WEEKEND HOT LAPS: Must-Win Time; Homestead the Finale in the Future?
MUST WIN TIME IS HERE
There’s only one race in the books in the Cup Series Round of 8. But with Joey Logano already locked into the Championship 4 after his Las Vegas win and the look of the Playoff point standings, it’s already must-win time for a quartet of drivers.
Denny Hamlin (-27), Tyler Reddick (-30), Ryan Blaney (-47), and Chase Elliott (-53) are the four drivers who find themselves below the cutline. While all are capable of putting together top fives or top 10s in either Homestead or next week at Martinsville, the reality is it might not be enough to overcome the deficit.
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Any good runs will be negated if the drivers ahead of the line – Christopher Bell, William Byron and Kyle Larson hold serve. Trying to make up points if that trio keeps finishing at the front of the field as they’ve done most of the Playoffs will be a futile effort. Unless disaster strikes those three drivers in the way of an accident or mechanical problem, getting to Victory Lane is the only sure-fire bet to advance.
“We are in a must-win situation for the next two weeks,” Chase Elliott said bluntly.
He’s not alone in that assessment.
CLOCK TICKING
The season is rapidly coming to a close and for two veteran drivers time is running out to add another chapter to their storied careers.
Martin Truex Jr. will hang up his helmet as a full-time driver at season’s end closing a 19-year career. Truex has won 34 Cup races, 32 since 2015. He had a career-high eight wins in 2017, when he won the series championship. However, he is winless in 2024.
“Sure, I’d like to get one more before leaving full-time,” Truex Jr. said last week after Las Vegas. “We’ve had speed it’s been just a matter if putting an entire race together, executing, and not having problems. I still believe we can do it.”
Busch was a three-time winner in 2023, his first with Richard Childress Racing. But it’s been a different story this year with the two-time Cup Series champion not only shut out of Victory Lane but more often than not fighting in a non-competitive car.
Busch has won at least one race in his 19-year Cup career to date, a streak that looks like it will cease in three weeks unless something turns around. He hasn’t won since Gateway in June of 2023 and is in the midst of the longest winless drought of his Cup career.
FLORIDA FINALE
Homestead was the site of NASCAR’s Championship Weekend for several years until 2020 when it moved to Phoenix Raceway. The Arizona track will again host the finale again in 2025 but there is growing sentiment for NASCAR to return to South Florida to end the year in 2026.
There are a finite number of markets and areas of the country in early-mid November where warm temperatures and pleasant weather are the norm. Certainly, Phoenix has checked that box for years and for the most part, Championship Weekend has been a good weather experience since moving to the Valley of the Sun. But the Miami area isn’t a bad choice in that regard either and would give fans a chance for some sun and racing fun before the final checkered flag of the season flies.
There’s also a competitive angle to coming back to end the season at Homestead. The track is nearly universally praised by drivers and teams for its penchant to create good racing.
“The driver really can do some things to manipulate the car to work in a certain way by his driving style if the car’s not handling exactly perfectly,” said Denny Hamlin. “Any time drivers can have a bigger factor in your performance, I think that they all like it for that reason.”
Although it’s a 1.5-mile track one of several on the schedule, Homestead’s layout is unique adding to the specialness of a solo visit each year. Unlike Phoenix where teams have notes from the track’s annual spring race, Homestead provides a much more blank slate of preparation.
We are a ways off until the 2026 schedule is released but seeing Homestead back in the season finale spot would bring a lot of smiles to the NASCAR world.
PICKS TO CLICK
The numbers around all three races at Homestead-Miami Speedway this weekend have been fascinating to watch since the first odds were posted on Monday. There is a significant slant toward Playoff drivers being prohibitive favorites in the Cup Series, despite having three non-Playoff pilots take three of the first seven post-season races.
Kyle Larson is the clear-cut favorite for Sunday’s Straight Talk Wireless 400 and it’s not even close with the Hendrick Motorsports driver coming in at +350 to win. The surprise isn’t Christopher Bell behind Larson in the odds it’s how far back the Joe Gibbs Racing driver’s number is at +600, where he is tied with Tyler Reddick at the same odds. Only one other driver clocks in at three digits with William Byron next at +700.
It gets interesting from there. Ryan Blaney started the week at +1300 but dropped to +1000 on the doorstep of the weekend. The Team Penske driver has the same number as Denny Hamlin followed by Chase Elliott (+1400) and Martin Truex Jr. (+1600). Joey Logano is the Playoff driver longshot at +1700 to win the race.
The Xfinity Series dynamic is intriguing as Cole Custer leads the favorite list at +320 to win followed by Aric Almirola, still in it for Joe Gibbs Racing in the owners championship at +500. William Sawalich, who makes his Xfinity Series debut for JGR before joining the team full-time next season, is listed at +2800.
Finally, the Craftsman Truck Series 1-2 favorites are no surprise with Corey Heim (+160) and Christian Eckes (+300) leading the way.
SHORT TRACK ATTACK
One of Super Late Model racing’s crown jewels returns this weekend with the World Crown 300 at Cordele (GA) Speedway (Available on RacingAmerica.tv for Racing America subscribers). More than 30 drivers are entered in the event part of the UARA National Super Late Model Series including standouts Bubba Pollard, Stephen Nasse, and Johnny Sauter. Dick Trickle, Mike Eddy, Darrell Waltrip, Rich Bickle, the late Bobby Gill, Freddie Query, Chase Elliott, Preston Peltier, and Casey Roderick. The race kicks off a bust two-week stretch with the prestigious All-American 400 at Nashville Fairgrounds Speedway next weekend (Available on PPV on Racing America).
Martinsville Speedway has a unique doubleheader on tap. The season championship for the Whelen Modified Tour is slated for Saturday with Justin Bonsignore and Ron silk still vying for the title. The weekend will also see the first-ever race at the Virginia half-mile for the Mazda MX-5 Cup Series. It is the first time the series has ever competed on an oval track with $60,000 in prize money up for grabs.
Pete Pistone is a veteran motorsports and general sports reporter/journalist with nearly 30 years experience. During his career he has worked for media outlets such as WGN Radio, The Chicago Sun-Times, Chicagoland Television (CLTV), CBS Sports, Motor Racing Network and SiriusXM. Pistone has been with SiriusXM since 2008 and co-hosts “The Morning Drive” on SiriusXM NASCAR Radio (Ch. 90) with Mike Bagley, which airs Monday through Friday at 7 am ET. He is also the host of “Fantasy Racing Preview,” a weekend show focusing on NASCAR gambling and fantasy racing, which is part of the channel’s NASCAR Cup Series pre-race programming. Additionally, Pistone is a member of the SiriusXM College Sports team as an on-air personality and contributor on Big Ten Radio (Ch. 372). He is one of the hosts of “Big Ten Today” and can also be heard on “Big Ten Whip Around,” a weekly hour-long program spotlighting a variety of sports around the conference. Pistone is also the host of several specials as well as providing a range of digital content for both the NASCAR and Big Ten channels. A Chicago native, Pistone resides in the northern suburbs of the city with his wife and daughter.