Weekend Hot Laps: Cup Playoffs Begin; Odds and Race Picks for Atlanta
By: Pete Pistone
*Editor's note: Each week, veteran sports journalist Pete Pistone will bring his "Weekend Hot Laps" feature. This week's Weekend Hot Laps will serve as a look ahead to the biggest stories on the weekend calendar including the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff opener at Atlanta, the Xfinity Series, and a crowded short track racing slate.
CUP PLAYOFFS READY TO GO
There’s a new look to the Cup Series Playoff schedule and the opening round provides the biggest shakeup. Atlanta opens up the ten-race gauntlet to determine this year’s champ followed by Watkins Glen with Bristol waiting in the wings as the cut-off race.
The overwhelming sentiment from drivers at Playoffs Media Day was one of patience – “Survive and Advance” is the name of the game.
“It is probably the most chaotic, that first round,” said Tyler Reddick, who won the regular season title by a single point over Kyle Larson. “I would almost argue that Talladega, the ROVAL – that second round could be too. Each of those rounds pose their dangers.
“The nice thing is there are 16 of us in this first round, so even if you have a bad day, you have a good buffer and there are a lot of cars that could have average days. I think the mindset that we’ve had all year is going to be a good one for these Playoffs.”
Christopher Bell is looking to make his third consecutive Championship 4 appearance at Phoenix. If the Joe Gibbs Racing driver makes it, he’s hoping it will be a lot less hectic than his first two trips to the main event when he had to survive several “must win” situations to stay alive.
“The first one is going to be very – it’s very nerving for sure, and then the second round too, that has been the scary round with Talladega mixed in there,” Bell said. “But I think the Round of 16 and the Round of 12 are going to be the ones that you feel a little bit handcuffed at. Then, if you’re fortunate to make it to the Round of 8, then it’s off of performance and you can just go out there and lay it on the table.”
Four times the winner of the opening race of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs has gone on to win the championship; Kurt Busch (2004 at New Hampshire), Tony Stewart (2011 at Chicagoland Speedway, Brad Keselowski (2012 at Chicagoland) and Martin Truex Jr. (2017 at Chicagoland).
But with the gauntlet that is the current ten-race slate that comprises the title run, it may be a long shot at best that whoever comes out of Atlanta on Sunday with the checkered flag can ride all the way to hoisting the Bill France Cup in November.
“….I mean I think having the bonus points and playoff points that we’ve earned throughout the regular season is nice, said second seed Kyle Larson. “But it still doesn’t guarantee anything. You still have to not run into any trouble, especially in back-to-back weeks, and hopefully you can just make it through.”
Survive and Advance.
PICKS TO CLICK
You know a race is at a superspeedway when the odds for the favorites to win are nearly all at nearly four digits.
According to DraftKings Sports Book defending champion Ryan Blaney is the pick to win Sunday at Atlanta and his numbers dipped just below the four digit mark at +900. The next two are Joey Logano, who led a lot of laps at Atlanta in February, and Kyle Busch, with a pair of runner-up finishes to end the regular season at +1000. Nor surprisingly Blaney and Busch are near the top of the list after both came up short in the Atlanta photo finish won by Daniel Suarez the second race of the season.
Busch and Chris Buescher are the only two non-Playoff drivers listed among the first 11 drivers favored to win. The last pair of drivers to win in the regular season to make the post-season have the longest odds to win Sunday among Playoff drivers; Chase Briscoe (+3500) and Harrison Burton (+5500).
Looking for a little value pick? Try Ricky Stenhouse Jr. for a Top Five finish at +550 or Carson Hocevar at +1100 for a Top Five.
FEARLESS FORECAST
It’s a part of the job covering NASCAR to predict who will make it to the Championship 4 and battle for the title ten weeks from now. It’s fraught with peril but we do it anyway. So without further delay here is the “Pistone Prediction” of the quartet that will vie for the crown in Phoenix:
Kyle Larson
William Byron
Christopher Bell
Tyler Reddick
Truth be told is 75 percent of the same group I picked in the preseason. The one change is Reddick in for Denny Hamlin. The regular season ended for both in very different fashion with Reddick being the most consistent driver in the series down the stretch and riding that wave to the points championship. While I wouldn’t go so far as to say things couldn’t have gone worse for Hamlin, it wasn’t great for the JGR No. 11 team.
Hamlin’s summer basically started out with a blown engine early at Sonoma and from June on, he finished in the Top Five only twice. Then to add insult to injury, the huge L2 penalty for Toyota breaking the sealed engine rule after Bristol in March was a gut punch to any hope Hamlin and company had to winning the regular season title and coming into the Playoffs with momentum.
Hamlin has said many times before in his pursuit of the still elusive Cup championship he thrives on chaos. Based on the last ten races on the schedule he much be flourishing. There will still be speed in his race cars, Chris Gabehart remains one of the brightest minds on pit road and the pedigree of JGR is impeccable. However, call it a gut feeling but it just feels like the Gods of chance and circumstance are not on Hamlin’s side in 2024.
TO XFINITY AND BEYOND
Saturday’s Xfinity Series Focused Health 400 just might be another Austin Hill Invitational. The Richard Childress Racing driver has won three of the five series races at Atlanta since the track’s reconfiguration including the February visit.
Three races remain in the regular season with Ryan Sieg (-10), Brandon Jones (-132), and Anthony Alfredo (-149) the first three drivers below the cutline. Jones, who announced earlier this week he would leave JR Motorsports and return to JGR next season, and Alfredo need to find a way to win in order to have any shot at the post season.
It will be interesting to see what kind of racing takes place on Saturday. The spring race left a lot to be desired with drivers complaining about an inability to pass.
SHORT TRACK ATTACK
The season has changed and Summer is now in the rear view mirror, but there is a lot of short track racing around the country left including this weekend on Racing America.
Some of the nightlights include the UARA National Super Late Models are at Florida’s Freedom Factory Saturday night for the Billy Bigley Memorial Tune-Up 125, a predecessor to the series’ return to the track come November. It will be the start of a busy stretch for the UARA with a Wednesday, September 11th date at Michigan’s Owosso Speedway next, a race that will include Michigan native and Cup driver Erik Jones.
There’s more asphalt late model racing set Saturday night at Alabama’s Montgomery Motor Speedway, Montana’s Mission Valley Speedway and historic Oxford Plains Speedway in Maine as the track hosts its season championship races.
Finally, Wisconsin’s Slinger Super Speedway brings down the curtain on its Sunday weekly racing with an afternoon car featuring the track’s Pro Late Models and 602 Late Models.
TOBY CHRISTIE