Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Starting Pitcher Bargain Values
The baseline of an ace pitcher was 14 wins with a sub-3.00 ERA and more than 200 strikeouts. The target for a second-tier ace last season was 13 wins with a 3.44 ERA, 1.117 WHIP, and 187 strikeouts over 177.9 innings. Here are Fantasy on SI's starting pitcher rankings (21-25).
21 – Shota Imanaga, CHC (ADP – 75.4)
Other than a blemish in 2018 (9-13 with a 4.68 ERA and 157 strikeouts over 140.1 innings), Imanaga has had an outstanding career in Japan over eight seasons. He went 74-55 with a 2.96 ERA, 2.96, 1.076 WHIP, and 1,183 strikeouts over 1,129.2 innings. His walk rate (2.4) and strikeout rate (9.4) were areas of strength. In January last season, the Cubs signed Imanaga to a four-year $53 million deal.
Imanaga kicked in the fantasy door over his first nine starts in 2024 (5-0 with a 0.84 ERA, 0.913 WHIP, and 58 strikeouts over 53.2 innings). He gave back some of his gains in two disaster starts (17 runs, 21 baserunners, and five home runs over 7.1 innings) over his following five appearances. His left arm rebounded over his final 14 appearances (8-1 with a 2.75 ERA, 0.940 WHIP, and 90 strikeouts over 88.1 innings) despite allowing 17 home runs (1.7 per nine innings). Imanaga gave up more than four runs once over the final three months.
His average fastball (92.0) was below the league average. He threw his four-seamer (.229 BAA) and split-finger fastball (.198 BAA) a combined 82.5% of the time while mixing in five other show-me pitches. Imanaga featured his slider (.238 BAA) as his second option vs. left-handed batters.
Fantasy Outlook: When comparing his rookie success with his resume in Japan, Imanaga did almost everything the same. He walked fewer batters with the Cubs while serving up the most long balls of his career. His approach to batters led to a high fly-ball rate (45.5), and many pulled balls (45.0%). Battles with home runs can lead to disaster innings and less confidence in command. These two aspects of his game could regress significantly in 2025, leading to Imanaga becoming a bad fantasy investment based on his price. Based on his FPGscore (4.89) in 2024, he was the sixth-best starting pitcher.
22 – Spencer Schwellenbach, ATL (ADP – 88.9)
The Nebraska Cornhuskers pitched Schwellenbach out of their bullpen in 2021, leading to a 3-1 record over 31.2 innings with a 0.57 ERA, 0.947 WHIP, 34 strikeouts, and 10 saves. Unfortunately, his right arm required TJ surgery shortly after Atlanta drafted him in the second round of the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft. His first appearance in the minors (Low A) didn’t come until April 6th in 2023.
Over his first 13 games in the minors, Schwellenbach went 4-2 with a 2.63 ERA and 41 strikeouts over 51.1 innings. A right shoulder issue knocked him out of action for seven weeks, leading to only three more appearances on the year at High A (three runs, five baserunners, and 14 strikeouts over 13.2 innings).
Last season, Atlanta started him at High A again (2.53 ERA over 32.0 innings with 34 strikeouts) before promoting him to AA. His arm was electric over his two starts (13 shutout innings with five hits, one walk, and 17 strikeouts), giving him the free pass to majors the following week.
Despite showing failure risk in ERA (5.68) over his first six starts with the Braves, Schwellenbach’s arm hinted at more upside based on his WHIP (1.295) while offering strikeouts (32 over 31.2 innings). His arm delivered ace stats over the final three months (7-3 with a 2.54 ERA, 0.957 WHIP, and 95 strikeouts over 92.0 innings).
His average fastball came in at 96.2 mph while working off six pitches – four-seamer (.238 BAA), slider (.217 BAA), cutter (.270 BAA), curveball (.250 BAA), split-finger (.145 BAA), and sinker (.231 BAA). Schwellenbach had elite command against right-handed batters (seven walks and 72 strikeouts), but lefties (.253 BAA) banged around his four-seamer (.297 BAA) and cutter (.326 BAA).
Among rookie SP in the second half of 2024 Spencer Schwellenbach ranked:
— Ben Weaver (@weaver_cards) January 14, 2025
86 K’s- 1st
2.73 ERA- 3rd
5 Wins- 2nd
79 IP- 1st
0.975 WHIP- 3rd
6.62 SO/BB ratio- 1st
The Braves have another budding ace in the making 💥pic.twitter.com/REoTDgIQel
Fantasy Outlook: The first checkpoint for an elite arm is their first pitch strike rate, something Schwellenbach (67.1%) smashed in his rookie season. He even threw 69.3% overall strikes while offering depth in his repertoire. His only negative coming into 2025 is his increased workload (113.2 innings) from his 2023 season (65.0 innings pitched). When pairing this with his previous right shoulder issue, a drafter must add this information when deciding to invest in this exciting young arm. All signs point to a foundation ace for Atlanta, and he is on a path to make 32 starts in the majors this year.
23 – Shohei Ohtani, LAD (ADP – 142.9 ~ Pitcher Only Yahoo)
Ohtani allowed two runs or fewer in 23 of his 28 starts in 2022, highlighted by a 26.2-inning shutout string over four starts in June and July. He struggled in three outings (17 runs, 22 baserunners, and five home runs over 16 innings) on the year. Ohtani had double-digit strikeouts (68 over 39 innings) over a six-start stretch midseason. His best results came at home (7-4 with a 1.82 ERA and 119 strikeouts over 89 innings).
The following season, Ohtani blew out his right elbow for the second time on August 23rd. He had surgery on September 19th, but it wasn’t the standard Tommy John version. Instead, his doctor did a hybrid option (braided sutures and grafted UCL). When the lights come on for the 2025 season, Ohtani will have more than 18 months of recovery time, putting him on a path to pitch in April.
In 2023, he offered ace stats over his first over his first 11 starts (5-1 with a 2.91 ERA, 0.954 WHIP, and 90 strikeouts over 65.0 innings). His right arm backed up over his subsequent eight appearances (4.82 ERA, 1.350 WHIP, and 10 home runs over 46.2 innings) despite dominating in two matchups (two runs, 13 baserunners, and 22 strikeouts over 13.1 innings). Ohtani ended the year with a string of 20.1 shutout innings with 15 baserunners and 20 strikeouts).
His average fastball (96.8) remained elite. Batters hit .164 against his four-seamer. Ohtani had an exceptional split-finger fastball (.158 BAA), a dominating slider (.163 BAA and 80 strikeouts), and an improved low-volume curveball (.111 BAA). He had less success with his sinker (.333 BAA) and cutter (.296 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: Over his best two pitching seasons, Ohtani ranked 4th (6.65) and 24th (1.86) in FPGscore for starting pitchers. The Dodgers have plenty of pitching depth in 2025, so they won’t push him too hard on the pitching side. My initial thought is about 25 five-inning starts, putting him on a path to be an SP3 in 12-team formats. When on the mound, Ohtani has ace upside. He will be challenging to time as a pitcher in weekly lineups with dual eligibility while being an intriguing pitching option in daily leagues with a pitcher-only qualification.
24 – Bailey Ober, MIN (ADP – 80.1)
Injuries were a problem for Ober in 2022, leading to him missing two and a half months with a groin injury. When on the mound with the Twins, he posted a 3.21 ERA and 51 strikeouts over 56.0 innings.
Ober was an emerging arm the following season. He pitched over 110.0 innings for the first time in his career (167.0 between AAA and the majors). He tossed at least five innings in 24 of his 26 major league starts but only six innings in 12 outings (only once after July 23rd). Ober had a 2.76 ERA, 0.972 WHIP, .215 BAA, and 90 strikeouts over his first 94.2 innings. He crushed fantasy teams over six starts (21 runs, 47 baserunners, and eight home runs over 28.0 innings) midsummer while driving the bus home with success in September (2.08 ERA over 21.2 innings with three walks and 26 strikeouts).
The fantasy market gravitated toward his value arm last year due to plus command (1.8 walks per nine) and a rising strikeout rate (9.1). Unfortunately, Ober stumbled out of the gate in his first start (eight runs, 10 base runners, and three home runs over 1.1 innings). By the middle of June, he still had a 4.81 ERA with a more favorable WHIP (1.185). His correction in stats came over his next 75.0 innings (3.12 ERA, 0.853 WHIP, and 82 strikeouts) despite allowing nine runs, nine baserunners, and two home runs over two innings on August 26th. Ober didn’t win a game over his final nine appearances while struggling over his final four outings (5.32 ERA and five home runs over 23.2 innings).
He pitched up in the strike zone (50.3% fly-ball rate), which promoted more balls landing in the seats. His average fastball (91.7) aligned with his last two seasons. Ober succeeded with his changeup (.154 BAA), slider (.212 BAA), and show-me curveball (.000 BAA). Right-handed batters hit .277 with seven home runs off his four-seamer.
Fantasy Outlook: Ober set career highs in wins (12) and strikeouts (191) last season while finishing with an edge in WHIP (1.002). With 178.2 innings pitches, he looks poised to make 32 starts in 2025. The sum of his parts grade well while needing to fix his issues with home runs, especially against righties with his fastball. He is a steady, helpful arm but not a foundation ace. His next step should be a 3.50 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and 200 strikeouts. Ober was the 17th-best starting pitcher by FPGscore (2.48) last season.
25 – Pablo Lopez, MIN (ADP – 63.3)
Over the past two years, Lopez lowered his walk rate (2.2 and 2.0), highlighted by his improved first-pitch strike rate (68.9 and 67.4). He’s made 32 starts in three consecutive seasons while posting some variance with his strikeouts per nine innings (10.1, 8.7, 10.9, and 9.6). On the negative side, his hits per nine innings have risen since 2021 (7.8, 7.9, 8.2, and 8.7), along with more home runs allowed (1.0, 1.1, 1.1, and 1.3) per nine.
In 2024, Lopez had five disaster starts (31 runs, 45 baserunners, and seven home runs over 22.2 innings) over nine games from May 20th to July 5th (6.47 ERA, 1.334 WHIP, and 10 home runs over 48.2 innings). After 18 outings, his ERA (5.18) crushed teams, but his WHIP (1.192) suggested better days coming if fewer balls landed in the seats. Lopez posted a 2.81 ERA and 1.193 WHIP over his final 14 starts, with 82 strikeouts and nine home runs allowed. Over this span, he had one poor showing (9/22 – seven runs, 10 baserunners, and two home runs over four innings).
His arm didn’t have an advantage against left-handed pitching (.267 BAA) while showing more risk on the road (4.50 ERA) due to more home runs (16) and walks (27) over 98.0 innings.
Despite his regression, his average fastball (95.1) was a career-best, with a slight uptick in usage (39.8% - 35.1 in 2023). Lopez dominated with his four-seam fastball (.208 BAA) while offering two other plus pitches (slider – .238 BAA and curveball – .227 BAA). His changeup (.279 BAA) lost value in back-to-back seasons after being his best pitch in 2022 (.219 BAA) based on his usage (35.2%). Last year, left-handed batters had more success vs. his changeup (.285 BAA) and slider (.302 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: Lopez falls into my avoid category I mentioned earlier in Corbin Burnes’s profile. I’m fading pitchers in 2025 with a decline of one strikeout per nine innings. I don’t like Lopez's direction. He’s giving up more home runs and hits, leading to too many bad days. If his search party can find his lost changeup, his overall package in 2025 would be more enticing. I have trust issues, and 24 starting pitchers were better than him last season. Any investment in him this year requires a spring training watch to see if his pitch mix changes.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.