Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Fade Jose Berrios on Tuesday)

Reed Wallach | Jul 2, 2024

Jun 27, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios (17) pitches to the New York Yankees during the second inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports / John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

There are plenty of appetizing matchups for both hitters and pitchers on Tuesday, and I'm using the player prop market at FanDuel Sportsbook to cash in.

Jose Berrios has been pitching above expectation all season, but it's time for a setback to come, and I'm fading his strikeout prop on Tuesday against a surging Astros team.

Find out why I'm going against Berrios on Tuesday as well as my two other favorite prop bets on the card.

Best MLB Prop Bets for Tuesday, July 2nd

• Kyle Gibson Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-128)
• Jose Berrios Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+102)
• Dylan Cease Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-102)

Kyle Gibson Over 4.5 Strikeouts

Gibson has some underlying regression coming for him, but he has been more than capable at striking batters out of late. 

He has punched out five or more batters in eight of 15 starts this season and in four of the last five starts. 

The righty will face a Pirates lineup that swings freely, fourth in strikeouts this season, and are going to chase Gibson’s offspeed pitches.

This number is a tad too low not to bite at Gibson’s over. 

Jose Berrios Under 4.5 Strikeouts

Berrios is a prime regression candidate, and it may come as soon as Tuesday against a streaking Astros team. 

Houston is full of capable hitters, but also disciplined ones. The team strikes out fewer than any team in baseball this season, and that can keep down Berrios’ strikeout marks. 

The right hander has a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 4.96, far higher than his 3.38 mark, indicating he can see his performance decline with some negative variance. Against an Astros team that doesn’t strikeout much to begin with, I expect Berrios fails to get to five strikeouts, something he hasn’t done in four of his last five starts. 

Dylan Cease Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Cease is one of the premier strikeout artists in the big leagues, sitting down 32% of batters he has faced this season. 

Against a struggling Rangers lineup that is bottom 10 in the big leagues in batting average against right handed pitchers, this matchup should set up nicely for Cease to get to his quote of seven strikeouts. 

Cease has cleared this in 10 of 17 games this season, which translates to 58%. For what it’s worth the implied probability of this prop hitting is 50.5%. Given we need a near-average outing from Cease, I’ll bank on it at these odds. 

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