Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Third Basemen 11-15
Only three third basemen hit 30 home runs or more (Jose Ramirez – 39, Jake Burger – 31, and Eugenio Suarez – 30). Ramirez (114) was the only one to score over 100 runs, followed by Matt Chapman (98) and Suarez (90). Ramirez also led the way in stolen bases (41) and RBIs (118). Manny Machado (105) and Suarez (101) broke the 100-RBI mark, while Jazz Chisholm (40) and Maikel Garcia (37) ranked second and third in steals. Here are Fantasy on SI's top third basemen 11-15:
11 – Nolan Arenado, STL (ADP – 227.7)
After three steady but helpful seasons with the Cardinals, Arenado lost his power stroke last season, leading to a sharp decline in his average hit rate (1.452 – 1.842 over his first 11 years). His exit velocity (86.3 mph) was well below his career average (89.0) while ranking 184th in hard-hit rate (31.6) for batters with at least 400 plate appearances. He barreled only 16 balls, compared to 108 combined over the previous three seasons. Arenado lost his fly-ball swing path (39.1%) over the past two years, with a low-ranking HR/FB rate (8.3 – 14.4 in his career).
He battled a back injury in February, followed by four other minor issues (hand, elbow, forearm, and shoulder). His only month of value came in August (.303/15/4/18/1 over 109 at-bats), but Arenado did play better at home (.307 over 33 runs, eight home runs, and 40 RBIs over 277 at-bats).
His strikeout rate (14.5) almost matched his career average while seeing more weakness in his walk rate (6.9) over the past two seasons. Arenado had 50 fewer RBI chances (376) than his previous three seasons (435, 426, and 429). His lost run and RBI production resulted from him not driving himself in via a home run.
Post-100 ADP hitters who were once 1st round fantasy picks (current ADP):
— Vlad Sedler (@RotoGut) January 17, 2025
Christian Yelich (115)
Mike Trout (141)
Bo Bichette (144)
Paul Goldschmidt (176)
Nolan Arenado (215)
George Springer (241)
Trevor Story (248)
Carlos Correa (259)
Who are you most interested in at cost?
Fantasy Outlook: The quandary a drafter faces in 2025 is writing off Arenado’s bust season and trusting his return to his previous three years with St. Louis; the other option is to run and hide and avoid him at all costs. A 70/25/80 season would price Arenado as a sixth offensive piece to a fantasy team compared to the 134th-ranked hitter in the early draft season in the NFBC. The Cardinals will pay him $21 million this year, ensuring he’ll have every opportunity to regain his lost power stroke. A keen eye in March should help sway his draft value. His good outweighs his bad in his career, so take the at-bats, and his power should come along for the ride.
12 – Matt Chapman, SF (ADP – 137.0)
After stealing 11 bases over 23 attempts over his first seven years in the majors, Chapman turned into a speed demon (15-for-17 in stolen bases) in 2024. His added value in the steals category led to him finishing 32nd in FPGscore (2.76) for hitters.
His strikeout rate (24.4) was his best since 2019 (21.9 – 29.9% over his previous four years). He had a favorable walk rate (9.9) for his career. Chapman struggled with runners on bases over the past three seasons (RBI rate – 12.2, 9.6, and 13.6). His average hit rate (1.873) supports 30+ home runs with 550 at-bats, helped by his fly-ball rate (45.3 – 46.4 in his career). On the downside, Chapman has always had a high infield fly-ball rate (15.9), creating many easy outs and lowering his potential in batting average. His HR/FB rate (14.2) hasn’t approached his success in 2019 (19.0%) and 2020 (22.2%) with the A’s. Chapman ranked 12th in exit velocity (93.2 – mph) and 29th in hard-hit rate (48.3).
Last year, he had quiet home run and RBI production over the first four months (4/14, 4/13, 3/12, and 4/9) while grading better in runs (63). Chapman upped his power out over his final 173 at-bats (.260/25/12/30/3) while missing four games in September (paternity leave).
Fantasy Outlook: The Giants gave him 379 of his 573 at-bats (66.1%) hitting third and fourth in the batting order. Buying Chapman’s added value in stolen bases could be a trap. Over the past five seasons, he hit .232 while averaging 83 runs, 26 home runs, and 73 RBIs if given 550 at-bats. Pretty much low average power, with a glass ceiling for someone expecting a much better season in 2025.
13 – Isaac Paredes, HOU (ADP – 199.5)
In 2023, the Rays found a player with a higher ceiling than initially expected. Paredes set a career-high in runs (71), home runs (31), and RBIs (98). He only had 23 barrels, so his home run total (31) was driven by launch angle (22.2%). He profiles as a dead pull hitter.
His power stroke (16 home runs and 55 RBIs) remained intact over his 363 at-bats with Tampa, but Parades lost more ground in batting average (.245). A trade to the Cubs in late July led to below-replacement value stats (.223/23/3/25/1 over 179 at-bats). The Astros signed him to a one-year deal ($6.6 million) in early January.
Paredes only had 20 barrels last season, with a fading exit velocity (85.0 mph) and hard-hit rate (27.1). His average hit rate (1.651) came in well below the previous two years (2.118 and 1.951) while ranking poorly in his contact batting average (.291) while in the majors. He has a fly-ball swing path (45.8%), but many turn into infield flies (18.8% in his career). His HR/FB rate (9.4) last year was well below the previous two seasons (16.5% and 16.9%). Paredes has had a favorable approach (strikeout rate – 16.4 and walk rate – 11.9) in his career.
Fantasy Outlook: My first instinct on his outlook, before running through his profile, was to buy him in 2025. Like many other drafters, his success in power and RBIs in 2023 jumped off the page, and Paredes looked more comfortable at the plate last year. His first step is improving timing at the plate and stop diving under the ball. Torn, but with an open mind if the ball jumps off the bat in spring training.
14 – Eugenio Suarez, ARZ (ADP – 179.9)
Suarez played his way into the free-agent pool in many leagues over the first three months of last season (.196/29/6/32/2 over 276 at-bats). Over this stretch, he whiffed 29.2% of the time. Somehow, pitchers had a much more challenging time getting him out over his final 295 at-bats (.312 with 61 runs, 24 home runs, and 69 RBIs) while lowering the damage with his strikeout rate (25.8).
His contact batting average (.370) was slightly higher than in 2022 (.369) and 2023 (.362). Saurez had a rebound in his average hit rate (1.836), but it came in below his levels from 2020 to 2022 (2.325, 2.160, and 1.945). He continues to be a fly-ball hitter (43.6%) with a pull (51.7%) swing path. His HR/FB rate (16.9) has been below his career average (18.1) five times over the past seven years. Saurez ranked well below the best hitters in the game in exit velocity (89.1 – 111th) and hard-hit rate (42.4 – 85th).
For the year, his strikeout rate (27.5) was a six-year low. He took the fewest walks (7.7%) of his career. The Diamondbacks gave him 558 of his 573 at-bats hitting 5th through 7th in the batting order. Suarez outperformed expectations in his run rate (46 – 33% in 2023). He came to the plate with 433 runners on base.
Fantasy Outlook: His Jekyll and Hyde season may become a total disaster in 2025. He opened up his swing for power last season. Saurez should have expected regression in his strikeout rate, and he still has a sub-.200 batting average on his recent five-year resume. Saurez becomes a free agent in 2026, putting him in a contract season. Let’s go: .225 with 65 runs, 25 home runs, and 75 RBIs if he keeps a starting job.
15 – Matt Shaw, CHC (ADP – 206.7)
After success over three seasons (.320/172/53/166/37 over 693 at-bats) at Maryland, the Cubs selected Shaw 13th overall in the 2023 MLB June Amateur Draft. Chicago gave him 38 games over three levels in the minors in 2023, leading to a .357 batting average with 27 runs, eight home runs, 28 RBIs, and 15 stolen bases. Last year, he split time between AA (.279/60/14/50/25 over 312 at-bats) and AAA (.298/18/7/21/6 over 131 at-bats).
His average hit rate (1.720) in the minors is close to a 30-home-run hitter with 550 at-bats. Shaw had a favorable approach (strikeout rate – 17.3 and walk rate – 10.2), inviting a quick move up the batting order for the Cubs once his bat shows life in the majors.
Fantasy Outlook: With only 131 at-bats of experience at AAA, Shaw may need some time to find his stride with Chicago. He has an excellent chance of making the majors out of spring training, and his foundation skill set points to a 25/30 player early in his career. Speed at third base tends to be an advantage, highlighted by the success of Jose Ramirez in his career. Shaw has a David Wright feel while being a half-season away from hitting his stride.
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