It's Not Over Until It's Over: How Overtime Has Impacted the 2024 NCS Season
It’s not over until the checkered flag flies.
That may seem like an obvious statement, but in an era of unlimited NASCAR Overtime attempts and double-file restarts, a race can often be turned on its head because of a simple late-race caution.
In 2024, more than one-third of NASCAR Cup Series events (nine out of 24) have featured at least one attempt at NASCAR Overtime, just two overtime attempts shy of a single-season record of 11, set in 2017.
Now, overtime doesn’t always equate to chaos. Take the March event at Richmond, where no driver gained more than three spots from the final caution of the event (with two laps to go) to the Lap 407 conclusion.
Then, there are races like Nashville, which went into quintuple overtime and set a NASCAR National Series record for most laps run beyond a race’s scheduled distance. In that instance, six drivers in the field had a position change of 20 spots or more from the beginning of overtime to the checkered flag.
If a driver is holding the race lead when that overtime-enabling caution is displayed, it can be a real-life nightmare. Four times this season (Richmond-1, Kansas, Nashville, and Indianapolis) the leader at the time of that all-important caution hasn’t taken the checkered flag first.
On the other hand, if a driver isn’t leading the race, those extra laps and packed-up field serve as the perfect opportunity to crank the dial on the aggression meter and gain some positions, a chance that doesn’t come very often in a field as competitive as the NASCAR Cup Series has been this season.
Across the nine NASCAR Cup Series events that went past scheduled distance, Noah Gragson has been the best at taking advantage of this opportunity, making up a combined 36 positions – an average of four spots per overtime restart.
This season, @NoahGragson has been making the most of any extra laps on the racetrack, netting 36 POSITIONS across nine #NASCAR Overtime finishes in 2024 -- the most among full-time Cup Series drivers.#SrigleyStats | @RacingAmerica pic.twitter.com/YNjQRGTjvr
— Joseph Srigley (@joe_srigley) August 22, 2024
Carson Hocevar has picked up a combined 29 spots, while Chris Buescher (+25), Zane Smith (+17), and Austin Cindric (+17) are all averaging nearly two positions per instance of NASCAR Overtime.
Buescher, along with Joe Gibbs Racing driver Christopher Bell, have been successful in either gaining positions or maintaining their track position across the nine instances of NASCAR Overtime this season.
Of the 34 full-time NASCAR Cup Series competitors this season, 16 have maintained a positive position difference when it comes to the time between the caution that triggers overtime and the checkered flag.
Todd Gilliland, Tyler Reddick, and Joey Logano are the only three drivers that have a perfect zero position difference in NASCAR Overtime events – in each case, the number of spots gained versus lost balances out, rather than a driver maintaining in each race.
While some drivers are making significant gains in overtime situations, there are also some drivers – including multiple heavy hitters, that are hemorrhaging positions when it comes to these race-extending periods… and it’s having a major impact on the Playoffs, too.
Ross Chastain, who enters the penultimate event of the regular season at Daytona International Speedway with just a single point over the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff cutline, is the driver who has been most impacted by NASCAR Overtime this year.
Issues at Texas (-30), Nashville (-31) and Michigan (-25) have @RossChastain wishing #NASCAR always ended races at their scheduled distance, losing a staggering 73 SPOTS across nine overtimes.
— Joseph Srigley (@joe_srigley) August 22, 2024
...and all while trying to make the Playoffs. 😬#SrigleyStats | @RacingAmerica pic.twitter.com/kiMQjUTnVn
Chastain has netted a staggering loss of 73 positions between the nine overtime events this season – highlighted by a 25-spot loss at Michigan, a 30-spot loss at Texas, and a 31-spot loss at Nashville.
To think. If Chastain had those positions (and more importantly, points) back, he wouldn’t be stressing out heading into the final two weeks of the regular season, the first of which encompasses an unpredictable superspeedway race at Daytona.
Denny Hamlin is another driver that has been on the wrong end of extended NASCAR Cup Series events this year. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has lost a total of 43 positions between the nine overtimes in question, the second worst among full-time drivers.
The Chesterfield, Virginia-native is currently enthralled in the battle for the regular-season championship with Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, and Kyle Larson, and those spots lost could ultimately end up being the difference-maker in the No. 11 team coming up short of the regular-season title and the Playoff Points that come with it.
Martin Truex, Jr. (-28), Austin Dillon (-20), Chase Briscoe (-17), and Josh Berry (-17) have also had significant position loses in NASCAR Overtime over the course of this season.
Unlike his fellow rookie contenders Carson Hocevar and Zane Smith, Josh Berry has not been adjusting well to NASCAR Overtime restarts in the Cup Series, failing to make an overall gain in any of the nine events in which they occurred.
As we’ve seen many times in the 10-year history of the current elimination-style post-season format, a single point could make the difference between hoisting a championship trophy at in November or exiting the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs in one of its opening rounds.
Who knows, maybe the NASCAR Cup Series season-finale at Phoenix Raceway won't end after the scheduled 312 laps, and this season's champion of NASCAR's highest division will need to thrive in an overtime situation one last time.
Full List -- 2024 NASCAR Overtime Position Gain/Loss
Rank | Driver | +/- |
|---|---|---|
1 | Noah Gragson | +36 |
2 | Carson Hocevar | +29 |
3 | Chris Buescher | +25 |
4 | Zane Smith | +17 |
4 | Austin Cindric | +17 |
6 | Kyle Larson | +15 |
7 | Christopher Bell | +14 |
8 | Bubba Wallace | +13 |
9 | Ty Gibbs | +12 |
10 | Erik Jones | +11 |
11 | Ryan Preece | +10 |
12 | Daniel Hemric | +9 |
13 | Ryan Blaney | +6 |
14 | Daniel Suarez | +5 |
14 | Michael McDowell | +5 |
16 | Kyle Busch | +2 |
17 | Joey Logano | -- |
17 | Todd Gilliland | -- |
17 | Tyler Reddick | -- |
20 | Corey LaJoie | -2 |
21 | William Byron | -4 |
21 | Chase Elliott | -4 |
23 | Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. | -5 |
24 | John Hunter Nemechek | -6 |
25 | Alex Bowman | -9 |
26 | Harrison Burton | -10 |
27 | Justin Haley | -11 |
28 | Brad Keselowski | -16 |
29 | Josh Berry | -17 |
29 | Chase Briscoe | -17 |
31 | Austin Dillon | -20 |
32 | Martin Truex, Jr. | -28 |
33 | Denny Hamlin | -43 |
34 | Ross Chastain | -73 |
JOSEPH SRIGLEY