Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Starting Pitchers 41-45

Shawn Childs | Feb 11, 2025

New York Mets pitcher Kodai Senga / Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

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We continue to rank the top starting pitchers heading into the 2025 fantasy baseball season. Fantasy on SI breaks down the next tier of pitchers:

41 – Jack Flaherty, DET (ADP – 138.7)

As Flaherty's outstanding 2019 season (2.75 ERA, 0.968 WHIP, and 231 strikeouts over 196.1 innings) drifts off his five-year resume, he teased the fantasy market again with a rebound in success in 2024. From 2020 to 2023, he was losing investment (23-15 with a 4.42 ERA, 1.398 WHIP, and 315 strikeouts over 299.0 innings), other than a winning half year in 2021 (3.22 ERA, 1.060 WHIP, and 85 strikeouts over 78.1 innings).

Last season, Flaherty was an excellent value option in drafts with the Tigers despite struggling twice over his first five starts (4.91 ERA, 1.159 WHIP, and five home runs over 29.1 innings with 36 strikeouts). His arm delivered ace stats over his next 13 starts (7-4 with a 2.21 ERA, 0.879 WHIP, .192 BAA, and 97 strikeouts over 77.1 innings). He missed a couple of weeks in early summer with a back issue that required treatment twice in June. His arm back up over 10 starts with the Dodgers (6-2 with a 3.58 ERA, 1.283 WHIP, and 61 strikeouts over 55.1 innings). Flaherty lost his way in the postseason (1-2 with 18 runs, 33 baserunners, and six home runs over 22.0 innings with 15 strikeouts), which many fantasy drafters will overlook.

His fly-ball rate (37.8) was his highest since 2019, and he also saw a rise in his HR/FB rate (15.5). Flaherty has a league-average fastball (93.4), over one mph lower than in 2019. He stopped throwing a cutter in 2024, leading to a few more four-seamers (.237 BAA with 90 strikeouts), sliders (.239 BAA with 55 strikeouts), and curveballs (.182 BAA with 58 strikeouts). He barely threw his sinker and changeup.

Fantasy Outlook: When evaluating Flaherty for 2025, the fantasy market must decide how much weight they want to put on his back issue. The end of his year suggests he wasn’t healthy, and his injury isn’t going away. Overall, in the regular season, Flaherty has the best command of his career, especially in Detriot (walk rate – 1.6 and strikeout rate – 11.2). I fear his struggles with home runs (1.3 per nine) hint at more risk than reward, along with the bombs (13) allowed by his slider. The win percentage in investing Flaherty has been low in his career, so I would temper my expectations even if he signs a big contract.

Update: Flaherty signed with the Detroit Tigers.

The Tigers have signed RHP Jack Flaherty to a two-year contract for the 2025-26 seasons.

Welcome back, Jack! pic.twitter.com/j0Z6nMcVuK
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) February 7, 2025

42 – Spencer Strider, ATL (ADP – 139.7)

Strider made the Braves’ opening-day roster in 2022. Over his first 12 appearances, he posted a 2.83 ERA, 1.094 WHIP, .178 BAA, and 44 strikeouts over 28.2 innings. His arm gave Atlanta 19 electric starts over the final four months of the season (2.62 ERA, 0.971 WHIP, .180 BAA, and 158 strikeouts over 103 innings). Strider completed six innings in 10 starts while tossing over 100 pitches over his final six appearances.

The Braves gave Strider 32 starts in 2023, leading the most strikeouts (281) in baseball with a league-high 13.5 strikeouts per nine and wins (20). He threw 90 pitches in all but four games while completing at least six innings in 11 contests. His underperformance in ERA (3.86) came from five poor starts (30 runs, 44 baserunners, and seven home runs over 20.1 innings with 32 strikeouts). After the All-Star break, Strider had a 4.39 ERA, 1.098 WHIP, .214 BAA, and 115 strikeouts over 82.0 innings). His command was exceptional against righties (14 walks over 341 at-bats).

Unfortunately, last season, Strider turned into a fantasy bust after developing a right elbow injury after two starts (seven runs, 15 baserunners, and two home runs over nine innings with 12 strikeouts). Instead of having a second TJ surgery, he choose to have internal brace surgery on April 13th. Strider has been throwing in January, but he is still expected to miss some this year.

When healthy in 2023, his average fastball (97.4) was one of the best in baseball. Batters had more success vs. his four-seamer (.256 BAA with 19 home runs over 426 at-bats). Strider had a devastating slider (.158 BAA – 148 strikeouts) and an improving show-me changeup (.151 BAA – rarely used against right-handed batters).

Spencer Strider, Gorgeous 82mph Curveball. 😍 pic.twitter.com/FPNGepqUTA
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 29, 2024

Fantasy Outlook: The fantasy market hopes to have Strider in their starting lineups and pitching at a high level by the end of May. Last year, Gerrit Cole missed two and a half months of the season and produced competitive SP2 stats over his 17 appearances. Based on some research, Strider could be back to full strength in 14 months. I view his recovery time frame as unknown, but the internal brace reports have been positive because it is a less invasive surgery. Strider’s two-pitch arsenal against righties may lose value the third time through the batting order, especially with any decline in his fastball. I’m skeptical about his value in 2025 while being treated as a buy-and-hold minor league prospect with proven results in the majors. I’ll wait to see his spring training reports before investing. On the downside, any hint of positive news will push him up draft boards, leading to different draft comparisons.

43 – Jared Jones, PIT (ADP – 138.9)

The Pirates drafted Jones in the second round of the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft out of high school. Over four seasons in the minors, he went 13-23 with a 4.33 ERA, 1.322 WHIP, and 407 strikeouts over 326.0 innings. Coming into 2023, he had 16 games of experience at AAA (4-5 with a 4.72 ERA, 1.317 WHIP, and 99 strikeouts over 82.0 innings). His walk rate (3.8) was a liability in the minors.

Last year, Jones made the Pirates starting rotation out of spring training. He allowed three runs or fewer over his first 10 starts, leading to a 3.05 ERA, 0.966 WHIP, and 68 strikeouts over 59.0 innings and created a buzz in fantasy leagues. His growth with Pittsburgh came from a much lower strikeout rate (1.5). On the downside of his early success was 10 home runs allowed. The Tigers and Rockies banged him around in two road games over his subsequent six appearances, leading to lost command (17 walks over 32.0 innings – 4.8 per nine) and a higher ERA (4.50) and WHIP (1.375).

Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Jared Jones / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The Pirates placed him on the injured list in early July due to a lat issue. After three appearances back at AAA (six runs, 12 baserunners, and 16 strikeouts over 11.0 innings), Jones made six more starts for Pittsburgh, but the luster left his arm (5.87 ERA, 1.435 WHIP, and six home runs over 30.2 innings with 34 strikeouts). His walk rate (2.9) improved significantly for the year in the majors, with a winning floor in his strikeout rate (9.8 – 26.2%).

Jones pitched well at home (2.87 ERA and 73 strikeouts over 69.0 innings), but batters got the best of him on the road (5.81 ERA and 10 home runs over 52.2 innings). He allowed a high hard-high rate (44.2) against him.

His average fastball (97.4) ranked with best starters in baseball. Jones worked off a four-seamer (.220 BAA) and slider (.207 BAA) as his top two pitches while mixing in a yet-to-develop changeup (.325 BAA) and tumbling curveball (.348 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: The recipe for success for Jones is pretty simple early in his career: get ahead in the count, allowing him to take advantage of his two-plus pitches (four-seamer/slider). Unfortunately, the lack of depth in his arsenal and inconsistency in command will lead to some disastrous outings. Temptation will lead drafters to expect more promising games in 2025. I expect WHIP risk out of the gate, and depth in games should hurt his value in wins. Exciting arm with value in strikeouts, but there will be some growing pains again this season.

44 – Yusei Kikuchi, LAA (ADP – 144.6)

Kikuchi emerged as a viable fantasy option after four failed seasons in the majors (21-31 with a 5.02 ERA, 1.424 WHIP, and 450 strikeouts over 466.1 innings) over the past two years. His improvement came from a much better walk rate in 2023 (2.6) and 2024 (2.3), with the latter leading to a push higher in his strikeout rate (10.6)

Last year, he set career highs in innings pitched (175.2) and strikeouts (206). Kikuchi opened the season with an excellent first 10 starts (2.64 ERA, 1.121 WHIP, and 61 strikeouts over 58.0 innings). The direction of his arm nosedived over his following 12 games (45 runs, 90 baserunners, and 13 home runs over 57.2 innings with 69 strikeouts) due to giving up four runs or more in seven of these contests. The Astros made a trade for him in late July, and he turned into an ace over 60.0 innings (5-1 with a 2.70 ERA, 0.933 WHIP, .188 BAA, eight home runs, and 76 strikeouts). Kikuchi served up 20 of his 25 home runs to right-handed batters (.248 BAA).

His average fastball (95.5) was the best of his career. He upped his curveball usage (18.6%) after retiring the pitch from 2020 through 2022. As a result, Kikuchi threw fewer sliders (.211 BAA) and four-seam fastballs (.268 BAA). His changeup (.194 BAA) remains his fourth option despite its winning success against righties.

New Angels SP Yusei Kikuchi’s 2024 between the Blue Jays and Astros

TOR: 4.75 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, .272 BAA, 26.2 K%

HOU: 2.70 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, .188 BAA, 31.8 K%

10.55 K/9, 7th highest in MLB! Got a nice 3-year $64M deal with LAA. #RepTheHalo pic.twitter.com/Zf0Fp4i9oX
— StatsBrad (@StatsBrad) January 25, 2025

Fantasy Outlook: Kikuchi ranked 40th in FPGscore (-0.29) for starting pitchers last year. His growth late last season was impressive, but what happened midseason? The move to the Angels doesn’t excite me due to LA being projected to have a losing record and possibly leaving him in a few games too long. In addition, any regression command will lead to earlier exits. Any drawn to his strikeouts could get crushed by his WHIP in 2025.

45 – Kodai Senga, NYM (ADP – 147.3)

Over 11 seasons in Japan, Senga went 104-51 with a 2.42 ERA, 1.095 WHIP, and 1,486 strikeouts over 1,340.2 innings. From 2018 to 2020, his walk rate (3.8, 3.7, and 4.1) graded as a liability. He threw more strikes (2.9 walks per nine) in 2021, leading to a 10-4 record with a 2.67 116 strikeouts over 111.1 innings. Senga delivered a 1.89 ERA and 159 strikeouts over 148.0 innings in 2022 while extending his winning season record (72-35) to eight years. He pitched over 150.0 innings only once since 2016 (180.1 – most of his career in 2019).

In his first year in New York, Senga had repeated success in ERA (2.98) while still having command issues (4.2 walks per nine). Over his first 13 starts, he allowed 19 runs, 38 baserunners, and seven home runs over 17.1 innings in four down games. Senga posted a 2.56 ERA, 1.137 WHIP, .211 BAA, and 115 strikeouts over his final 16 starts. He didn’t give up more than three runs over this span.

Last February, Senga developed a right shoulder injury that led to him making his 2024 debut on July 26th. He reward his supporters with an enticing game (two runs, three baserunners, and nine strikeouts over 5.1 innings), but the remainder of the regular season with lost due to calf injury that occurred in his only appearance. The Mets wheeled him out for three games in the postseason (seven runs, six hits, seven walks, and four strikeouts over five innings).

His 2023 average fastball (95.9 – 94.8 in his one game last year) had more velocity than expected. Senga earned his edge via his electric split-finger ghost ball (.113 with 113 strikeouts over 168 at-bats and 673 pitches thrown). His four-seamer (.234 BAA) and cutter (.238 BAA) were his top two pitches thrown by usage. He also mixed in a league-average sinker (.268 BAA – .188 vs. lefties) and show-me curveball (.143 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Heading into 2023, I suspected a shoulder issue may developed him based on his history in Japan. His loss of command in the playoffs suggests he wasn’t healthy. With no surgery to rectify his issue, it makes sense to fade Senga again this season. Sometimes player are motivated to show winning outcomes in spring training, which may be the case with him this year. Unfortunately, the ramp up in intensity with his arm and extra effort on the mound brings back his previous injury. He may surprise this year, but my risk-adverse approach will keep me far away from him this draft season, especially at his current price point.

41 – Jack Flaherty, DET (ADP – 138.7)

42 – Spencer Strider, ATL (ADP – 139.7)

43 – Jared Jones, PIT (ADP – 138.9)

44 – Yusei Kikuchi, LAA (ADP – 144.6)

45 – Kodai Senga, NYM (ADP – 147.3)

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