Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Outfielders (Tier 8)

Shawn Childs | Feb 17, 2025

New York Mets left fielder Brandon Nimmo / Jovanny Hernandez/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

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We continue to rank the top outfielders entering the 2025 fantasy baseball season. Let's break down the next tier:

36 – Brandon Nimmo, NYM (ADP – 176.9)

Over the past three seasons, Nimmo has been a winning investment for the Mets and fantasy teams. He finished 53rd (1.39), 71st (0.52), and 47th (1.24) in FPGscore for hitters over this span while averaging 581 at-bats. His RBI chances (392) and average hit rate (1.781) were career-highs, leading to more time batting second and third. Nimmo added steals (15) and more RBIs (90) to his stats line, offsetting a severe slide in batting average (.224) and contact batting average (.310).

His strikeout rate (23.8) was his highest since 2019 (28.0%). He continues to have a favorable walk rate (11.6). Nimmo posted career highs in exit velocity (91.8 and 91.9 mph) and hard-hit rate (47.7 and 47.4) over the past two years. He had a balanced swing path with a rising HR/FB rate (14.6).

Despite success in overall production last season, his batting average was a liability in April (.208), May (.222), July (.188), August (.228), and September (.190). Nimmo played at his highest level in June (.315/24/6/21/1 over 92 at-bats). He only hit .215 vs. right-handed pitching with 65 runs, 19 home runs, 71 RBIs, and nine stolen bases over 418 at-bats.

"We've set a new standard for this team." - Brandon Nimmo knows the expectations are high. pic.twitter.com/T776YwA1ah
— New York Mets (@Mets) February 15, 2025

Fantasy Outlook: Nimmo has the approach to bat leadoff for New York in 2025, but the addition of Juan Soto changes the structure of the top of their lineup. The Mets have him locked up for the next seven seasons, so they believe in his bat. I expect a rebound in batting average with an 80/20/70/5 outcome in his counting categories.

37 – Ceddanne Rafaela, BOS (ADP – 178.5)

Over his first two years in the minors between rookie ball and single-A, Rafaela hit .249 with 103 runs, 16 home runs, 71 RBIs, and 32 stolen bases over 558 at-bats. His bat has been sensational over the past two seasons over three levels (.300/162/41/164/65 over 923 at-bats), giving Boston hope that they have a late-blooming stud centerfielder. His defense is top-shelf.

Last season, Rafaela made the Red Sox out of spring training, drawing fantasy hype in March in the high-stakes market. Despite hitting .211 over his first 194 at-bats, his bat delivered helpful stats in runs (28), home runs (7), RBIs (33), and stolen bases (7). Other than his approach (eight walks and 72 strikeouts), he was a much better player over his next 282 at-bats (.284/37/7/30/10). Rafaela hit .191 over his final 68 at-bats with five runs, one home run, and 12 RBI, but he didn’t take a walk with 25 strikeouts.

His approach (strikeout rate – 26.4 and walk rate – 2.6) needs plenty of work. Rafaela ranked 182nd (out of 207 batters with 400 plate appearances or higher) in exit velocity (86.6 mph) and 151st in hard-hit rate (36.9). On the positive side, his launch angle (14.9) promoted more power when he gets stronger. He had a higher average hit rate (1.697) in the minors and was above his finish with the Red Sox (1.582).

Fantasy Outlook: Rafaela had his AAA development year in Boston last year, suggesting a much better season in 2025. His minor league resume paints a higher picture of power and stolen bases while offering a free-swinging approach. His defense is a huge plus, and he also saw time a 2B (5), 3B (4), and shortstop (82) last year. The Red Sox gave him 500 of his 544 at-bats (91.9%) in the eighth and ninth slots in their batting order, which lowers his ceiling in runs and RBIs. Rafaela ranked 72nd in FPGscore (-0.15) for hitters in 2024. Sneaky cheat at shortstop with the tools to be a .270/80/20/75/30 hitter in his sophomore campaign, making Rafaela an excellent target based on his price point (102nd hitter drafted in mid-January).

38 – Lane Thomas, WAS (ADP – 189.3)

Washington had Thomas in their starting lineup almost every day in 2023. He rewarded their trust with career highs in nearly every category, giving the fantasy market a winning value addition to their teams. He scored an incredible 50% of the time when on base via a hit or walk, with a spike in his contact batting average (.372). Thomas played much better at home (.312/51/15/14 over 298 at-bats) and before the All-Star break (.302/41/14/37/12 over 354 at-bats).

Outfielder Lane Thomas / Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

After a slow start to last season over 87 at-bats (.184/6/2/10/11), Thomas landed on the injured list for 33 days with a left knee injury. He regained his form over his next 55 games (.282 over 213 at-bats with 36 runs, six home runs, 30 RBIs, and 17 stolen bases) before getting traded to the Guardians. Unfortunately, his swing was a liability in August (.143/9/0/3/3 over 77 at-bats). He hit seven home runs over the final month with 13 runs, 20 RBIs, and one stolen base. Thomas was at his best against left-handed pitching (.302 with 18 runs, four home runs, 16 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases over 126 at-bats).

His strikeout rate was 34.8% with Cleveland, compared to 26.0% on the year. He finished with about a league-average walk rate (8.3). Thomas ranked 118th in exit velocity (88.8 mph) and 108th in hard-hit rate (40.6). His launch angle (17.0) was a career-high, but he posted a four-year low in HR/FB rate (10.9).

Fantasy Outlook: Thomas surprised in 2023 while giving away two months of stats last year, one due to an injury and the other via confidence issues after his midseason trade. He attempted 40 steals with the Nationals (they led the NL in stolen bases – 223) while only getting the green light six times (4-for-6) with the Guardians. If Thomas plays better in 2025 and hits one slot away from Jose Ramirez, his value in runs or potential RBIs should rise. He has the baseline of a .250 hitter with a floor of 20 home runs and 20 steals with 550 at-bats. He is mispriced in the early draft season, creating a buying opportunity.

39 – Tommy Edman, LAD (ADP – 184.6)

In 2023, St. Louis banished Edman to the bottom third of their lineup for 260 at-bats, lowering his opportunity in the counting stats. He missed about three weeks in July with a right wrist injury that led to surgery in early January. In the fantasy market, his bat was worthless in June and July (.200/15/1/8/6 over 100 at-bats). His best outcome came in August (.250/13/5/12/6 over 104 at-bats).

Edman never played a game for the Cardinals last season due to his slow recovery from his wrist issue. The Dodgers acquired him at the trade deadline. He returned to game action in mid-August, leading to a productive 139 at-bats (20/6/20/6) except for his batting average (.237). Edman won the NLCS MVP award after going 11-for-27 with five runs, one home run, 11 RBIs, and one steal.

His exit velocity (87.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (35.1) were slightly below his career path, but he had a higher launch angle (11.4), a career-high fly-ball rate (37.8), and an HR/FB rate (14.3). Edman's contact batting average has been lower than .330 over the past five seasons. He took more walks (7.2%) in 2024 and had a favorable strikeout rate (19.6).

TOMMY EDMAN STRIKES AGAIN! #WORLDSERIES pic.twitter.com/XZ50jg5j3M
— MLB (@MLB) October 27, 2024

Fantasy Outlook: The Dodgers will play Edman in center field this year while hitting in the bottom third of their lineup. He was once considered a competitive piece of fantasy team, thanks to elite plate appearances in 2021 (691) and 2022 (630). I could see a career-high in home runs based on his uptick in his average hit rate (1.758), but it was a short sample size. With 550 at-bats, possible .260 with 60 runs, 15 home runs, 55 RBIs, and 30 stolen bases.

40 – Parker Meadows, DET (ADP – 181.3)

There wasn’t much major league excitement in the bat of Meadows over his first three seasons in the minors. He only .224 over 902 at-bats with 124 runs, 19 home runs, 95 RBIs, and 26 stolen bases. Meadows grew into his body in 2022 and 2023, leading to a much more powerful hitter (.263 with 158 runs, 39 home runs, 123 RBIs, and 36 steals over 935 at-bats).

Last season, he made the Tigers’ opening day lineup out of spring training, but his empty bat (.096/9/2/11 over 73 at-bats with 32 strikeouts) led to a demotion to AAA in early May. Meadows regained his form in the minors (.292 over 202 at-bats with 39 runs, eight home runs, 25 RBIs, and 19 stolen bases). Detroit slipped back in their starting lineup over the final two months, leading to much better results (.296/28/6/23/5 over 186 at-bats). His strikeout rate (20.9) was much improved.

His exit velocity (86.8) and hard-hit rate (31.1) weren’t assets. Meadows had a career-high fly-ball rate (47.9), much higher than his total at AAA (40.8%). He tends to hit many infield flies (easy outs) with strength in his launch angle (18.7 in the minors – 20.1 at AAA in 2023). His strikeout rate (25.5) for the season with the Tigers was below the league average.

Parker Meadows hits a go-ahead grand slam with the @Tigers down to their last strike! 🤯 pic.twitter.com/XdGZXdok42
— MLB (@MLB) September 6, 2024

Fantasy Outlook: Anyone drafting Meadows this season must decide if his bat is good enough to secure a top-two slot in Detroit’s lineup. His walk rate (8.4) in the majors supports a top-of-the-order opportunity. He's improving with 20/20 potential, so it’s all about his value in counting stats. His batting average projects to be a slight liability early in his career.

36 – Brandon Nimmo, NYM (ADP – 176.9)

37 – Ceddanne Rafaela, BOS (ADP – 178.5)

38 – Lane Thomas, WAS (ADP – 189.3)

39 – Tommy Edman, LAD (ADP – 184.6)

40 – Parker Meadows, DET (ADP – 181.3)

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