 baserunners, and four baserunners over 14 innings with seven walks and seven strikeouts). McClanahan pitched better in his only postseason start (two runs over seven innings with no walks and five strikeouts).

.@RaysBaseball ace Shane McClanahan will be ready to go in 2025 according to President of Baseball Ops Erik Neander! 🔥#MLBTonight | @SageUSAmerica pic.twitter.com/rkZRsZqWP7
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) December 11, 2024

In 2023, fantasy drafters loved the success and direction of McClanahan’s arm over his first 16 starts (11-1 with a 2.12 ERA, 1.097 WHIP, and 97 strikeouts over 89.1 innings). He failed to complete four innings in his last two appearances in June (four runs, 14 baserunners, and a home run over 6.2 innings with four strikeouts), leading to a trip on the injured list for 16 days with a back issue. His arm faltered again over his final four games (7.11 ERA) before suffering a season-ending forearm/elbow issue. He had TJ surgery in mid-August.

His average fastball (97.0) is electric in velocity, but batters had more success against his four-seamer (.270 BAA). McClanahan had an excellent changeup (.153 BAA) and a winning curveball (.197 BAA). His slider (.261 BAA) has yet to be an asset against right-handed batters (.286 BAA – .786 SLG).

Fantasy Outlook: With more than 18 months of recovery, McClanahan should be ready for opening day in 2025. The Rays are looking for him to pitch about 150.0 innings this season. When at his best in 2022, he ranked 13th in FPGscore (5.10) for starting pitchers while tossing 166.1 innings. Investing in arms coming off significant injuries tends to fall short of expectations. McClanahan has an electric arm that expects to pay 83% of the potential this year while still having a sore left shoulder on his short major league resume.

37 – Bryan Woo, SEA (ADP – 133.5)

Woo started his 2023 season with Bryce Miller at AA, but he needed only nine starts (3-2 with 2.05 ERA and 59 strikeouts over 44.0 innings) before earning his chance in the majors.

Seattle drafted him in the sixth round of the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over three years in college, Woo struggled in the bullpen and starting (4-7 with a 6.36 ERA and 89 strikeouts over 69.1 innings). TJ surgery cost him some devilment time.

After a rough major league debut (six runs and eight baserunners over two innings with four strikeouts), he gave the Mariners six winning starts (2.20 ERA and 39 strikeouts over 32.2 innings). Woo was up and down over his final 53.0 innings (4.58 ERA and 50 strikeouts).

Seattle Mariners starter Bryan Woo / Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images

In his sophomore year with the Mariners, he has two lengthy stints on the injured list. Woo opened 2024 with a right elbow issue, leading to his season debut on May 10th. His stuff arm was electric over his first eight appearances (3-1 with a 1.77 ERA, 0.689 WHIP, and 28 strikeouts over 42.2 innings). A hamstring injury sidelined him for another 17 days early in the summer. Woo pitched well over his final 14 starts (6-2 with a 3.46 ERA, 1.004 WHIP, and 73 strikeouts over 80.2 innings). Home runs (12) became an issue over this span while struggling in four contests (19 runs, 34 baserunners, and seven home runs over 20.1 innings with 15 strikeouts), three of which came over his last six starts.

His command (1.0 walks per nine) was sensational, but Woo trailed the best pitchers in the game with his strikeout rate (7.5 – 21.4%). Batters only barreled 4.8% of his pitches.

His average fastball (95.0) was challenging to hit (.212 BAA), as well as his sinker (.234 BAA). Woo ditched his cutter in favor of a dynamic slider (.164 BAA) while throwing more changeups (.211 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: The progression of Woo last season was impressive, but I can’t dismiss his early season elbow issue that showed up again in a minor way in mid-June. His minor league resume shows more strikeout ability, but he did outperform this profile with his walk rate (2.8). The depth of his arsenal projects well against righties and lefties. Interesting option in 2025 as an entire season of his arm should help in a big way in WHIP if he repeats his growth in command. With no negative elbow news in spring training, tee him up and dream big.

38 – Justin Steele, CHC (ADP – 118.6)

Steele outperformed his minor league resume over the past three seasons with the Cubs (25-17 with a 3.10 ERA, 1.199 WHIP, and 437 strikeouts over 427.0 innings).

Late last spring training, he suffered knee and hamstring injuries, leading to 36 days on the injured list. Steele struggled over three starts in mid-May (15 runs, 22 baserunners, and six home runs over 16.0 innings). Over his next 17 starts, his arm delivered ace stats (5-3 with a 2.45 ERA, 1.062 WHIP, and 108 strikeouts over 102.2 innings). He allowed more than three runs in two games over this span. Steele developed a left elbow injury in early September, leading to only 6.2 more innings (two runs, nine baserunners, and one home run).

His arm played well against left-handed batters (.188 with two home runs over 96 at-bats). Despite a rising fly-ball rate (37.5), his HR/FB rate (8.7) regressed.

Steele brings a below-par fastball (91.7), but his cutter is his top usage pitch (59.6% - .244 BAA). His path to success relies on the success of his slider (.156 BAA). He also features two show-me pitches (changeup – .222 BAA and curveball – .000 BAA).

Justin Steele on his goals this season ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/mYIeqFtcOA
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) February 10, 2025

Fantasy Outlook: The Cubs trusted the health of Steele’s left arm enough to settle his arbitration case in early January for $6.55 million. His resume over the past three seasons paints a winning picture. I’ve avoided him so far in his career, so I’ll pass again this year due to his previous elbow issue. Steele should be an asset in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts if healthy for 30 starts.

39 – Sonny Gray, STL (ADP – 105.1)

The move to St. Louis in 2024 treated Gray well, leading to his lowest walk rate (2.1) and K:BB ratio (5.2) of his career. Despite his better command and winning strikeout rate (11.0 – 30.3%), he had a regression of more than a run allowed per nine innings (2.79 in 2023 and 3.84 in 2024). Home runs (1.1 per nine) crept into his equation while seeing minimal change in his batting average against over the past four seasons (.225, .224. .226. and .228).

Gray ended last season with a right forearm issue, costing him the final 10 games of the year. He also was on the sidelines for 11 matchups to open 2024 due to a hamstring issue. His arm backed up over two starts in mid-May (11 runs, 18 baserunners, and four home runs over 11.0 innings with 15 strikeouts). Gray lost momentum in his stats from July 5th to August 24th (5.83 ERA, 1.352 WHIP, and 66 13 home runs over 54.0 innings with 66 strikeouts) when he gave up five runs or more in six of his nine starts. His arm stabilized over his final four appearances (2-0 with a 2.55 ERA, 0.851 WHIP, and 28 strikeouts over 24.2 innings).

Much of his failure came on the road (5.20 ERA, 1.211 WHIP, and 92 strikeouts over 93.2 innings). Left-handed batters (.248 BAA with 11 home runs over 290 at-bats) had the most success against Gray. The exit velocity (89.6) against him has risen over the past three seasons.

His slider (.171 BAA) was his top usage pitch (30.7%) last season while throwing fewer curveballs (.213 BAA). He’s mixed a cutter (.182 vs. righties, but it was a liability against LH batters – .429) over the past two years, along with throwing more losing changeups (.370 BAA). Gray has a below league-average fastball (92.6). His sinker (.199 BAA) grades much better than his four-seamer (.328 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Gray gains his strikeout edge with his slider (119 in 2024), and his sinker has swing-and-miss value (52 strikeouts). He threw his other four pitches 1,278 times last season, but they accounted for only 31 strikeouts. Gray is at his best when ahead in the count, and his slider is on point. Three of his pitches had downside risk in 2024. Over the past four seasons, he missed 18 starts. His forearm issue last year could indicate an underlying elbow issue created by his rising slider usage. Gray is a tricky arm to price this year, as his surface stats shine in many areas, but there are hints of downside lurking in the background.

40 – Carlos Rodon, NYY (ADP – 123.4)

Rodon parlayed two great seasons in 2021 and 2022 (27-13 with a 2.67 ERA, 0.998 WHIP, and 422 strikeouts over 310.2 innings) into a six-year deal with the Yankees for $162 million.

In 2023, he started the year on the injured list with a back injury. After returning in early July, Rodon failed to find consistency over his 14 starts (6.85 ERA, 1.447 WHIP, and 15 home runs over 64.1 innings). His walk rate (3.9) was a significant issue, and he struggled with right-handed batters (.274 with 12 home runs over 208 innings).

Last season, Rodon gave New York 32 starts, but there were many down days on his journey. He went 9-2 over his first 14 contests with a 2.93 ERA, 1.050 WHIP, and 74 strikeouts over 80.0 innings. All his early gains were given away three games later (21 runs, 34 baserunners, and five home runs over 13.2 innings with 18 strikeouts). Rodon posted a 4.10 ERA, 1.234 WHIP, and 69 strikeouts over his following 52.2 innings. His arm rebounded in September (2.20 ERA, 1.081 WHIP, and 34 strikeouts over 28.2 innings) despite allowing six home runs.

Rodon gave up 28 of his 31 home runs to right-handed batters. His home splits (9-2 with a 3.11 ERA and 91 strikeouts over 81.0 innings) were much better than on the road (4.69 ERA, 1.340 WHIP, and 104 strikeouts over 94.0 innings).

His average fastball (95.5) aligned with his previous three seasons. Rodon threw fewer four-seamers (.274 BAA) due to his struggles with hard contact (14 doubles, three triples, and 25 home runs). He brought back his changeup (.198 BAA). He continues to throw a favorable slider (.203 BAA). Rodon created an edge with his two show-me pitches against lefties (curveball – .000 and cutter – .125 BAA).

Carlos Rodon in Sept/Oct 2024:
- 28.2 IP
- 2.20 ERA
- 3.63 xFIP
- 1.08 WHIP
- 10.67 K/9
- 29.6% K%
- .202 BAA
- 97.5% LOB%#RepBX pic.twitter.com/nu4iK0OOtI
— Tobey Schulman (@tschulmanreport) February 10, 2025

Fantasy Outlook: Ultimately, Rodon can’t reach elite SP1 status without locating his fastball better in the strike zone. He brings value in strikeouts with reasonable command. His desire to elevate his pitches over the past two seasons led to a high fly-ball rate (49.4) and struggles with home runs. His coin flip is between an underachiever or a potential underlying injury. I don’t see enough light in his profile to reel me in 2025.

36 – Shane McClanahan, TB (ADP – 118.6)

37 – Bryan Woo, SEA (ADP – 133.5)

38 – Justin Steele, CHC (ADP – 118.6)

39 – Sonny Gray, STL (ADP – 105.1)

40 – Carlos Rodon, NYY (ADP – 123.4)

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