Elimination Looms: Breaking Down the Cup Series Playoff Picture Entering Bristol
Following Saturday's Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway, the opening round of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs will be complete and four drivers will be eliminated from title contention.
As several drivers expressed before the playoffs, the addition of superspeedway-like Atlanta Motor Speedway and the road course of Watkins Glen International have turned the standings upside down heading into this season's first elimination race.
There is only one driver, two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion Joey Logano, who is guaranteed to advance into the 'Round of 12', courtesy of his victory in the playoff-opener at Atlanta. The remaining 15 drivers, though, all remain in limbo heading back to Bristol Motor Speedway
Here's a rundown of where each playoff-eligible driver stands heading into Saturday's Bass Pro Shops Night Race and what they'll need to do to avoid elimination:
1. Joey Logano (ADVANCED)
Joey Logano has nothing to worry about heading into Saturday's Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol, courtesy of his victory at Atlanta Motor Speedway. The goal for the No. 22 team this weekend is to get as many playoff points as possible.
OUTLOOK: Guaranteed.
2. Christopher Bell (+46)
After some inconsistency during the regular season, Christopher Bell is putting the pieces back together in the Playoffs, with fourth and 14th-place results at Atlanta and Watkins Glen. Bell has a 46-point buffer heading to Bristol.
OUTLOOK: Fantastic. No matter what, Christopher Bell would clinch a spot in the Round of 12 by earning 14 points -- 23rd or better without accumulating stage points.
3. Austin Cindric (+43)
Considered among the favorites for first-round elimination, Austin Cindric is the only playoff-eligible driver with top-10 finishes at Atlanta and Watkins Glen, which puts him a staggering 43 points above the cutline.
OUTLOOK: Rock-solid. No matter what, Austin Cindric advances to the Round of 12 by earning 17 points -- 20th or better without accumulating stage points.
4. Alex Bowman (+41)
Alex Bowman started the Playoffs debunking rumors about his future at Hendrick Motorsports being in jeopardy if he didn't perform in the postseason. The best fix? Performing in the playoffs, which the driver has done flawlessly so far, with a top-five at Atlanta and an 18th-place run at Watkins Glen.
OUTLOOK: Cool as a cucumber. No matter what, Alex Bowman advances to the Round of 12 by earning 19 points -- 18th or better without accumulating stage points.
5. Daniel Suarez (+36)
After missing the post-season in 2023, a victory at Atlanta in the Spring locked him into the championship fight early this year. Coming one spot short of an Atlanta repeat and a 13th-place finish at Watkins Glen has put the Trackhouse Racing driver in a decent spot, sitting 36 points above the cutline.
OUTLOOK: Confident. No matter what, Suarez would lock into the Round of 12 by earning 23 points -- 14th or better without accumulating stage points. It would take a complete disaster for the No. 99 to be eliminated following Saturday's event.
6. Tyler Reddick (+30)
With the regular-season championship and two victories, Tyler Reddick had the playoff points to advance to the Round of 12, barring any catastrophic issues. Even with a disappointing 27th at Watkins Glen, a sixth-place result at Atlanta has kept the No. 45 team in decent standing going to Bristol.
OUTLOOK: Just bring it home. No matter what, Reddick would lock into the Round of 12 by earning 30 points -- seventh or better without accumulating any stage points. Should the No. 45 have an early exit in Saturday's event, things may get a little bit tense.
7. Chase Elliott (+30)
Chase Elliott has been the model of consistency in 2024, with only two finishes outside the top-20. An eighth at Atlanta and 19th at Watkins Glen have left him 30 points above the cutline heading to Bristol, matching regular-season champion Tyler Reddick.
OUTLOOK: Keep doing what you've been doing. No matter what, Elliott would advance to the Round of 12 by earning 30 points -- seventh or better without accumulating stage points. Much like Reddick, any night-ending problems may leave the Dawsonville, Georgia native watching on as his fate is decided by other drivers.
8. Ryan Blaney (+29)
After being taken out on the opening lap at Watkins Glen, Ryan Blaney is thanking his lucky stars for the masterful recovery at Atlanta, where he drove a battered racecar to third place. That has given him a buffer heading to Bristol of 29 points, which isn't amazing, but not a bad situation to be in.
OUTLOOK: Keep it clean. No matter what, Blaney would advance to the Round of 12 by earning 31 points -- sixth or better without accumulating stage points. Even if not of his own doing, finishing the races has been a problem for the defending champion lately. Another DNF could very well end his bid for two in a row.
9. Kyle Larson (+26)
Kyle Larson entered the post-season as the top seed, so to see him ranked ninth heading to Bristol, the first elimination race, is jarring. The Hendrick Motorsports driver earned a single point at Atlanta after crashing in the opening stage, and only managed a 12th-place finish at Watkins Glen, leaving him just 26 points above the cutline.
OUTLOOK: Execution matters. No matter what, Larson would lock himself into the Round of 12 by earning 34 points -- third or better without accumulating stage points. Nobody is questioning Larson's abilities, but execution has often been the downfall for the No. 5 team, whether that be in the cockpit or on pit road.
10. William Byron (+25)
William Byron joins the high-profile list of drivers that could be facing elimination on Saturday at Bristol Motor Speedway, after a gnarly wreck at Watkins Glen resulted in a 34th-place finish. Byron enters Bristol 25 points above the cutline.
OUTLOOK: Find your post-season form. No matter what, Byron advances to the Round of 12 with a 35-point race -- second or better without accumulating stage points. In the past, Byron has been able to find great form in the post-season to get him through the rounds, he'll need to find that again on Saturday to avoid any danger of elimination.
11. Chase Briscoe (+6)
Several drivers lost substantial ground to the cutline following difficult afternoons at Watkins Glen, but Chase Briscoe was not one of them. With a sixth-place finish, the best of the post-season drivers, the Stewart-Haas Racing driver managed to get himself back above the cutline heading to Bristol.
OUTLOOK: Keep up the good work. No matter what, Briscoe advances to the Round of 12 if he can score 54 points -- second-place finish plus 19 stage points, or third-place finishing winning both stages. The Stewart-Haas Racing made up a boatload of points heading to Bristol, a track he's felt good about in this opening round.
12. Ty Gibbs (+6)
Ty Gibbs hasn't had the debut post-season showing that he'd hoped, with finishes of 17th at Atlanta and 22nd at Watkins Glen plaguing him in the opening round. That leaves him just six points above the cutline heading to the elimination race at Bristol.
OUTLOOK: Get your rhythm back. No matter what, Gibbs advances to the Round of 12 if he can score 54 points -- a second-place result plus 19 stage points, or a third-place result winning both stages. Gibbs, and JGR as a whole, had speed at Bristol earlier in the year, so if that can be repeated, the No. 54 could be alright.
13. Denny Hamlin (-6)
This one is a shocker. Denny Hamlin was considered among the favorites to advance to Phoenix, but after a last-lap wreck at Atlanta and multiple incidents at Watkins Glen, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver is six points BELOW the cutline heading to Bristol -- where he won in the Spring.
OUTLOOK: How did we end up here? Denny Hamlin returns to Bristol sitting below the cutline, meaning the only way to guarantee his spot in the next round is to win the Bass Pro Shops Night Race. However, a normal Denny Hamlin-like performance, with some stage points and a top-five result, should do the trick.
14. Brad Keselowski (-12)
Brad Keselowski is another big-name driver sitting below the cutline heading to an elimination race at Bristol after 19th and 26th-place finishes at Atlanta and Watkins Glen have drug him below the cutline by 12 points. RFK Racing just celebrated a victory with Chris Buescher at Watkins Glen and hopes to celebrate another at Bristol, or even just an advancement.
OUTLOOK: Needing a good weekend. Brad Keselowski enters Bristol in a slightly bigger hole, sitting 12 points below the cutline and needing to pass two drivers. The No. 6 team's main focus this weekend, will likely be outpointing Briscoe and Gibbs significantly while trying to outpoint Hamlin, and keep Truex behind him, It's a convoluted situation, no doubt, and it'd get much easier for the No. 6 just parked it in Victory Lane.
15. Martin Truex, Jr. (-14)
Martin Truex, Jr. is in danger of being eliminated from his final post-season, sitting 14 points below the cutline heading to Bristol, where he'll have to fight teammates, Ty Gibbs and Denny Hamlin, among a couple of others. The problem? His 20th at Watkins Glen was the first top-10 for the No. 19 since Pocono in mid-July.
OUTLOOK: Go. Go. Go. While 14 points doesn't seem like a major points gap, Martin Truex. Jr. will need to outpoint several drivers by a significant amount to advance to the Round of 12 -- sitting two points behind Keselowski, eight points behind Hamlin, and 14 points behind Briscoe and Gibbs -- needing to make up three-point positions. Like everyone else, though, a win would solve a lot of problems.
16. Harrison Burton (-20)
Some were hoping for the underdog story of a lifetime, and had that last-lap wreck at Atlanta not happened, Harrison Burton and Wood Brothers Racing probably wouldn't be at the bottom of standings, 20 points below the cutline heading to Bristol. It's a major gap and it's not impossible per se, but the team will need some help to make it happen.
OUTLOOK: Nothing to lose. Harrison Burton has the opportunity to do the most unhinged thing: Win the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol and completely disrupt the post-season by locking himself into the Round of 12. Otherwise, making it on points will be tough, needing to significantly outpoint multiple drivers while also earning a solid finish for himself. It's not impossible, but improbably, so his best route forward appears to be a victory.
JOSEPH SRIGLEY