Daytona Sends Shockwaves Through NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Picture
Author's Note: This story was published on Monday, August 26, prior to the ruling of Austin Dillon's appeal hearing with the Final Appeals Officer.
When NASCAR decided to have Daytona International Speedway host the NASCAR Cup Series regular-season finale, scenarios like Saturday's Coke Zero Sugar 400 were exactly what they had in mind.
This season, with the back half of the schedule delayed one week because of NBC Sports coverage of the Summer Olympics, the 2.5-mile superspeedway instead hosted the penultimate regular-season event, but still created the same, if not more, post-season chaos.
Closing in on his final starts with the famed Wood Brothers Racing organization, Harrison Burton took his first career NASCAR Cup Series victory on the high banks of Daytona, locking himself into the Playoffs.
Burton entered Saturday's event at Daytona sitting 34th in NASCAR Cup Series point standings, and became the lowest full-time driver in points to win an event since Casey Mears in 2007. As a result, the entire post-season picture has been thrown into disarray.
It's critical to mention that a second major shift could come on Monday, as the Final Appeals Officer will decide if Austin Dillon's victory at Richmond should lock the No. 3 team into the Playoffs.
📢 "JEFF, YOUR LITTLE BOY HAS DONE IT" 📢@HBurtonRacing is a NASCAR Cup Series winner and is headed to the #NASCARPlayoffs, making things a little bit more complicated for those not yet locked in heading into the regular-season finale#NASCAR pic.twitter.com/TwF0yy0Gd7
— TobyChristie.com (@TobyChristieCom) August 25, 2024
Martin Truex, Jr. remains the safest of those without a victory in 2024, holding a sizeable 58-point advantage heading to Darlington. If Sunday produces a repeat winner, and Austin Dillon loses his appeal, then the Joe Gibbs Racing driver will clinch a spot in the Playoffs.
With a new winner on Sunday (or Dillon winning his appeal), Truex still has a great shot at making the post-season, with a 37-point buffer on new 17th-place driver, Chris Buescher. Problems would only begin to arise if the No. 19 had an abysmal run at Darlington, historically one of his best racetracks.
In the niche scenario that Dillon wins his appeal, and the Cook Out Southern 500 produces a brand-new playoff-eligible winner, then Truex starts to be in trouble, with only a 19-point advantage on Ty Gibbs, who would then sit 17th.
Ty Gibbs, also a Joe Gibbs Racing driver, isn't in as good of a position as his veteran teammate, only sitting 39 points above 17th heading into Darlington Raceway, and 18 points above 16th in the event of a new winner (or a reinstated one).
Provided things go according to plan on Sunday at Darlington, the second-year driver sits in a solid position to make the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs for the first time. Without a new winner, Gibbs is guaranteed a spot with a 20th-place finish or better.
Chris Buescher is the driver on the bubble heading into the regular-season finale at Darlington Raceway, with his No. 17 RFK Racing Ford Mustang sitting 21 points above the cutline.
The Prosper, Texas native will have to play both defense and offense in Sunday's 500-mile contest, keeping Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain in view, while also gapping Ty Gibbs in the event of a new winner.
Should a brand-new winner emerge on Sunday (or one be reinstated on Monday), Buescher suddenly finds himself nearly 20 points in the hold, with a single race to make that gap up on the driver who finished runner-up at Darlington in the Spring.
Despite another strong top-10 result at Daytona on Saturday, Bubba Wallace now finds himself in serious trouble, heading to the regular-season finale at Darlington 21 points below the cutline.
The 23XI Racing driver has made an incredible effort to get himself in play for the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs this season, with two top-five and four top-10 results in the last six races.
For Wallace, there's a realistic pathway to the post-season through stage points and a solid finish at Darlington Raceway, but should there be a new winner on Sunday, the Mobile, Alabama-native will need all that and a miracle to advance.
Ross Chastain is in a nearly identical situation to Bubba Wallace, but the Trackhouse Racing driver has been trending in the complete opposite direction, having been nearly 100 points above the cutline just seven races ago.
The Alva, Florida-native will need to collect as many points as possible in Sunday's Southern 500 at Darlington, while simultaneously hoping that there isn't a new winner, as that will effectively end his post-season hopes (unless he is that new winner).
For the 17 playoff-eligible drivers lower than Ross Chastain in NASCAR Cup Series point standings entering Darlington, the scenario is simple: win the race.
Those drivers include: #8 Kyle Busch, #14 Chase Briscoe, #38 Todd Gilliland, #77 Carson Hocevar, #34 Michael McDowell, #4 Josh Berry, #10 Noah Gragson, #47 Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., #43 Erik Jones, #41 Ryan Preece, #31 Daniel Hemric, #3 Austin Dillon (pending his appeal), #51 Justin Haley, #42 John Hunter Nemechek, #7 Corey LaJoie, and #71 Zane Smith.
Meanwhile, at the top of the NASCAR Cup Series point standings, Tyler Reddick is one solid run in Sunday's Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway from locking up the Regular Season Championship.
Despite a 28th-place finish at Daytona, ending an incredible streak of top-six finishes in the NASCAR Cup Series, Reddick holds a 17-point advantage over Kyle Larson, with Chase Elliott in third, 18 points behind.
Ryan Blaney and William Byron are fourth and fifth in regular-season point standings, respectively, but are too far back to overtake the leaders and get the 15 Playoff Point bonus for winning the regular-season title.
Christopher Bell, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex, Jr. and Ty Gibbs round out the top-10 in regular-season points, with each of these positions paying out Playoff Points post-Darlington.
Chris Buescher and Alex Bowman are in somewhat realistic range of snagging a top-10 position in points, sitting 18 and 28 markers behind, respectively.
JOSEPH SRIGLEY