Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Outfielders (Tier 14)

Shawn Childs | Feb 18, 2025

Washington Nationals center fielder Jacob Young / Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

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We continue to rank the top outfielders entering the 2025 fantasy baseball season. Let's break down the next tier:

66 – Michael Conforto, LAD (ADP – 285.7)

From 2021 to 2023, Conforto’s average hit rate (1.608) was well below his earlier career path, painting a lower-power picture in 2024. Conforto had a slow start in April (.205/15/4/10/1 over 78 at-bats) in 2023 while creating some fantasy excitement the next month (.289 with 17 runs, seven home runs, 18 RBIs, and one home run over 90 at-bats). Unfortunately, his bat was worthless for the remainder of the season (.231/26/4/30/2 over 238 at-bats). Conforto missed three weeks late in the year with a hamstring issue.

Last year, he started well in April (.266/15/5/16 over 109), but a hamstring issue knocked him to the injured list for 22 days. Conforto had no life in his bat in June and July (.164 over 140 at-bats with 11 runs, three home runs, and 20 RBIs). His swing was much better over his final 155 at-bats (.265/26/10/26). Surprisingly, he had more success against left-handed pitching (.284/14/6/20 over 95 at-bats).

His strikeout rate (24.2) aligned with his career path while losing some momentum with his walk rate (8.6). Conforto had a balanced swing path while showing more life with his exit velocity (90.2 mph), hard-hit rate (45.8), and HR/FB rate (15.3).

Michael Conforto, Mookie Betts and Max Muncy getting ready for Dodgers spring training! pic.twitter.com/naiiENS8XL
— Dodgers Nation (@DodgersNation) February 17, 2025

Fantasy Outlook: The switch to the Dodgers should create more RBI chances for him due to LA outscoring the Giants by 193 runs in 2024. Los Angeles will give Conforto at-bats vs. some lefties, but Andy Pages looks poised to be his platoon mate. His starting point for this season should be a 60/20/60 season over 450 at-bats. I expect a rebound in his batting average.

67 – Jacob Young, WAS (ADP – 289.3)

The Florida Gators gave Young his best starting opportunity in 2021, leading to a .315 batting average with 56 runs, five home runs, 41 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases over 254 at-bats. He only had 26 steals (30 attempts) in college.

His speed tool (105-for-119 over 1,013 at-bats) blossomed over his four seasons in the minors while handling himself well at the plate (strikeout rate – 14.6 and walk rate – 9.7). Young had a progression year in 2023 over three levels of the minors (High A, AA, and AAA – .305/60/6/58/39 over 433 at-bats), earning him a call-up to Washington (.252 over 107 at-bats with nine runs, no home runs, 12 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases).

The Nationals gave him three games at AAA (3-for-14 with a run) in 2024 before his call-up to replace the injured Victor Robles on their roster. Young’s bat emerged over the final 10 days in April (12-for-29 with 10 runs, five RBIs, and six steals), setting the stage for Washington to move on from Robles. Over the last five months of the season, he made 123 starts over his 128 appearances (.247/59/3/29/21 over 401 at-bats).

His strikeout rate (19.6) beat the league average while coming up short of his previous resume in walks (5.8%). The Nationals gave Young the majority of his at-bats (338) in the ninth slot of their batting order. He had weakness in his exit velocity (85.8 mph) and hard-hit rate (28.9) while having a high groundball swing path (52.6%).

Fantasy Outlook: A rabbit base stealer can offer an edge to fantasy teams if he runs when in their lineup and his light-hitter power doesn’t crush their team structure in home runs and RBIs. In addition, he must be priced fairly on drafts. There is something to be said about having a base stealer in waiting on the bench in the high-stakes market.

Young looks poised to earn the bulk of at-bats for Washington in centerfield this season. He offers impact speed that should translate into a top-5 player in stolen bases this year if given 500+ at-bats. Even with two elite power-only batters on a roster, Young’s lack of home runs and RBIs will eat away at that edge over a long baseball season. If the shoe fits and is priced right, this gump investment may return a winning piece to a fantasy team if timed properly.

68 – Jonny DeLuca, TB (ADP – 435.3)

Based on his five years in the minors (.271/229/67/207/59 over 1,166 at-bats), DeLuca has an intriguing skill set for the fantasy market once he gets more experience in the majors. At age 25, he’s only had 177 at-bats at AAA (.305 with 33 runs, nine home runs, 41 RBIs, and four steals).

The Rays called him up last May, leading to 87 starts over 107 games. Unfortunately, his minor league success didn’t translate as well with Tampa. He hit .217 over 332 at-bats with six home runs, 31 RBIs, and 16 stolen bases. DeLuca teased fantasy managers after a tremendous first five games (7-for-20 with three runs, one home run, 10 RBIs, and two steals). His bat struggled against left-handed pitching (.191/10/1/10/2 over 89 at-bats).

DeLuca had a league-average strikeout rate (21.3) with weakness in his walk rate (6.6). His exit velocity (84.6) and hard-hit rate (28.0) ranked poorly. He tends to have a fly-ball swing path with a reasonable floor in his HR/FB rate, but it ranked poorly with Tampa last year (5.7%).

Back-to-back RIDICULOUS plays by Jonny Deluca. 🤯 pic.twitter.com/6AYLHpHM30
— MLB (@MLB) July 22, 2023

Fantasy Outlook: His minor league approach (strikeout rate – 16.3 and walk rate – 10.3) paints a higher picture with the Rays and potentially a better slot in the batting order with more success at the plate. His contact batting average (.282) with Tampa was well below his previous career path (.334), suggesting correction this year. He is a tempting backend outfield flier, which will be helped by positive coach-speak in spring about his playing time and slot in the batting order. DeLuca is a player to follow in 2025 due to his 20/20 skill set, but he must hit the ball harder.

69 – Pavin Smith, ARZ (ADP – 501.1)

The structure of the Diamondbacks’ offense led to Smith stalling at AAA over the past two seasons despite posting competitive stats (.318 over 475 at-bats with 96 runs, 22 home runs, 100 RBIs, and three steals). His strikeout rate (16.6) graded well while posting an elite walk rate (16.4).

Smith’s best opportunity with Arizona came in 2021 (.267/68/11/49/1 over 498 at-bats). Over the next three seasons, he appeared in 204 games. His batting average (.222) was an area of weakness, but Smith had strength in runs (76), home runs (25), and RBIs (99) for his at-bats (573). He continued to have a favorable approach (strikeout rate – 20.5 and walk rate – 10.2) in the majors.

Last year, he had an improved exit velocity (90.2 mph), hard-hit rate (44.0), and HR/FB rate (22.0) with Arizona. In his time with the Diamondbacks, Smith has been very good with runners on base (RBI rate – 16 – 24% in 2024).

When Pavin Smith started the game 3-for-3 with 3 HR and 8 RBI against the Astros this year 😳💥@Dbacks pic.twitter.com/afzTx4ai9Y
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) December 30, 2024

Fantasy Outlook: Smith has the feel of a player who needs a starting job in the majors, but he has to prove his worth against left-handed pitching (.226/31/4/37 over 261 at-bats). His path to starting playing time will come at DH while competing with the Diamondbacks' three left-handed outfield options. Possible .280/80/20/80 player with 500 at-bats.

70 – Brandon Marsh, PHI (ADP – 309.4)

Marsh has the potential to be a much better player if he can get his strikeout rate (32.4) under control. His contact batting average (.394) has had a high floor over the past five seasons, offsetting some of his batting average risk. Over the last three years, he had gains in his average hit rate (1.683), painting a floor closer to 25 home runs with 500 at-bats. Marsh landed on the injured list in June with a hamstring issue.

He teased drafters last season after playing well in April (.269/10/6/17/3 over 93 at-bats). Over his final three months, his bat lost momentum (.229 over 214 at-bats with 29 runs, nine home runs, 29 RBIs, and 10 steals). Marsh has a platoon profile (.192 vs. lefties with six runs, one home run, eight RBIs, and two stolen bases) due to a higher strikeout rate (36.7). His bat was more productive at home (.270/35/12/35/9 over 215 at-bats).

His exit velocity (91.6 mph) was a career-high, with a slight fade in his hard-hit rate (47.4). Marsh posted a new top in his fly-ball rate (37.8), HR/FB rate (15.8), and launch angle (13.8).

Fantasy Outlook: The ceiling of Marsh has three weak links – slot in the batting order, weakness vs. lefties, and too many strikeouts. Success at the plate can improve two of these variables, and there are signs of more home runs coming. He finished ranked 106th in FPGscore (-1.52) for hitters, giving Marsh built-in value based on his draft ranking (184th) batter selected.

66 – Michael Conforto, LAD (ADP – 285.7)

67 – Jacob Young, WAS (ADP – 289.3)

68 – Jonny DeLuca, TB (ADP – 435.3)

69 – Pavin Smith, ARZ (ADP – 501.1)

70 – Brandon Marsh, PHI (ADP – 309.4)

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