Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Starting Pitchers to Target in Final Rounds

Shawn Childs | Feb 13, 2025

San Diego Padres pitcher Yu Darvish / Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

We continue to rank the top starting pitchers heading into the 2025 fantasy baseball season. Fantasy on SI breaks down the next tier of pitchers:

71 – Yu Darvish, SD (ADP – 225.4)

The disaster dump for Darvish happened again in 2023. His season was somewhat on track over his first nine games (3.67 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, .227 BAA, and 57 strikeouts over 54.0 innings), but the bad outweighed the good by a wide margin over his final 15 appearances (5.14 ERA, 1.401 WHIP, 11 home runs, and 84 strikeouts over 82.1 innings). Over this span, he allowed four runs or more in eight starts. His season ended in late August with a right elbow issue (bone spur).

In 2024, Darvish regained his confidence and success on the mound over his first 56.1 innings (3.20 ERA, 1,065 WHIP, and 53 strikeouts). A groin issue pushed him to the injured list in early June, followed by a right elbow issue later in the month and a personal off-the-field issue in July. His return to the Padres starting rotation came on September 4th. Darvish posted a 3.55 ERA, 1.066 WHIP, and 25 strikeouts over his final 25.1 innings while handling himself well in two games in the postseason (three runs, eight baserunners, and two home runs over 13.2 innings with seven strikeouts). 

His overall velocity was down slightly on some of his pitches. He threw seven pitches – four-seamer (.209 BAA), slider (.213 BAA), sinker (.246 BAA), curveball (.163 BAA), split-finger (.200 BAA), cutter (.077 BAA), and changeup (.000 BAA) – with success. Despite the direction of his arm, his exit velocity against (89.4) and hard-hit rate (39.9) were career-highs.

Yu Darvish is the first Japanese-born pitcher to reach 2,000 career strikeouts! pic.twitter.com/TsMbxY6SyJ

— MLB (@MLB) September 22, 2024

Fantasy Outlook: The fantasy market has seen enough of Darvish based on his sliding ADP. He brings a professional approach while grading favorably in his command. The direction of his arm appears to be down based on his lower strikeout rate (8.6) and recent health woes (24 missed games over the past two seasons). I don’t view him as fantasy roadkill, but I won’t fight for him in drafts. Let’s see what his arm brings in spring training before racing to invest in his arm.

72 – Jesus Luzardo, PHI (ADP – 240.6)

Luzardo gave the fantasy market playable stats in 2023 despite moments of duress. Over five starts starting on May 21st, he allowed 18 runs, 29 baserunners, and four home runs over 26.1 innings, where his ERA (6.15) ranked much lower than his WHIP (1.101). Later in the year, Luzardo struggled to get batters out in four of seven matchups (24 runs, 54 baserunners, nine home runs, and 39 strikeouts over 35.1 innings). He gave up 19 of his 22 home runs over 528 at-bats to righties, with a .248 batting average. In addition, his arm was a significant liability on the road (4.48 ERA, 1.379 WHIP, and .276 BAA over 70.1 innings). 

Four starts into 2024, Luzardo buried fantasy teams by allowing 17 runs, 31 baserunners, and five home runs over 20.0 innings with 21 strikeouts. He corrected his stats over his following 31.2 innings (1.99 ERA, 0.884 WHIP, and 29 strikeouts) while missing almost three weeks with an elbow issue. Any hope of better outcomes was crushed after a disastrous game on June 4th (nine runs, 11 baserunners, and one home run over 4.1 innings). His season ended two games later due to a back injury that didn’t require surgery. Luzardo suggested his back, shoulder, and forearm issues cleared up in the offseason.

His average fastball (95.2) was a career low. Despite his struggles in 2024, Luzardo had three favorable pitches – a four-seamer (.223 BAA), slider (.200 BAA), and changeup (.197 BAA). Batters banged around his low-volume sinker (.419 and .807 SLG). 

Starters with best Whiff-K% in 2024 (min. 20 K% and 250 PA)

Jesús Luzardo - 8.7%
Reese Olson - 7%
Max Scherzer - 6.6%
John Means - 6.3%
José Buttó - 5.6%

Reese Olson was 2nd in FIP (3.17) for players 24 & younger.

Top 15% in Chase%, GB% and Barrel%pic.twitter.com/WhmGjR9P91

— Rays Ranter (@RaysRanter) February 10, 2025

Fantasy Outlook: In his time in the majors, Luzardo had underachieved his minor league resume (17-9 with a 2.94 ERA, 1.083 WHIP, and 278 strikeouts over 242.0 innings). His arm trended up in 2022 and 2023 (3.48 ERA, 1.151 WHIP, and 328 strikeouts over 279.0 innings). Trusting his health is a significant part of his higher ADP in 2025. At age 27, Luzardo enters the prime of his career with a risk/reward feel. Over the past three years, batters hit .227 against him, a sign of better days when paired with command stats. He is the right kind of gamble with no injury news, as long as his spring reports are positive and his ADP doesn’t rise. 

73 – Gavin Williams, CLE (ADP – 247.1)

After a dominating season in 2021 at East Carolina (10-1 with a 1.88 ERA and 130 strikeouts over 81.1 innings), the Indians added Williams with the 23rd pick in the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft. He handled himself well in 2022 between High A and AA (1.96 ERA and 140 strikeouts over 115 innings). 

Cleveland gave him another three starts at AA (one run over 14.1 innings with three walks and 20 strikeouts) in 2023. His command (4.1 walks per nine) regressed after his promotion to AAA, but Williams still had success (2.93 ERA and 61 strikeouts over 46.0 innings). He made his major league debut on June 21st (four runs, seven baserunners, and one home run over 5.2 innings). Over his next 15 starts, Williams had a 3.07 ERA, 1.258 WHIP, .220 BAA, and 77 strikeouts over 76.1 innings. His only poor showing came in late August (five runs, 10 baserunners, and one home run over 4.1 innings).

Cleveland Guardians pitcher Gavin Williams / Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Williams developed an elbow injury last March, leading to two months on the injured list. He posted a 4.76 ERA, 1.471 WHIP, and two home runs over his 17.0 innings in the minors with 24 strikeouts. Over his 16 starts with the Guardians, he allowed two runs or fewer in eight games without any sign of consistency.

Right-handed batters hit .275 against him. His arm was a disaster at home (0-7 with a 6.55 ERA, 1.697 WHIP, and 42 strikeouts over 33.0 innings).   

Williams had plus velocity on his fastball (96.7 mph). He ditched his slider in favor of a cutter (.203 BAA). His curveball (.147 BAA) was an asset with strikeout ability (30). Batters had success with his four-seamer (.289 BAA) and his low-volume changeup (.364 BAA). 

Fantasy Outlook: Pairing an elite fastball with two elite swing-and-miss breaking pitches should lead to much higher success on the mound. Williams doesn’t have an off-speed pitch of value, and the command of his heater isn’t there in and out of the strike zone. I liked his arm in 2024, but his added injury risk does paint a questionable picture this draft season. Williams isn’t far off, so pay attention to his arm this spring, as his arm could come fast.

74 – Jeffrey Springs, OAK (ADP – 250.2)

After losing Shane Baz in 2022, Tampa moved Springs into the starting rotation in early May. In a matter of three starts, fantasy managers scooped him off the waiver wire. Over his first 10 games, he had a 3.00 ERA and 56 strikeouts over 51 innings, but home runs (10) were still an issue. Springs corrected his problems with the long ball (four home runs over 71.1 innings) after the All-Star break, leading to a 2.40 ERA and 74 strikeouts.

After three excellent starts into 2023 (2-0 with one run, eight baserunners, and 24 strikeouts over 16.0 innings), he suffered a left elbow injury that required TJ surgery. The Rays gave 12 rehab appearances in the minors (4.50 ERA, 1.334 WHIP, and three home runs over 32.0 innings with 36 strikeouts) before calling him back to the majors in late July. He went 2-2 over seven games with a 3.27 ERA, 1.364 WHIP, and 37 strikeouts over 33.0 innings. Spring ended the year on the injury list with another elbow issue.

His average fastball (90.0) was below the league average and over 1.5 mph lower than his 2022 season. He lost his changeup (.333 BAA) while having winning success with his four-seamer (.212 BAA) and slider (.191 BAA). 

Fantasy Outlook: Springs pitched well in the majors over the past four seasons, leading to an 18-8 record with a 2.63 ERA, 1.079 WHIP, and 268 strikeouts over 229.0 innings. His second elbow issue is a concern, but it could be minor. The move to the Sutter Health Park will be a wild card. Most expect a more offensive-favoring experience due to warmer weather and less foul ground territory. With a rebound in his changeup and an uptick in velocity, Spring should be a serviceable backend starter in deep formats. His spring reports will drive his 2025 fantasy value.

75 – Walker Buehler, BOS (ADP – 248.4)

The dream of Buehler helping fantasy turned into a runaway nightmare in 2024. He opened the season on the injured list due to his slow recovery from TJ surgery (August of 2022). His stats were reasonable over his first five games (4.32 ERA, 1.320 WHIP, and 24 strikeouts over 25.0 innings), but he allowed six home runs. After another three poor showings (14 runs, 23 baserunners, and four home runs over 12.0 innings with four strikeouts), the Dodgers placed him on the injured list with a hip injury.

Two months later, anyone picking up Buehler off the waiver wire received a 4.93 ERA, 1.591 WHIP, and six home runs over 38.1 innings with 33 strikeouts. Somehow, his arm rebounded over his final three appearances in the postseason (no runs, nine baserunners, and 13 strikeouts over 10.0 innings), coming on the heels of a disaster outing (six runs and eight baserunners over five innings) in the first round of the playoffs.

Beantown's newest addition: Walker Buehler 😤 pic.twitter.com/i36Wb52Q4o

— MLB (@MLB) December 28, 2024

The Red Sox signed Buehler to a one-year contract for $21 million in late December with the hopes of unlocking the keys to his arm. 

His average fastball (94.9) was about 1.75 mph lower than his best season in 2019. He threw more sinkers (.288 BAA) while only having two pitches of value – curveball (.227 BAA) and slider (.217 BAA). Batters drilled his four-seamer (.320 BAA and .640 SLG). 

Fantasy Outlook: With a winter to clear his head and have a normal throwing offseason, Buehler hopes to unlock his previous success with the Dodgers. Faith is a key factor in believing in a rebound season. Team structure is a critical factor when adding him to a fantasy roster. I’m at a loss, but I also experienced the Buehler experience last year.

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