Shedeur Sanders First Start? Trending Toward Later This Season on Kalshi

The Shedeur Sanders QB1 takeover may have to wait a bit longer as Kalshi’s NFL market suggests Deshaun Watson is safe. For now. Kalshi gives Sanders a 70% chance to start in Weeks 5-6.

Kalshi offers a market on which weeks Sanders will make his first start of the season. He came into the season with a 59% chance to start in Weeks 3-4. His price spiked to 65% for a Week 3-4 start after the Cleveland Browns lost in Week 1. After Watson led them to a comeback win in Week 2, Sanders’ starting market shifted to Weeks 5-6.

When will Shedeur Sanders make his first start? - Kalshi

Week 5-6 70%
Does not start this season 18%
Week 3-4 39%
Week 11-14 82%
Week 7-10 28%
Week 15-18 83%

Watson proving doubters wrong

Say what you will about Deshaun Watson, but he’s done as good a job as anyone expected through two weeks. He’s totaled 443 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, one interception, and 60 rushing yards. He’s also completing 76.9% of his pass attempts.

He threw his only interception on Cleveland’s opening drive in Week 1, and he has since tightened up. In the opening week, he went 16/22 for 205 yards, a touchdown and the interception. In Week 2 he improved to 24/30 for 238 yards and two touchdowns.

Watson is spreading the ball around nicely to the Browns' young receiving core. Rookie receiver Denzel Boston leads with 154 yards and two touchdowns, catching seven of 11 targets. Second-year tight end Harold Fannin caught seven of nine targets for 75 yards. Fellow rookie KC Conception leads the team in receptions with 10 on 11 targets for 71 yards.

Watson is fully healthy and playing like his former self to start the season. In his last fully healthy season in 2020, he put up career-high numbers with 4,823 passing yards and 33 passing touchdowns with just seven interceptions. While he’s beyond his prime at 31 years old and has had several injuries since then, he’s still on pace for a productive season with over 3,600 passing yards and 25+ touchdowns.

Watson’s contract also plays a role in him remaining the starter, as he’s in the final season of his 5-year, $230 million fully guaranteed deal and will make over $40 million in 2026.

Is Sanders ready to take over?

While some Browns fans might be calling for Sanders to take over as QB1, would he really be the best option? Granted, last season Cleveland dumped him into a messy QB room and he completed just 56.6% of passes for 1,400 yards, seven touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.

However, in the preseason, when he was competing for the QB1 job, he failed to impress. While he completed a decent 15/22 passes for 152 yards, he only managed one passing touchdown and two interceptions.

Watson and the Browns play the Carolina Panthers in Week 3. In Weeks 4-5, when Sanders has a 70% chance to start, the Browns take on the Pittsburgh Steelers at home and the New York Jets on the road.

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