Projecting the Playoffs: Playoff Contenders Have Varying Pasts at Vegas
This past weekend at the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL, Kyle Larson picked up yet another win in the NASCAR Cup Series to bring his season total to six. Which, if you're keeping score at home, is more than any other driver in the series, and the driver of the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 heads into Sunday's South Point 400 as the defending race winner, and he's won the last two races contested at the track that is the home of the Neon Garage.
That begs the question; can he do it again?
It's very realistic to believe the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series champion can, as he is one of four of the eight remaining NASCAR Cup Series Playoff contenders who have a very strong resume at the 1.5-mile intermediate oval in Sin City. Not only that, but in a post-season, that has been filled with non-Playoff drivers stealing the show, Larson has been the one constant Playoff contender finding his way back to victory lane.
In all, Larson has three wins in his 16 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and those three wins have all come since his move to Hendrick Motorsports in 2021. In his last seven starts at the track, Larson has three wins, a pair of runner-up finishes, and a 10th-place run in the fall of 2021.
The lone blemish on Larson's record in that seven-race span at Las Vegas is a 35th-place finish after a crash on Lap 94 in the fall of 2022, that crash came at the hands of retaliation from Bubba Wallace, which led to a one-race suspension for Wallace.
Needless to say, Larson is the favorite for the win coming into the weekend.
But while Larson has been nearly flawless at Las Vegas Motor Speedway since 2021, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, and William Byron are no slouches at this track, either.
Each of the Playoff contenders mentioned above has won at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and Logano, who found himself inside the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs thanks to a disqualification of Alex Bowman at the conclusion of last Sunday's race at the Charlotte ROVAL, is tied with Larson for the most wins at LVMS among active drivers with three.
Logano's career average finish at the 1.5-mile track is solid at 9.9, and it's just narrowly off Larson's series-best mark of 9.3.
The Team Penske driver, who is a two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion, knows he's playing with house money as he heads into Las Vegas, and he is primed to potentially secure his sixth-career Championship 4 appearance.
While not as common in LVMS victory lane as Larson or Logano, Hamlin and Byron have a win each at the track, and are both inside of the top-10 of the best average finishes at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Even if they can't challenge for the race win, both drivers would be a solid bet to secure a decent finish to set up their Playoffs Round of 8 run.
While Vegas has been kind to four of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff drivers over the years, for the other four drivers in the Round of 8, they've rolled snakeeyes.
Ryan Blaney, the defending series champion, is the best of the rest in the Playoff field as he consistently finishes inside the top-10 at the track, as he has 10 top-10 finishes in 16 starts at Las Vegas. Blaney's career average finish at LVMS isn't bad as a result at 11.4, but he's led only 80 laps at the track throughout his career.
Blaney did lock up the best finish of his career at the track back in the spring as he finished third in the Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube, so perhaps he's starting to zero in on his first win in Vegas.
Like Blaney, regular-season champion Tyler Reddick hasn't won at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, which is a negative, but he's shown some life at the track. Reddick has five top-10 finishes in his nine previous starts at LVMS, and it all crescendoed with Reddick's career-best Vegas finish of second, which he achieved earlier this year.
23XI Racing has had really good success at Kansas Speedway over the years, and LVMS has a lot of the same characteristics as that 1.5-miler, so, perhaps Reddick can get his Playoffs back on track with a win, and in doing so, secure his first-career Championship 4 appearance.
While a case can be made for Blaney and Reddick being considered as contenders for the win this weekend, the same simply can't be said for Chase Elliott and Christopher Bell, the other two contenders remaining in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.
Elliott has as many DNFS (three) as he has top-five finishes over his 14 starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and he hasn't finished inside the top-10 at the track since a ninth-place effort in the Spring of 2022.
Sure, Elliott has a runner-up finish at LVMS on his record in the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race, but LVMS is a track where Elliott has had a hard time closing out races over the years.
In three consecutive races at LVMS from the Spring of 2020 to the Spring of 2021, Elliott led 22 or more laps in each event but ended the three-race stretch with a 20.33 average finish. Elliott comes into Sunday's race nine points below the Playoff cutline. If he's going to advance to the Championship 4, this race will be a pivotal one for the perennial Most Popular Driver.
Just like Elliott, Bell is very hit or miss at LVMS. While the driver has a career-best finish at the track of second, which he achieved in this race a season ago, he's had five finishes of 24th or worse in his nine career starts at Las Vegas.
That being said, Bell, who has made the Championship 4 in each of the past two seasons, has a knack for finishing well in Playoff races., and the driver says he will be aggressive this weekend as he looks to secure his first win at what he calls one of his favorite tracks.
“I don’t think we can go into this weekend and afford to be cautious at all, you’ll have to be aggressive, you are going to have to be earning stage points and competing for the win," Bell said in a weekly team preview. "I’m looking forward to getting back there and racing at one of my favorite racetracks. My team stepped up last year and we nearly walked away with the win and we have nothing short of a win on our mind heading back to Vegas this weekend.”
While he loves the track, Bell's past performances at Las Vegas Motor Speedway give you a reason to feel doubt about his chances heading into the weekend. Sure, he'll be fast. But in Vegas -- on the track, and off the track -- you need luck on your side to win.
Who will get off to a fast start in the 2024 Round of 8 of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs? Find out by watching the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday, October 20. That race will be televised on NBC beginning at 2:30 PM ET. The Performance Racing Network (PRN) and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio will provide the live radio call of the Round of 8-opening race.
Toby Christie is the Editor-in-Chief of Racing America. He has 15 years of experience as a motorsports journalist and has been with Racing America since 2023.