Can Iga Swiatek Catch Aryna Sabalenka in WTA Rankings After Miami Open?

Aryna Sabalenka has opened up a dominant lead in the WTA Rankings after the Miami Open.

Mar 29, 2025; Miami, FL, USA; Aryna Sabalenka celebrates with the Butch Buchholz trophy after her match against Jessica Pegula (USA)(not pictured) in the women's singles championship of the Miami Open at Hard Rock Stadium. / Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

On Saturday night, Aryna Sabalenka defeated Jessica Pegula in straight sets to win the Miami Open: 7-5, 6-2. It was Sabalenka's second title of the year; better yet, it was a WTA Masters 1000 event.

In tomorrow's updated WTA rankings, Sabalenka will surpass 10,000 points. The second closest will be Iga Swiatek, with a distant 7,430 points.

Swiatek admitted to feeling the pressure of the WTA Rankings during the Middle East Swing, and those frustrations boiled over during Indian Wells. Swiatek has played well this season but has been riding a title drought since the French Open.

Aryna Sabalenka defeats three top-🔟 opponents en route to a title for the first time in her career! 🤩#MiamiOpen pic.twitter.com/VI1iIS5HlB

— Tennis Channel (@TennisChannel) March 29, 2025

While everyone expects Swiatek to excel in clay court season, she has almost no room for error if she wants to catch Sabalenka in the WTA Rankings.

Sabalenka will only have 1,828 points to defend in clay court season, while Swiatek must defend 4,195 points during the same time because of her dominance last year.

Is it impossible for Swiatek to catch Sabalenka? Not at all. There is a lot of tennis left to be played this season. Every Masters event is worth 1,000 points, and Grand Slams (Majors) award 2,000 points.

"You're not my team, you're my family" 🥹

Aryna Sabalenka shows love to her team, opponent, and the fans after claiming the #MiamiOpen title 🫶 pic.twitter.com/ltGdcSDlGO

— Tennis Channel (@TennisChannel) March 29, 2025

However, Swiatek has to start winning titles again, and Sabalenka will need to start underperforming. Currently, there is not much evidence to support both of those variables happening.

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