SRIGLEY: Who Could Burst Playoff Bubble with Darlington Victory?
With Daytona now in the rearview mirror, the only thing separating the NASCAR Cup Series from the beginning of its 10-race post-season is Sunday's 500-mile gauntlet from Darlington Raceway.
For the 18 drivers currently sitting below the cutline, one of NASCAR's most physically-demanding events, the Southern 500, will decide whether or not they compete for the championship, this season.
Darlington will not be anything like last Saturday's event at Daytona International Speedway, though, where anybody had a chance to secure the victory. This week, there is a pecking order of sorts.
Will Sunday provide a repeat winner? Or, is there somebody below the cutline who could make a last-minute splash on the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs? Here are four drivers who could make an impact:
Erik Jones
As a two-time Southern 500 winner (2019, 2022), one of NASCAR's crown jewel events, Erik Jones has a record at Darlington Raceway that simply speaks for itself.
In his 13 previous NASCAR Cup Series starts at the historic venue, the Byron, Michigan-native has finishes inside the top-10 eight times, and boasts an average finish of 12.4 -- ranked fourth amongst full-timers.
Although his previous successes at the 1.366-mile speedway should provide Jones with a certain level of confidence entering Sunday's Cook Out Southern 500, he will need LEGACY MOTOR CLUB and crew chief Dave Elenz to give him a fast Toyota Camry XSE.
With a single top-10 finish, an eighth in the Daytona 500, on record for this season, there's no question that things have been tough for LEGACY MOTOR CLUB. Despite some recent bright spots, the team has been overall down on speed year-over-year, after switching from Chevrolet to Toyota in the off-season.
Jones finished 19th in the Spring (May) event at Darlington Raceway, which served as his return to competition after being sidelined two weeks for a back injury sustained in a wreck at Talladega.
The driver of the famed No. 43 enters Darlington 26th in NASCAR Cup Series point standings, more than 250 points below the cutline. Should the 28-year-old make a return to the Playoffs, he'll need to be celebrating in Victory Lane come Sunday evening.
“Balancing confidence and pressure is easy for me. You go in with the sense of right now we have to win to get in, that makes it a bit easier honestly than if we were in a position where we were close on points like a lot of these guys are going in," said Jones in a LEGACY MOTOR CLUB pre-race advance. "I feel like that position is a lot more pressure than just having to win the race. We have to have a good car, a good race, good strategy, and put ourselves in a position to win.”
Kyle Busch
It's difficult to imagine the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs taking place without one of NASCAR's biggest superstars, Kyle Busch, being involved. However, it's a distinct possibility.
The two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion has had a dismal second year as part of the Richard Childress Racing stable, going winless through the opening 25 events, and only scoring four top-fives -- half the lowest single-season total of his career. (2022).
Busch enters the regular-season finale ranked 19th on the Playoff Grid, sitting 106 points below the cutline. That means, Sunday's Cook Out Southern 500 is a must-win for the Las Vegas, Nevada-native.
Heading into this crucial weekend, there is some good news and bad news for the 2008 Darlington winner.
The good news? Richard Childress Racing has shown speed the last three weeks, with Austin Dillon's win at Richmond, and then Busch's back-to-back top-five results at Michigan and Daytona. The bad news? Busch and the No. 8 team struggled immensely at Darlington in the Spring, finishing 27th.
"We certainly want to [win]," Busch said when asked if he could win at Darlington this weekend. "We ran good there the first time I ran with these RCR guys early last year, but we struggled mightily earlier this year. We'll just have to go with hopefully a really good package that works and get our job done."
Without a victory in Sunday's Cook Out Southern 500, Kyle Busch is absent from the NASCAR Cup Series post-season for the first time since 2012, and his guaranteed his worst points finish since 2005.
Todd Gilliland
Is it a bit of a longshot? Absolutely. But, crazier things have happened.
Todd Gilliland, the son of long-time NASCAR Cup Series driver and current NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series team owner David Gilliland, is still searching for his first victory in NASCAR's premier division. So, could it happen Sunday at Darlington, just in time for the Playoffs?
Gilliland drives the No. 38 Ford Mustang Dark Horse for Front Row Motorsports, the same organization that has put Michael McDowell into the Playoffs with a victory in two of the last three seasons.
Earlier this year, Gilliland and crew chief Ryan Bergenty brought a quick vehicle to the historic racetrack, which had the No. 38 jumping into the top-10 on raw pace, and having one of the best long-run cars in the race.
"We had a solid run at Darlington in May, but we didn't execute as a team to put Todd in contention to win," Bergenty said in a pre-race advance from Front Row Motorsports. "Our progression since then has really taken off and we're all proud of that. We're executing and building fast race cars, we just need to qualify up front and stick to our plan."
The Sherrills Ford, North Carolina native finished 15th, but was removed from a chance at the victory, or even a top-10 finish, after his Front Row Motorsports team kept losing handfuls of positions in the pits.
If the No. 38 team can bring that same level of speed again for Sunday's Cook Out Southern 500, then there's a possibility that Todd Gilliland's maiden victory could come at Darlington and put him into the Playoffs.
Carson Hocevar
Carson Hocevar has quietly done some incredible things with Spire Motorsports this season, recording four top-10 finishes on intermediate and short tracks.
In his last 11 starts, Hocevar (who, by the way, is a rookie) has only finished worse than 17th on one occasion, at the Chicago Street Course, and in the last four races, the No. 77 Chevrolet hasn't placed worse than 12th.
With a finish of 26th, one of only four results outside the top-25 this season, Darlington was one of the bigger struggles for the Spire Motorsports driver this season. But, could his positive momentum and the team's general increase in pace, help him be in contention for a victory?
Last season, Hocevar made his second-ever NASCAR Cup Series start in the Southern 500 as a fill-in driver for LEGACY MOTOR CLUB, and he finished an impressive 17th place.
Sunday will mark his third trip to Darlington Raceway in the seventh-generation racecar, so who knows where that additional experience could carry the 21-year-old... maybe to the Playoffs.
“I'm excited to go to Darlington. It's a place I feel like we’re capable of running well. We struggled in the spring, but I've always been fast there," said Hocevar in a pre-race advance from Spire Motorsports. "We had a good run last year in the Xfinity car and even in the No. 42 Cup car last year with Luke (Lambert). I know the team put in a lot of work to do better this fall, and so did I. We struggled in Richmond in the spring, and we just finished eighth so I know it’s possible to have improved results.”
For Busch, Hocevar, Gilliland, Jones, or anybody else who hasn't yet locked into the post-season, a victory could easily change the entire course of your 2024 NASCAR Cup Series campaign. But, they'll have to endure a tough Sunday evening event at Darlington.
JOSEPH SRIGLEY