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Sensationally firing Claudio Ranieri doesn't cure what's ailing Leicester City
Jamie Vardy’s late goal against Sevilla on Wednesday had seemed to have brought hope to Leicester City in the Champions League, but evidently not enough. A 2-1 deficit is not insurmountable in the second leg but that away goal was pretty much all that has gone right this year, and on Thursday evening came the news that Claudio Ranieri had been sacked, a convenient scapegoat for the club’s ills.
There was always going to be some sort of adjustment after winning the league title in such unexpected fashion last season, but few expected it to be as difficult as this. On Monday Leicester hosts Liverpool. By then it could be bottom of the Premier League table.
For most of the first half of the season, things didn’t seem to be going too badly. Leicester bobbed along in lower mid-table and few of the new signings seemed to have settled, but its Champions League form was good, securing progress as a group winner before a 5-0 defeat to Porto in the final ground of games. But since the turn of the year, its form has taken a significant turn for the worse. It has lost five league games in a row and hasn’t scored in six, sliding to fourth from the bottom. With Hull and Swansea both resurgent, relegation has become a distinct possibility.
Leicester has a Champions League lifeline; Juventus capitalizes at Porto
Inevitably, Ranieri has found himself under pressure. This is just how things are in modern football. No matter that last season he oversaw the unlikeliest league champions in English history. As soon as results go bad there is only one response, and that is to fire the manager. Premier League titles don't buy the time they used to: Ranieri follows Jose Mourinho in being sacked before the end of the following season. The one before that, Manuel Pellegrini, announced midway through the next but one season that he would leave at its conclusion, and the one before that, Sir Alex Ferguson, retired immediately. The one before that, Roberto Mancini, was ousted after losing the following season's Cup final.
There are many reasons for Leicester’s decline, most of which come down to little more than regression to the mean. In 101 league games since the club returned to the top flight, it has taken 143 points. That is more than would realistically have been expected on the opening day of 2014-15. An average of 1.4 points per game is more than enough to keep a club comfortably safe from relegation, which would have been a realistic ambition. But what that average doesn’t explain is the distribution of points, 103 of them coming in just 47 matches: the nine games in April and May 2015 under Nigel Pearson that saw Leicester improbably survive relegation and the next 38, under Ranieri, in which the title was won.
Was Ranieri the eccentric mastermind who plotted that triumph? Is he the hapless clown unable to stop this season’s decline? If he is the latter than he must logically have been the former, unless we’re to believe that the problem is the erosion of Pearson’s influence. And if he was the former, that would suggest he was due time to arrest the slide. Or perhaps the manager is almost irrelevant, the results just occur, and he is the useful hook on which to hang post-hoc rationalizations of what has happened? Which is also hardly an argument to sack him. (The thought experiment, anyway, is interesting: if you had 108 points to distribute over two seasons, who would opt for 54 and 54 and two seasons of comfortable mid-table finishes rather than 81 and 27, a league title and probable relegation?)
Leicester City's Top Moments of 2015-16
The first points; Aug. 8, 2015
In what turned out to be a sign of things to come, Jamie Vardy scored the club's first goal 11 minutes into the season and Riyad Mahrez scored two of his own to give Leicester a 3-0 lead 25 minutes into a 4-2 win over Sunderland at King Power Stadium.
Immediate response vs. Spurs; Aug. 22, 2015
Riyad Mahrez answered Dele Alli's 81st-minute goal a minute later, and even though Leicester suffered its first non-win of the campaign in the 1-1 home draw against Tottenham, it showed a promising resiliency against a club it would be fending off down the stretch.
Comeback vs. Villa; Sept. 13, 2015
Facing a 2-0 deficit at home to lowly Aston Villa, Leicester mounted a furious comeback, with Ritchie De Laet, Riyad Mahrez and Nathan Dyer scoring in the 72nd, 82nd and 89th minutes, respectively, to steal three points in dramatic fashion.
Another 2-0 comeback; Sept. 19, 2015
Again down 2-0, Leicester rescued another point from a losing position at Stoke City. The Potters raced out to their lead within 20 minutes, but Riyad Mahrez's penalty and Jamie Vardy's 69th-minute equalizer salvaged the point.
Vardy rescues a point; Oct. 17, 2015
Leicester found itself down 2-0 to Southampton (sensing a theme here?) but roared back late. Jamie Vardy scored twice, once in the 66th minute and the dramatic equalizer a minute into stoppage time, earning the Foxes another point from a losing position.
Clean-sheet pizza; Oct. 24, 2015
It took 10 games and a promise of a pizza party from manager Claudio Ranieri for Leicester to keep a clean sheet, but the Foxes did just that in a 1-0 win over Crystal Palace. The pizza promise became an instant part of Leicester lore, and the club went on to keep 14 more clean sheets–including six in seven games down the stretch.
Vardy's scoring record; Nov. 28, 2015
Jamie Vardy set a Premier League record scoring in his 11th straight game in a 1-1 draw vs. Manchester United. Ruud van Nistelrooy previously held the mark.
Sweet revenge for Ranieri; Dec. 14, 2015
With manager Claudio Ranieri facing Chelsea–the team that ushered him out in 2004–and squaring off against Jose Mourinho–the man who replaced him–Leicester wound up with the bragging rights and three points. Jamie Vardy scored off a perfect Riyad Mahrez pass, Mahrez added a gorgeous goal of his own, Leicester won 2-1 and Mourinho was promptly fired.
Schmeichel saves a point; Dec. 29, 2015
On the heels of a Boxing Day loss to Liverpool, Leicester proved its title chops by holding contender Manchester City to a 0-0 draw. Kasper Schmeichel made a pair of key first-half saves, and Leicester bounced back three days after the setback to secure a meaningful point.
Huth's header beats Spurs; Jan. 13, 2016
Defender Robert Huth's perfect 83rd-minute header from Christian Fuchs's corner–his first goal since last April–gave Leicester a 1-0 win over Tottenham at White Hart Lane, snapping a three-game winless run. Given how the title race would come down to the two clubs, the point swing has proven to be massive.
Vardy's wonder-volley vs. Liverpool; Feb. 2, 2016
Jamie Vardy scored twice in a February win over Liverpool, but it was his first goal that had the world talking. After running down a long ball from Riyad Mahrez, Vardy unleashed a 25-yard volley off the bounce to stun the Reds and help Leicester exact revenge for one of its three losses on the season.
Huth scores two at Man City; Feb. 6, 2016
A match at Manchester City was supposed to be the start of Leicester's downfall, but the Foxes were having none of that. Robert Huth scored in the third minute to shock the Etihad faithful, and he added another later to proclaim Leicester's intentions in a 3-1 win.
Ulloa beats Norwich late; Feb. 27, 2016
Both times Leicester lost to Arsenal it followed up with wins over Norwich City to right the ship. The second time was far more thrilling, with Leonardo Ulloa scoring an 89th-minute winner at King Power Stadium to put the title ship back on course.
Officially safe! March 1, 2016
Not that it was ever remotely in doubt, but Leicester ensured safety from relegation with a 2-2 home draw vs. West Brom. Given Claudio Ranieri's cautious approach to overstating goals, the preseason expectations and last season's heroic charge out of the drop zone, the achievement was still notable and allowed Leicester to officially look ahead to bigger things.
Kante returns, Mahrez scores vs. Watford; March 5, 2016
Vital midfielder N'Golo Kante returned from an injury and Riyad Mahrez scored a highlight-reel goal–again–as Leicester won at Watford 1-0 to keep pressure on Tottenham and Arsenal in the title chase. The club's record away from home (11-2-4) is a big driver of its overall success.
Okazaki's bicycle kick beats Newcastle; March 14, 2016
Shinji Okazaki's bicycle kick goal gave Leicester a nervy 1-0 win over Newcastle on a day which Leicester entered leading Tottenham by just two points in the Premier League table.
Captain Morgan helps Leicester extend lead; April 3, 2016
With Tottenham dropping points to Liverpool the previous day, Leicester took full advantage. Defender and captain Wes Morgan scored his only goal of the season in a 1-0 win over Southampton that stretched the club's lead atop the table to seven points.
Leicester clinches Champions League place; April 10, 2016
It went overlooked given the club's title aspirations, but Leicester clinched an almost equally improbable place in next season's Champions League with a 2-0 win at Sunderland, cementing a top-four place. Jamie Vardy's two goals did the honors.
Ulloa's late equalizing PK vs. West Ham; April 17, 2016
Leonardo Ulloa calmly converted a penalty kick deep into second-half stoppage time to cap a game full of controversy and secure a vital point in a 2-2 draw with West Ham.
Ulloa scores two in Vardy's absence; April 24, 2016
With leading scorer Jamie Vardy suspended because of a referee altercation in the previous match vs. West Ham, Leonardo Ulloa stepped into the starting lineup and scored twice in a 4-0 rout of Swansea City. A Tottenham draw the following day put Leicester in position to clinch the title with three points from its final three games.
The Vardy Party; May 2, 2016
Leicester players gathered at Jamie Vardy's house to watch Chelsea take on Tottenham in the decisive match in the title race. It was the Vardy Party to top all Vardy Parties, as Leicester was crowned champion following the 2-2 draw at Stamford Bridge.
Ranieri's Guard of Honor; May 14, 2016
Claudio Ranieri returns to Stamford Bridge, where he was jettisoned in 2004 for Jose Mourinho, and steps through Chelsea's guard of honor, which the outgoing champions provided for Leicester City.
There might be a short-term uplift from sacking Ranieri, but to what end? Is there a better manager waiting around? One who, say, won the league with the same group of players last season?
There is talk of unrest in the squad, but then there always is when results go badly. Ranieri was criticized for remaining too loyal to the same core of players, but last season his capacity to keep picking the same side was perceived as one of his strengths. It’s not difficult to pinpoint what’s gone wrong: N’Golo Kante has been sold–and looks like winning the league again this season with Chelsea–while half a dozen players who simultaneously produced the best seasons of their careers, feeding off each others’ confidence, have reverted to being what they were for most of their careers: lower-league strugglers, and they’re now being dragged down by each other’s doubts.
Vardy has stopped scoring goals –only five this season as opposed to 24 last, and three of them came in one game against Manchester City. Riyad Mahrez has three goals this season as opposed to 17 last season. Defenses have figured them out (Mahrez looked dangerous again playing for Algeria in the Cup of Nations) and they haven’t been good enough to adapt.
The two center backs, Wes Morgan and especially Robert Huth, have had rotten seasons, looking slow and cumbersome. Danny Drinkwater is not the same player without Kante alongside him. Only goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel and, perhaps, Christian Fuchs, have played at anything like the level of last season. Was that really Ranieri’s fault?
Perhaps replacing him would stop the rot, perhaps it would shock the team into a reaction that would drag them away from the relegation zone. But it could only be a short-term measure, and the danger is that Leicester then gets stuck in the same spiral of sacking managers once a season that has blighted Sunderland. Put bluntly, last season was a freak and this is probably the level of this group of players. Getting rid of Ranieri doesn’t change that.
An accomplished author of multiple books, Jonathan Wilson is one of the world’s preeminent minds on soccer tactics and history.