Kalshi Prediction Market Has Jon Rahm Heavily Favored to Rejoin PGA Tour

The grass isn’t always greener on the other side, Kalshi’s golf market already treats Jon Rahm as a near-lock to return to the PGA Tour. With all of the uncertainty surrounding LIV Golf, Kalshi gives Rahm a 98% chance of returning to the Tour next season.

Kalshi settles on whether Rahm applies, rejoins, or announces a return before Jan. 21, 2027. A $10 trade on Rahm rejoining the PGA Tour profits just $.18.

Will Jon Rahm rejoin the PGA Tour before Jan. 21, 2027 - Kalshi

Yes 98%
No 79%

Uncertainty leads to the return

Several rumors and reports claim that LIV is offering players settlements worth a fraction of their original contracts. Rahm is still reportedly owed nearly $100 million of the $300 million deal he signed in 2023. Should the league file for bankruptcy, he may never see the remainder of his contract.

While one report in mid-August sparked rumors that Rahm was moments away from announcing his return to the PGA Tour, later reports debunked it. The report suggested that Rahm would pay $25 million charitable fine and issue an apology.

Most recently at the PGA Tour Championship, PGA commissioner and CEO Brian Rolapp said that there is no current plan to reignite the “Returning Member Program” that Brooks Koepka used when he returned to the tour.

"No, currently there's no current plans for [the] Returning Member Program like you saw earlier this year."

Rolapp continued, saying that there are three principles that he’d consider before allowing LIV golfer the chance to return.

“The PGA Tour has been built on meritocracy and everything is earned; the PGA Tour is a membership organization and has rules; and rules only matter if they're enforced. Those are guiding principles for us," Rolapp said. "Rules matter. Again, I've been very public that I want to do what's best for the PGA Tour, and that's still my guiding principle. Whatever happens, those will be the guiding principles."

He later continued that the PGA would not engage in any contracts with LIV golfers until their contracts are sorted.

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