Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Outfielders (Tier 4)
Early team structure sets the tone for the best way to attack the second group of outfielders in drafts. Last year, the OF2 ranked fifth for hitters by FPGscore (1.44). They hit .258 with 77 runs, 21 home runs, 80 RBIs, and 15 stolen bases over 548 at-bats. Here are the next tier of outfielders:
16 – Teoscar Hernandez, LAD (ADP – 67.3)
In 2023, I didn’t roster Hernandez on any teams. I knew he had a decent year, somewhat in line with his uptick in play over the previous three seasons. I had a double-take when I saw 211 strikeouts (31.1%) on his final stat line. His best production came in June (.303/15/6/18/1 over 89 at-bats) and August (.365 with 15 runs, seven home runs, 22 RBIs, and one steal over 104 at-bats). Over his other four months, Hernandez had 23 walks (4.9%) and 153 strikeouts (32.8%) over 422 at-bats. His bat had more value against lefties (.287/20/7/27/2 over 143 at-bats).
The fear of his bat falling off the strikeout cliff didn’t materialize in his first season with the Dodgers. Hernandez lowered his strikeout rate to 28.8% while posting a five-year high in his walk rate (8.1). Over the past two years, he averaged 607 at-bats, helping his success in the counting categories.
His bat produced the most over the final three months (.299/40/15/44/8 over 271 at-bats) of 2024. Hernandez hit four to six home runs every month, with his best damage coming at home (.275 with 38 runs, 20 home runs, 53 RBIs, and four stolen bases over 280 at-bats). On most nights, the Dodgers hit him fourth to sixth in the batting order.
Despite his success in power (33 home runs), Hernandez has a rising groundball rate (46.5), with some fade in his exit velocity (90.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (46.7%). His lower launch angle (10.3) didn’t hurt his HR/FB rate (22.4). In back-to-back seasons, he has had elite RBI chances (446 and 449).
Fantasy Outlook: Hernandez ranked 18th in FPGscore (4.68) for hitters last year, compared to 66th (0.78) in 2023. Los Angeles rewarded him with a three-year contract for $66 million in late December. His contact batting average (.399) remains in an elite area, helping offset some of his batting average risk from his high number of strikeouts. He comes off the board as the 41st hitter this season, forcing Hernandez to finish with a .250/75/30/90/10 season to earn his draft value. The Dodgers score many runs, and he’ll be in the middle of their lineup.
17 – Riley Greene, DET (ADP – 112.0)
Coming into last season, I didn’t like the direction of Greene’s power based on his weakness in his fly-ball rate in 2022 (23.9) and 2023 (24.8). My thought process was flawed as he improved his swing path last season (34.6%), highlighted by a career-low groundball rate (43.6). He finished with an uptick in his HR/FB rate (19.4) while ranking 36th in exit velocity (91.3 mph) and 42nd in hard-hit rate (47.1). His average hit rate (1.828) in 2024 supports 30+ home runs with 550 at-bats.
Greene landed on the injured list in late July with a hamstring issue, leading to 22 missed games. His uptick in power emerged in April (.257/24/7/15 over 105 at-bats), followed by a down May (.220/13/3/7/2 over 100 at-bats). He performed well in June (.283 with 13 runs, five home runs, 19 RBIs, and two steals over 99 at-bats) and September (.278/15/5/18 over 97 at-bats). On the downside, left-handed pitchers still hold an advantage over him (.213/18/6/22 over 141 at-bats ~ nine walks and 45 strikeouts).
His walk rate (11.0) moved into a competitive area. Greene had a career-low strikeout rate (26.7) but remains higher than the league average. He was a much better hitter with runners on base (RBI rate – 17), but Greene ranked low in RBI chance (307). The Tigers gave him all but one of his at-bats in the top four slots of their lineup.
Riley Greene makes his #Top10RightNow debut as the #5 left fielder in baseball, according to The Shredder! 🐯 pic.twitter.com/zgkwfgqiIB
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 30, 2025
Fantasy Outlook: Greene proved to be a value in drafts last season based on his finish in FPGscore (0.57 – 61st) for hitters, which almost matches his price point (63rd batter drafted) in the early drafts in the NFBC. He looks poised to bat third in 2025 while on a path to post a .275/90/30/80/10 season. Greene showed more speed in the minors (25-for-26), pointing more steals this year. I will be following his ADP in March.
18 – Bryan Reynolds, PIT (ADP – 93.8)
Based on experience and playing time over the past five seasons, Reynolds should rank higher in 2025 than his mid-January ADP (93.8) in the NFBC. He finished last year ranked 36th in FPGscore (2.25), a few notches below 2023 (3.58 – 31st). His plate appearances have been higher than 600 over the past four seasons.
From June through August in 2024, Reynolds hit .309 with 44 runs, 14 home runs, 44 RBIs, and five stolen bases over 295 at-bats. His counting stats were lower over his other 83 games (29/10/44/5 over 327 at-bats). He hit .261 over his final 234 at-bats with 28 runs, six home runs, 27 RBIs, and five stolen bases.
His fly-ball rate (32.2) is trending lower while having a high floor in his line drive rate (22.0). Over the past two seasons, Reynolds posted a higher hard-hit rate (45.1 in 2024 and 47.1 in 2023). His exit velocity (89.9) matched his career average. He finished with a career-low average hit rate (1.626).
Fantasy Outlook: The Pirates gave Reynolds all his at-bats in the second slot of their batting order. Pittsburgh ranked 24th in runs (665) last year, an area they must improve in 2025 for Reynolds to reach a higher ceiling in runs and RBIs. He has a league-average approach with strength in his contact batting average (.367). Reynolds is a solid piece to a fantasy team with some upside. He can’t be a difference-maker without delivering a much higher batting average or stealing more bases, one of which he did earlier in his career (.314 in 2019 and .302 in 2021).
19 – Seiya Suzuki, CHC (ADP – 86.8)
Suzuki has been almost the identical player over the past two seasons, except for a bump in stolen bases (16) in 2024. His contact batting average (.412) was a five-year high, partly due to a much higher strikeout rate (27.4 – 22.3 in 2023). He upped his walk rate (10.8).
Over his three seasons with the Cubs, Suzuki missed 105 games with a wide range of injuries – ankle (2), finger, wrist, oblique (2), and neck (2).
In 2024, he had a slow start (.258/20/5/19/2 over 132 at-bats) to the year due to missing 26 days in April and May. Suzuki helped fantasy teams over the next three months (.281 over 295 at-bats with 42 runs, 14 home runs, 45 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases). His batting average (.329) was better in September, but he posted weaker counting stats (12 runs, two home runs, nine RBIs, and four steals). Suzuki had 20 walks and 30 strikeouts over his final 105 plate appearances.
His exit velocity (91.7 – 31st) and hard-hit rate (48.9 – 24th) were career highs in the majors. He improved his swing path based on the rise in his launch angle (16.2) and fly-ball rate (46.9), but Suzuki had a slight step back in his HR/FB rate (12.6 – 14.8 in 2023).
Fantasy Outlook: With 21.6% of his potential playing time lost to injuries since arriving in Chicago, Suzuki has underachieved fantasy expectations over the past three seasons. He hits the ball hard with a high average when the ball is in play. His FPGscore (1.96 – 40th) was helped last year by his increase in stolen bases (16). The Cubs are pushing him to a higher DH role (59 games in 2024), but Suzuki wants to play in the field, creating a desire for him to get traded. I like his balanced skill set, but his injury path can’t be dismissed. To fill his draft day bucket, he must steal at least 10 bases with repeated at-bats or stay on the field for 20 more games. He is reasonably priced in the early draft season.
20 – Randy Arozarena, SEA (ADP – 138.5)
Despite posting his fourth consecutive 20/20 season, Arozarena was a shell of himself last year. I wrote 27 weekly recaps about the NFBC main event overall winner (Clark Olson) last season with him on the team, and I believe I only mentioned him once for a hot week. His RBI rate (10) was one of the worst in baseball, leading to only 42 RBIs in his 425 chances.
He hit .196 over the first three months of 2024, leading to 35 runs, 11 home runs, 28 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases over 281 at-bats. After some improvement over 69 at-bats (.275/10/4/9/6) in July, Tampa shipped him to the Mariners. Arozarena failed to make an impact over his final 54 games (.231 over 199 at-bats with 32 runs, five home runs, 23 RBIs, and four steals). His bat lost value against right-handed pitching (.214/52/13/41/15 over 398 at-bats).
His strikeout rate (28.5) was a five-year high while maintaining a favorable walk rate (11.7). He had a fade in his contact batting average (.316 – .354 in 2023) for the third consecutive season. Arozarena ranked 67th in exit velocity (90.4 mph) and 43rd in hard-hit rate (43.5), with both metrics almost matching his career averages. His fly-ball rate (41.0) is trending higher at the expense of his line drive rate (14.4 – 18.1 in his career). He posted the lowest HR/FB rate (12.7) in his time in the majors.
2024 PItchingNinja Award for Most Disrespectful At-Bat. 🫣🏆
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) November 5, 2024
Winner: Randy Arozarena (vs. Gerson Garabito) pic.twitter.com/6q2kGpVKQC
Fantasy Outlook: Arozarena slipped to 92nd in FPGscore (-0.98) for hitters due to his glaring weakness in batting average and RBIs. Over his previous three seasons, he finished 35th (3.26), 19th (6.08), and 32nd (2.82). His one positive in 2024 was the rise in his average hit rate (1.775), suggesting over 30 home runs if repeated over 550 at-bats. The good outweighs the bad on his professional resume, making him a value this season. There is a good chance Arozarena hits one slot in the batting order from Julio Rodriguez, creating an upside opportunity in runs or RBIs. Let’s go with .265 with 85 runs, 25 home runs, 80 RBIs, and 25 stolen bases.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.