Hendrick Motorsports Carrying Dominant Streak into Watkins Glen
Do you hear that? That sound is opportunity knocking for Hendrick Motorsports. The 14-time NASCAR Cup Series championship-winning organization heads into the second race of the Round of 16 of the Playoffs at Watkins Glen International with plenty of reason to feel confident.
Since 2018, the only team that has scored victories in NASCAR Cup Series competition at the 2.450-mile, eight-turn road course in New York is Hendrick Motorsports, and over that stretch of five races at the facility, the team has seen three of its four drivers reach victory lane. This weekend serves as a perfect opportunity for HMS to automatically advance one of its drivers to the Round of 12 with a win.
In addition to their five race wins, Hendrick Motorsports drivers have combined to lead 266 of a possible 450 laps (59.11%) over the last five races at Watkins Glen International. While the team is great essentially everywhere on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit, Watkins Glen in particular has been their playground over the last few years.
Kyle Larson (+600 Odds)
After an unideal start to the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, which saw Larson get loose and lose control of his car resulting in a hard crash at Lap 56 of last Sunday's Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway, the No. 1 seed entering the Playoffs will look to get back on the championship chasing path this weekend.
Larson, who announced on Tuesday that he will once again attempt to run the Memorial Day Weekend double (Indianapolis 500/Coca-Cola 600) in 2025, is the odds-on-favorite to win this race as his odds sit at around +600 at most sportsbooks heading into the Go Bowling at The Glen, and for a good reason. Larson scored back-to-back wins in this event in 2021 and 2022 (his first two seasons with Hendrick Motorsports).
After starting the Playoffs with a 35-point advantage over the cutline, Larson now sits uncomfortably just 15-points to the good following a next-to-last-place finish at Atlanta. While he can't afford mistakes in back-to-back weeks, a win would end any possible whispers that the top seed could be eliminated in the opening round of the Playoffs. Expect Larson to go for the win this weekend.
William Byron (+650 Odds)
Byron, 26, has always been good at Watkins Glen International. Even as a rookie, the Hendrick Motorsports driver recorded an eighth-place finish at the track. While he had always floated near the front of the field at The Glen, Byron had never led a lap at the iconic road course, that is until last season.
In 2023, Byron flat-out dominated this race as he led 66 of the 90 laps, and he cruised to the win by 2.632 seconds over Denny Hamlin. While Byron racked up three wins in the opening eight races of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season, he went cold after that, and he limped into the Playoffs on a run of just one top-10 finish (a second-place run at Michigan) in the five races leading into the start of the postseason.
Byron righted the ship slightly last week at Atlanta by starting the Playoffs with a ninth-place finish, which puts him at 33 points above the Playoff cutline heading into the weekend. With that type of points buffer, Byron and his crew chief Rudy Fugle can afford to take some chances. And a win at Watkins Glen on Sunday would undoubtedly spark confidence within the No. 24 team, and could perhaps serve as the catalyst to a second-consecutive Championship 4 appearance.
Chase Elliott (+900 Odds)
I didn't think I'd ever see the day, where Chase Elliott was not the favorite at Watkins Glen International, but here we are as he enters the race with roughly +900 odds. And sure, on paper, it makes sense. The driver of the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 has just one race win this season, and he finished 32nd in this race a season ago.
But there's a reason you dig deeper into things than just the final box score of a race.
From 2018 to 2022, Elliott scored two wins at Watkins Glen, and he didn't record a finish worse than fourth at the road course. While he finished 32nd last season, he was running inside the top-five with 36 laps remaining in the event. Then, the unthinkable happened. Elliott's crew chief Alan Gustafson miscalculated the No. 9 car's fuel mileage, which led to Elliott running out of gas. So, yes, he finished 32nd, but in no way did Elliott have 32nd-place speed at Watkins Glen last season.
Expect Elliott, who comes into this race eighth in the championship standings, 24 points above the cutline, to have a true shot at contending for his second win of the season this weekend.
Alex Bowman (+3500 Odds)
One of these things is not like the others... Alex Bowman at +3500 odds, unlike his teammates, is a longshot to win this weekend's Go Bowling at The Glen, but don't sleep on the driver of the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet Camaro ZL1.
While the 31-year-old has never notched a top-10 finish in seven career starts at Watkins Glen International, he's actually a very underrated road racer. Bowman has one win so far this season, and it came on the Street Course at Chicago.
Sure, that is Bowman's lone NASCAR Cup Series win on a track with left AND right turns, but he has seen success at every road course that has been on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule aside from Watkins Glen and Road America (no longer on the schedule).
In five career starts at the Charlotte ROVAL, Bowman has a best finish of second and has never finished outside of the top-10. In four career starts at Circuit of the Americas, Bowman has a best finish of second and has never finished outside of the top-10. Bowman has also picked up a top-five at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course, and top-10 finishes at Sonoma Raceway and the Daytona International Speedway Road Course. While he may not be the favorite for this weekend's race, I believe his +3500 odds are far too long for how decent he is at road courses.
Add in the persistent rumors, which Bowman has called, "Annoying," that he will not be the driver of the No. 48 car in 2025 (refuted by Rick Hendrick), and you may have the perfect recipe for Bowman to go all-out to not only get his first career top-10 finish at Watkins Glen, but he could join his fellow Hendrick teammates as a race winner at the track.
Who Could Potentially End Hendrick's String of Dominance at Watkins Glen?
Tyler Reddick (+900 Odds)
Reddick, the regular season champion seems like a no-brainer on the list of who, outside of Hendrick Motorsports, could win this weekend at Watkins Glen International. He's tied with Elliott for the fourth-best odds at +900, and he is one of the best road racers in the series.
Of Reddick's seven career NASCAR Cup Series race wins, three have come on road courses, and while he has yet to score a victory at Watkins Glen International, he has finished inside the top-10 in all three of his career starts at the track.
In 2021, he started 13th and finished 10th. In 2022, he started fifth and finished seventh. And last season he started eighth and finished eighth. If he can show up this weekend and better his best-ever qualifying run at the track (fifth) that'll go a long way to making him a true contender for the race win this time around in the No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota Camry XSE.
Christopher Bell (+1100 Odds)
Like Reddick, I don't think many pegged Bell as much of a road course ace heading into his full-time NASCAR Cup Series career in 2020. However, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver has blossomed into a really solid driver on tracks where turning right is a necessity.
Bell picked up his first-career win on the road course layout at Daytona International Speedway in 2021, and he also scored a clutch Playoff win at the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL in 2022. Overall, Bell has a 50% top-10 finish rate throughout his NASCAR Cup Series career on road courses, but when you look at his results at Watkins Glen, you see that he's been far-more consistent at the New York road course.
In three career NASCAR Cup Series starts at The Glen, Bell has a best finish of third, which came last season, and has never finished worse than eighth. His career average finish, albeit in a small three-race sample size, is a series-best 6.0. Bell is certainly a threat to win this weekend.
Michael McDowell (+1200 Odds)
Okay, I know, I know. With his career stats at Watkins Glen being what they are (just one top-10 finish in 14 career starts), it should seem like +1200 odds are too high for McDowell, who drives the No. 34 Front Row Motorsports Ford Mustang Dark Horse.
However, the 39-year-old driver made a career driving subpar equipment for the majority of his life in the NASCAR Cup Series. I mean, he drove for Michael Waltrip Racing as a rookie and as that team was still attempting to find its footing, Prism Motorsports, Phil Parsons Racing, and Leavine Family Racing before that team reached a partnership with Toyota and became slightly competitive. While he has run for Front Row Motorsports since the 2018 season, it's only been in recent years that Front Row Motorsports has taken a massive step forward in performance.
In other words, I'm saying throw away a lot of what you've seen from Michael McDowell at Watkins Glen in the past. The last two seasons, the driver has qualified third at The Glen, and in a season where he has racked up his first five career NASCAR Cup Series poles, if he can back up those qualifying efforts, or even improve upon them, I believe his No. 34 Ford will have the speed he needs to win the race.
McDowell led 14 laps before ultimately finishing sixth in the 2022 event at Watkins Glen, and he led 17 laps last season before an electrical issue ended his race after 74 laps. If the team can avoid mechanical gremlins, I expect McDowell to be in the mix.
Martin Truex Jr. (+1600 Odds)
Could anyone use a good run more than Martin Truex Jr.? It's been 15 races since the driver of the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota registered a top-five finish in the NASCAR Cup Series, and he comes into this race with back-to-back DNFs, and on a six-race streak of finishing 24th or worse. Entering this weekend, Truex sits 19 points below the Playoff cutline in his final full-time campaign. With the points deficit, Truex can go for broke.
Watkins Glen is a great track, historically for the 44-year-old driver, as he has a win (2017), seven top-five finishes, and 11 top-10s in 17 career starts. Noteably, Truex's sterling performance on road courses has dulled a bit since the Next Gen car came into the series in 2022, he has picked up his performance at the squiggly tracks the last couple of seasons.
After a 23rd-place run at The Glen in 2022, Truex rebounded to finish sixth last year. And when you look at his performance on road courses this season, his finishes may not look phenomenal, but it's better than you think.
He finished 10th at Circuit of the Americas, which isn't bad at all, and while he finished 27th at Sonoma Raceway, Truex was in a position to snag the race win that day as he was chasing Kyle Larson for the race win. However, Truex ran out of fuel on the final lap, which resulted in the bad finish. This could be the last chance for Truex and crew chief James Small to save their season, expect them to be aggressive.
Daniel Suarez (+2500 Odds)
Suarez being listed at long odds at +2500 for this race surprises me a bit. The driver of the No. 99 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet is on a hot streak heading into this race as he finished second last weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and he has scored four of his season's seven top-10s over his last six starts.
Suarez's long awaited first career NASCAR Cup Series win came at Sonoma Raceway, a road course, in 2022 and he's been sneaky good at a lot of these tracks over the years. In fact, Suarez has finished half of his six career races at Watkins Glen International inside the top-five.
He has momentum on his side, he's determined to advance into the Round of 12 of the Playoffs, and he's coming into a track, where he's had solid performances before. I like the No. 99 driver and team this weekend at Watkins Glen International.
Obligatory: Shane van Gisbergen (+650 Odds)
No 'Who Could Win at (Insert Road Course Here)' list would ever be complete without Shane van Gisbergen. The 35-year-old Supercars legend moved to the United States this year to contest a full NASCAR Xfinity Series season for Kaulig Racing, where he has won three races -- all of them on road courses.
SVG also has a NASCAR Cup Series win under his belt, and it came in his series debut at the Chicago Street Course a season ago. Without a doubt, Shane van Gisbergen will have the No. 16 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet near the front throughout this race, and the only thing that can stop him from a good run would be a mechanical failure, or running into an issue not of his own doing.
SVG started from the fifth position at the Chicago Street Course earlier this season, looking to defend his win from a season ago. But after leading nine laps, and looking like one of the top threats in the race, he was wiped out by Chase Briscoe, who was unable to get his car stopped heading into one of the sharp turns around that course, and like that, SVG's day was done after 24 laps.
If he can avoid a situation like that on Sunday, he'll be in good shape. And this race will serve as a good indicator of how SVG's rookie season in the NASCAR Cup Series could go next year with Trackhouse Racing when he drives the No. 88 Chevrolet full-time.
TOBY CHRISTIE