Big Names, Underdogs Facing Playoff Elimination at the Charlotte ROVAL
After a predictably unpredictable weekend at Talladega Superspeedway, the NASCAR Cup Series is headed to Charlotte Motor Speedway, to take on the newly reconfigured ROVAL, which promises to bring more excitement to the purpose-built road course.
Following Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400, the bottom four on the Playoff Grid will be eliminated from championship contention, with only eight drivers leading the Concord, North Carolina-based racetrack with a shot at winning the title.
William Byron is the only driver with peace of mind entering the weekend, while the 11 other playoff-eligible drivers have to lose sleep over the unpredictability that will come from the course’s brand-new layout.
The playoff-eligible drivers won’t just have to maneuver the racetrack on Sunday, as several non-playoff drivers threaten to spoil the party for the fourth time in six NASCAR Cup Series playoff events.
So, who is feeling good entering this weekend? Who is stressing out? And most dangerously of all, who has nothing to lose?
1. William Byron
After a pair of top-three results at Kansas (second) and Talladega (third), William Byron has earned enough points to lock himself into the next round of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.
OUTLOOK - UNTOUCHABLE: Byron's main objective for Sunday's Bank of America ROVAL 400 is to enjoy the final pressure-free afternoon of the season, and earn as many Playoff Points as possible, through stage or race wins.
2. Christopher Bell
Christopher Bell was able to survive the chaos at both Kansas Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway, collecting finishes of seventh and sixth-place, the combination of which has put him in a near-perfect position to advance into the 'Round of 8'.
The Joe Gibbs Racing driver heads to Charlotte's ROVAL, a racetrack he's previously won at (albeit configured differently), needing to record a 26th-place finish without stage points to clinch his spot in the next round.
OUTLOOK - FEELING CONFIDENT: Barring the absolute perfect storm of catastrophes in Sunday's Bank of America ROVAL 400, Christopher Bell should be able to slide into the 'Round of 8' with ease.
3. Kyle Larson
In an interesting turn of events, a top-five at Talladega helped Kyle Larson to recover from a poor 26th-place showing at Kansas, the only "normal" track in this round of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.
Larson sits in a solid position entering Sunday's Bank of America ROVAL 400, holding a 52-point advantage over the cutline. Thus, a 21st-place finish would clinch him a position in the 'Round of 8' no matter what anybody else does.
OUTLOOK - FEELING GREAT: Much like Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson would need to have some extreme misfortune, and some good fortune for others, in Sunday's event to be eliminated from the playoffs.
4. Denny Hamlin
After barely advancing to the second round of the Playoffs, solid top-10 results at Kansas and Talladega have put Denny Hamlin in a much better position heading into the second elimination race of the post-season.
With a 30-point advantage on the cutline, a 38-point day (equivalent to a second-place finish and three stage points) would guarantee him a spot in the ‘Round of 8’, no matter what anybody else does. Without reaching that number, the No. 11 team would start to sweat if one of the four drivers below the cutline were in contention for the victory, as his advantage would nearly be cut in half, down to 17 points.
OUTLOOK - PLEASE, NO NEW WINNER: As long as Hamlin has a solid afternoon, and nobody from below the cutline (Logano, Suarez, Cindric, or Briscoe) goes to Victory Lane, his advantage should keep him safe. If one of the aforementioned four drivers do win, though, the fight gets more intense.
5. Alex Bowman
Alex Bowman has been one of the strongest drivers through the first half of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, earning more than 25 points in all five events, thus far. As the playoff field gets smaller, though, the lack of playoff points has more of a detriment.
The Hendrick Motorsports driver enters Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400 with a 26-point advantage on the cutline, which on a newly reconfigured road course, which has already garnered a reputation for being chaotic, probably isn’t enough to be comfortable.
Bowman can guarantee his position in the next round with a 42-point day on Sunday, equivalent to second-place finish and seven stage points. It’s not an easy task by any means, but for one of the top points scorers on road courses, it’s not out of the question.
OUTLOOK - BRING IT HOME IN ONE PIECE: With a solid points advantage heading into Charlotte’s ROVAL, Alex Bowman is likely feeling better than much of the post-season field, but like those around him, the problem comes if one of the four drivers below the cutline goes to Victory Lane, slashing his gap from 26 points to a miniscule 13 points.
6. Ryan Blaney
If Ryan Blaney is to advance into the ‘Round of 8’ and keep his hopes of going back-to-back alive, it’s imperative that luck be on his side. But, after the last seven weeks on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit, that’s probably not something the Team Penske driver wants to hear.
The 30-year-old driver has four crash-related DNFs in the last seven events, including two in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs at Watkins Glen International and Talladega Superspeedway. The only piece of good news to follow, is that the rest of his playoff results have been sixth or better.
With a 25-point advantage on the playoff cutline, Blaney really just needs to have an incident-free afternoon and bring a solid finish home for his No. 12 Ford Mustang Dark Horse. A 43-point day (second place and eight stage points) would lock him in no matter what.
OUTLOOK - WATCHING HIS TEAMMATES: The entire situation for Blaney, and those around him in points, would change completely if one of the four drivers below the cutline (two of which are teammates Joey Logano and Austin Cindric) wins on Sunday. Blaney’s gap, sitting at 25, would be reduced to 12, and the battle would be reduced to a slugfest between several competent drivers and teams.
7. Tyler Reddick
Tyler Reddick and 23XI Racing were able to win the regular-season championship this season by having fantastic speed, form, and consistency. Those qualities, however, have not transferred into the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.
The Corning, California-native is eternally grateful for those Playoff Points, though, after scraping together finishes of 25th and 20th at Kansas and Talladega. That’s left Reddick just 14 points above the cutline.
Reddick would need to earn 54 points (a second-place result and 19 stage points) to guarantee himself a spot in the next round, no matter what anybody else does. Doing that could prove to be difficult, considering the team’s raw pace as of late.
OUTLOOK – ON THE HOT SEAT: Yeah, Tyler Reddick is going to be feeling the pressure in Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400, no doubt. With some talented road races below him in standings, and the unpredictability of a newly configured racetrack, the No. 45 team has a reason to be nervous.
Though, things will really fly off the handle if one of the four drivers below the cutline wins Sunday’s race, as that will leave his advantage as a single point over Chase Elliott, and the driver in front of him in standings (Ryan Blaney) 11 points ahead.
8. Chase Elliott
It’s been a quiet season for Chase Elliott, the 2020 champion of the NASCAR Cup Series, collecting only one victory earlier this season at Texas Motor Speedway. But, throughout the playoffs, the No. 9 team hasn’t made much – if any – noise.
Finishes of ninth at Kansas and 29th at Talladega have put NASCAR’s Most Popular Driver on the cutline heading to the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL, a racetrack he’s won at twice before (albeit with a different configuration), holding a 13-point advantage.
If this were 2021, and the NASCAR Cup Series was still using the sixth-generation racecar, Elliott would be considered a no-brainer to advance into the next round of the Playoffs, given his performance on road courses, but since the NextGen car was introduced in 2022, the Dawsonville, Georgia-native hasn’t won on a road course.
OUTLOOK – STAY POSITIVE: Despite being on the cutline, Chase Elliott is sitting in a spot that has to make the Hendrick Motorsports driver optimistic. With some stage points and a solid finish on Sunday, Elliott should be protected against Logano and Suarez on points. Plus, in the event that somebody below the cutline wins, the Hendrick Motorsports driver has room to move up the grid, sitting just one point behind Tyler Reddick entering the weekend.
9. Joey Logano
At only 13 points behind NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs bubble driver Chase Elliott, two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion Joey Logano is the most likely to mount a charge into the next round based on his points position.
Much like his teammate Austin Cindric, Logano was removed from a fantastic running position in the closing stages of last Sunday’s event at Talladega, which has left the No. 22 Ford Mustang searching for points to make up and make up quickly.
In terms of raw pace on the road courses this season, Joey Logano has been all over the board. However, with 15 years of NASCAR Cup Series experience, the Middletown, Connecticut-native will likely find a way to be in contention for one of the final spots in the ‘Round of 8’.
OUTLOOK – THE PRESSURE IS ON: The typical craziness of the ROVAL, coupled with the modifications made to the course this season, will make finishing Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400 of the utmost importance. For Logano, putting together a solid top-10 run, and taking advantage of those who can’t keep their cars clean, could be the key to keeping his hopes for a third championship alive.
10. Daniel Suarez
Daniel Suarez and Trackhouse Racing have been typecast as the underdogs in this season’s NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, after an early season win at Atlanta qualified the team into the post-season.
The Monterrey, Mexico-native scraped together a solid opening round of the Playoffs to advance to the ‘Round of 12’, and now, the former NASCAR Xfinity Series champion is by no means out of contention to advance even further.
Finishes of 13th and 26th have left Suarez 20 points below the cutline heading into Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400, but the benefit for the Trackhouse Racing driver, is that the series heads to a road course, where the No. 99 team has proven to have speed all season.
If the Trackhouse Racing team is unable to score the victory Sunday at Charlotte’s ROVAL, the opening two stages will be crucial to Suarez’s ability to make the ‘Round of 8’, with a 20-point gap able to be replaced before the final stage has begun.
OUTLOOK – ON THE HUNT: The speed for Trackhouse has been hit-or-miss this season, but many onlookers ruled Daniel Suarez out of the Playoffs after the opening round, and here the No. 99 team is competing for a spot in the Round of 8. Sure, not many people though they’d make it this far, but the statement it would make to advance to the third round of the playoffs, would be an incredible one. At this point, the No. 99 is playing with house money.
11. Austin Cindric
With five laps to go in Sunday’s YellaWood 500 at Talladega, Austin Cindric was in position to make a second trip to Victory Lane this season and punch his ticket to the next round of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.
Then, Cindric was collected in the biggest wreck in the recorded history of the NASCAR Cup Series, when a bump from Brad Keselowski sent the No. 2 sideways in front of the pack. What was poised to be a 50-point afternoon, after winning the race's second stage and running up front all race long, resulted in only 17 points and a 32nd-place finish.
Heading to the newly-configured Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL, Cindric is pretty much in a must-win situation, sitting 29 markers below the cutline – barring a perfect storm in the race’s first two stages.
OUTLOOK – SEEKING REDEMPTION: Throughout his NASCAR career, Cindric has been well-known for his road course prowess, winning events in the NASCAR Xfinity Series and NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series. A victory in Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400 would be his first Cup Series win on a road course, but it could definitely come just in time for the Mooresville, North Carolina-native.
12. Chase Briscoe
For Chase Briscoe and Stewart-Haas Racing, the path forward to the next round of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs is just about as simple as it could possibly be: win Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400.
Now, that’s pretty easy to say, and very difficult to accomplish, but that’s just the reality of the situation for the No. 14 Ford Mustang Dark Horse team after finishes of 24th and 30th at Kansas and Talladega, the opening two races in the ‘Round of 12’.
That’s left the Mitchell, Indiana-native sitting an insurmountable 32 points below the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs cutline and needing to win to make the ‘Round of 8’, unless a very specific set of circumstances unfold in Sunday’s second elimination race of the Playoffs.
OUTLOOK – NOTHING TO LOSE: Chase Briscoe and Stewart-Haas Racing have nothing to lose at this point, with the team shutting down at season’s end and Briscoe moving on to Joe Gibbs Racing. The No. 14 had solid speed at the series’ last road course race, Watkins Glen, and was the highest finishing of the post-season drivers, in sixth. Don’t expect the No. 14 team to go down without a fight Sunday, either.
