Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top Starting Pitchers With 200+ ADP

Shawn Childs | Feb 13, 2025

Texas Rangers pitcher Nathan Eovaldi / Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images

We continue to rank the top starting pitchers heading into the 2025 fantasy baseball season. Fantasy on SI breaks down the next tier of pitchers:

61 - Nick Lodolo, CIN (ADP – 250.9)

In 2023, Lodolo looked sharp over his first three starts (four runs, 24 baserunners, and 27 strikeouts over 17.0 innings). He lost his way over his following four starts (20 runs, 36 baserunners, nine home runs, and seven hit batters over 17.1 innings). His failure was due to a stress reaction in his left tibia, costing him the final four months of the season.

A groin issue last year led to Lodolo missing two weeks in May. He went 8-2 over his first 11 starts with a 2.76 ERA, 1.010 WHIP, and 79 strikeouts over 65.1 innings. Unfortunately, his season ended with poor stats in seven of his final 10 matchups (41 runs, 72 baserunners, and seven home runs over 50.0 innings with 52 strikeouts). Lodolo picked up a blister issue in late June (IL stint), followed by a season-ending finger injury in late August.

His average fastball (94.2) gained some velocity. Lodolo continues to have a plus slider (.215 BAA and 65 strikeouts). His four-seamer (.182 BAA) and changeup (.235 BAA) were much better in 2024. Lodolo had a below-par sinker (.273 BAA) that he rarely used against lefties.

Fantasy Outlook: Injuries have gotten the best of Lodolo over three seasons with the Reds. He had a sharp decline in his strikeout rate (9.5 – 11.6 over his first two years in Cincinnati), but his pitch per plate appearance (3.8) was career-low while also improving his first pitch strike rate (66.3). Of all the pitchers in my SP5 grouping by ADP, Lodolo has the highest ceiling. He’s crushed some of my fantasy teams over the past two seasons, but I know a special season is coming if the Reds can keep him on the field for 32 games. Lodolo’s within range of a sub-3.00 ERA with 200+ strikeouts. On the downside, batters have been hit by him 44 times in his 47 career starts.

62 – Nathan Eovaldi, TEX (ADP – 199.7)

Over the past five seasons, Eovaldi posted an ERA under 4.00 (3.72, 3.75, 3.87, 3.63, and 3.80 each year, giving him winning fantasy value in this area for his price point over this span. His WHIP improved in 2023 (1.139) and 2024 (1.107), but he missed about 22 starts over the past three years.

Other than one bad game (five runs, 10 baserunners, and two home runs over six innings with three strikeouts), Eovaldi pitched well over his first seven starts (2.61 ERA, 1.161 WHIP, and 44 strikeouts over 41.1 innings) in 2024. After missing about a month beginning in early May (groin issue), his arm regressed over his following 16 starts (4.32 ERA and 15 home runs over 91.2 innings with 84 strikeouts) despite success in WHIP (1.075). He had a disaster showing on 9/17, leading to seven runs, 13 baserunners, and a home run over 4.2 innings. Eovaldi posted a 3.82 ERA and 1.142 WHIP over his final 37.2 innings with 38 strikeouts.

HE’S BACK!!!

The Texas Rangers have signed Nathan Eovaldi to a 3-year, $75MM deal pic.twitter.com/O3ItQinHgw

— Rangers Nation ⚾️ (@rangers__nation) December 11, 2024

His groundball rate (48.3) promotes weaker contact, but he still allowed 1.2 home runs per nine innings last season. Eovaldi still has life in his four-seamer (95.6 mph – .210 BAA) while relying heavily on his split-finger fastball (.198 BAA), followed by a fading cutter (.315 BAA) and winning curveball (.214 BAA). 

Fantasy Outlook: Eovaldi offers plus command with a reasonable floor in strikeouts. He doesn’t check the sexy fantasy tag, but when in the mound, his stuff plays well more often than it fails. The Texas have him tied up for another three seasons for $75 million. On the downside, Eovaldi pitched more than 170.0 innings twice (2021 – 182.1 and 2024 – 170.2) since 2014. 

63 – Tanner Houck, BOS (ADP – 217.4)

Over his first three seasons with the Red Sox, Houck has a 3.02 ERA with 164 strikeouts over 146 innings. 

Houck made the Red Sox starting rotation out of spring training in 2023 but never had an ERA under 4.25 on the year. His season began with 13 poor starts (5.05 ERA over 67.2 innings with 64 strikeouts). In mid-June, Houck took him a line drive to the face, leading to a couple of months on the injured list. He didn’t fire over his final eight games (4.93 ERA, 1.565 WHIP, and .271 BAA over 38.1 innings).

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Tanner Houck / Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

When the lights came on for the 2024 season, Houck was ready to rock and roll. He went 7-5 over his first 16 starts with a 2.18 ERA, 0.968 WHIP, and 101 strikeouts over 103.1 innings. The Padres batters drilled him in his final start in June (seven runs, 13 baserunners, and three home runs over 4.1 innings with four strikeouts), followed by a regression in his arm (3.80 ERA, 1.324 WHIP, and 49 strikeouts over 71.0 innings). 

His arsenal isn’t quite there against right-handed batters (.249 BAA). Houck continues to have a plus slider (.229 BAA with a 41.8% usage and 87 strikeouts – .187 in his career). The development of his arm came from a new changeup (.197 BAA) and minimal use of his cutter (.250 BAA). Batters hit .265 against his sinker, with 55.9% of his balls in play being groundballs. 

Fantasy Outlook: Houck won’t fit the profile of many fantasy drafters due to his fading strikeout rate (7.8), but he throws strikes and tends to keep the ball down and in the ballpark. Houck has the feel of a pitcher with a workhorse arm with untapped potential in strikeout. I see a poor man’s Roy Halladay with a lower ceiling in innings pitched and a different pitch mix. He is an intriguing backend fantasy starter, as he should pitch deep in games and take the ball every fifth day. 

64 – Clark Schmidt, NYY (ADP – 217.4)

Coming into 2023, Schmidt’s arm had an upside feel while gaining some draft momentum in the high-stakes fantasy market in late March. When the lights clicked on for the regular season, he was a liability over his first nine starts (6.30 ERA, 1.650 WHIP, and eight home runs over 40.0 innings). From May 19th to September 6th, he allowed three runs or fewer in 18 of his 19 starts, leading to a 3.84 ERA, 1.182 WHIP, and 91 strikeouts over 100.2 innings. In his one lousy day over this span, the Braves drilled him for eight runs and 11 baserunners over 2.1 innings. Schmidt posted a 5.40 ERA over his final 18.1 innings with four runs, eight walks, and 10 strikeouts. He pitched at least six innings in only five games while never throwing 100 pitches.

The new and improved Schmidt shined through over his first 11 starts last season, leading to a 5-3 record with a 2.52 ERA, 1.137 WHIP, and 67 strikeouts over 60.2 innings. Unfortunately, he suffered a lat injury in late May, putting him out of action for three months. Over his final five games, Schmidt posted a 3.65 ERA, 1.297 WHIP, and 26 strikeouts over 24.2 innings. He recorded the 18th out in a game only twice (6.2 and 8.0 innings). 

His average sinker (94.5 – .250 BAA) had an uptick in velocity, but Schmidt featured his cutter (35.4% usage) as his top pitch but not in success (.262 BAA – .216 vs. righties). He threw an improved slider (.197 BAA) while still offering a plus curveball (.156 BAA).

Sharing the wisdom. 1978 Cy Young Award winner, Ron “Gator” Guidry (25-3 that year), talking with the #Yankees new Co-Ace, Max Fried (left) and right-hander, Clark Schmidt at Spring Training @GMSField in Tampa. pic.twitter.com/MT35G9Vz6P

— Bruce Beck (@BruceBeck4NY) February 13, 2025

Fantasy Outlook: Schmidt fits the profile of an improving arm, but length (5.0 innings per start) has been an issue over the past two seasons. The sum of his parts is moving in a positive direction, even a fade in his walk rate (3.2 – weaker command after his return in September). I expect him to be a helpful arm this year while offering a sneaky ceiling if Schmidt can pitch 180.0 innings (he threw more than 112.0 innings once since 2015).

65 – Drew Rasmussen, TB (ADP – 228.0)

Rasmussen made 28 starts for the Rays in 2022, leading to an edge in ERA (2.84) and WHIP (1.041) over 146.0 innings. He was a strike-throwing machine (1.9 walks per nine), but his strikeout rate (7.6) was lower than expected. He missed three weeks in June with a hamstring issue. After the All-Star break, Rasmussen went 6-4 with a 2.45 ERA, 10 walks, and 63 strikeouts over 73.1 innings. 

After a great start to the season in 2023 (4-2 with a 2.62 ERA, 1.052 WHIP, and 47 strikeouts over 44.2 innings), Rasmussen blew out his right elbow in mid-May. He choose to have an internal brace procedure instead of TJ surgery in the middle of July. 

His first step back on a pitching mound came on July 21st last season at AAA. The Rays gave him five rehab outings (seven runs, 11 hits, and two home runs over 7.1 innings with 11 strikeouts) before calling him up a week into August. Tampa gave Rasmussen 16 short-innings appearances (two innings or fewer in all games while never throwing more than 37 pitches). His success (2.83 ERA, 1.081 WHIP, and 35 strikeouts over 28.2 innings) aligned with his previous two years with Tampa.

Rasmussen had a first-pitch strike rate higher than 73% in 2023 and 2024 while showing growth in strikeouts (28% - 10.1 per nine).

His average fastball (97.5) had an uptick due to shorter-inning stints. He worked off a four-seamer (.167 BAA), sinker (.316 BAA), and slider (.194 BAA) combination of pitches. Rasmussen continues to improve his groundball rate (53.3), and he didn’t allow a home run last season.

A fully-healthy Drew Rasmussen is excited to see the competition between this talented #Rays rotation in camp. There’s six quality arms for five rotation spots.

“It’s a very talented group, which I think puts us in a good spot,” Rass said. “Pitching and defense are the… pic.twitter.com/KmLoKNSRUc

— Ryan Bass (@Ry_Bass) February 13, 2025

Fantasy Outlook: Over four years with the Rays, Rasmussen went 19-11 with a 2.72 ERA, 1.031 WHIP, and 255 strikeouts over 278.1 innings. His recent success, ability to throw strikes, and improved strikeout rate will shine brightly for his ADP, but he must prove himself through the third time through the batting order while only pitching 80.2 innings over the past two seasons. Call me interested, but his arm will move up in drafts in March, leading to a different comparison with better arms. In 2022 and 2023, Rasmussen averaged 5.3 innings over 36 starts.

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