Reed 'Em and Weep: College Football Betting Notes, Player Prop Predictions and Betting Analysis for Week 5

Reed Wallach | 13 Hours Ago

Michigan running back Kalel Mullings (20) runs against USC linebacker Mason Cobb (13) during the second half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Sept. 21, 2024. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

After a thrilling week of college football in Week 4, we are treated to yet another unbelievable slate of games.

With games like Georgia-Alabama and Louisville- Notre Dame, it's sometimes daunting to get prepared for a full slate. Well, I've got you covered with betting news, thoughts and predictions for each Top 25 matchup on the docket.

Let's waste no time, here's everything you need to know.

Virginia Tech vs. Miami (Florida) Betting Notes

Virginia Tech’s underwhelming start to the season continued last week with a home loss to Rutgers. While the Hokies tied it late, the team was shut down for much of the day by a stout Scarlet Knights defense as Kyron Drones continued to underwhelm as a passer.
Drones is completing 46% of his passes under pressure and has made one big time throw to three turnover worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus. This is problematic against a Miami defense that is currently 14th in pass rush grade.
With a big point spread in favor of the Hurricanes, this could be another big outing for Heisman Trophy favorite Cam Ward, who is facing a Va. Tech team that just allowed 260 passing yards to a poor Rutgers passing offense.
This game could end up getting points-y, as Virginia Tech has been able to rally late in games when down two scores to both Rutgers last week and Vanderbilt in Week 1 as Drones has done his best when the game is seemingly out of reach, if you are looking for a potential live betting angle.

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Betting Notes

Both of these teams are off two of arguably the most disappointing outings of the Week 4 slate, making for an intriguing and potentially desperation matchup in Manhattan, Kansas Saturday.
K-State lost at BYU as the team fell behind due to some sloppy turnovers and unlucky bounces and the lack of passing game in a negative game script proved to be a fatal flaw for the Wildcats.
Quarterback Avery Johnson had his first poor outing of his career, completing only 15-of-28 passes for 130 yards with two interceptions. The Wildcats lack of downfield passing offense was on display in the loss as the team couldn’t come from behind. Overall, the Johnson-led K-State offense is 84th in EPA/Pass.
Will the team need to throw to get ahead of Oklahoma State?
Johnson has proven to be a devastating rusher, and the Pokes are outside the top 90 in EPA/Rush
After getting benched for part of the loss to Utah, Alan Bowman will look to jumpstart this Cowboys offense that isn’t getting contributions from Ollie Gordon at the moment (less than four yards per carry).
K-State’s secondary remains a concern, can Bowman re-engage and bounce back after failing to outperform freshman Isaac Wilson last week? Kansas State’s defense is 100th in EPA/Pass.

Kentucky vs. Ole Miss Betting Notes

This will be the first real test for Ole Miss this season, but I fail to see Kentucky keeping up.
The Wildcats rank 122th in pass blocking grade, which is going to be an issue against the elite Ole Miss defensive line that is currently first in PFF’s pass rush metric.
While UK may hold up defensively for a bit, the Rebels offense with the nation’s passing leader through four weeks Jaxson Dart should find answers to cover the lofty point spread.
The Kentucky secondary ranks 98th in explosive pass defense, so expect a ton of Dart to Tre Harris, as has become the norm, in this one.

BYU vs. Baylor Betting Notes

How does Baylor get off the mat for this one after letting Colorado complete a Hail Mary and comeback to win?
The same can be said in the opposite for BYU, who heads to Baylor on the heels of one of its biggest wins in recent memory. While a win, it was a fortunate one at that.
BYU only averaged about five yards per play, which would rank in the 28th percentile amongst games last season. It was a modest effort and the team benefited from three turnovers, short field touchdowns and an insane 90-yard punt return for a touchdown.
It’s tough to gauge the state of Baylor, who could be looking for a new head coach starting as soon as its bye week, but BYU likely can’t be trusted given the likelihood of the variance monster popping out sooner or later.
Currently, BYU is averaging more than two takeaways per game.

Minnesota vs. Michigan Betting Notes

Michigan got back to its roots as a run-first minded outfit with Alex Orji under center, pulling away from USC late to secure a must-win game for the defending National Champions.
While Orji will never be a threat to pass, he completed seven of 12 passes for 32 yards, but he ran the ball 13 times for 43 yards and opened up running lanes for Kalel Mullings to have two 50-plus yard runs and secure the win.
Speaking of Mullings, I theorized that this was his running back room last week, and now it's obvious.
Mullings had 17 carries for 159 yards and two touchdowns while Edwards had 14 rushes for 74 yards.
This matchup against Minnesota should suit Mullings nicely, and I like his over rushing yards at 80.5. This is not your big brother’s Golden Gophers defense under P.J. Fleck as North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton and Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson averaged to rush for an average of 167.5 yards this season.

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Betting Notes

It’s unclear who will start for Texas A&M at quarterback. It’ll be either Conner Weigman, the Week 1 starter, or backup Marcel Reed, who has navigated the Aggies to a pair of wins in the last two weeks.
Either way, this game is shaping up to be a bit of a rock fight as I give the edge to both defenses.
Arkansas may have explosive playmakers that hung 600 yards on Oklahoma State, but that hasn’t aged well with the way the Pokes have struggled defensively so far this season. Meanwhile, the Hogs started SEC play with a win at Auburn, but it didn’t inspire confidence that Taylen Green is equipped to handle SEC play.
Green completed only 12-of-27 passes for 138 yards with two interceptions, but did have 107 yards on the ground. However, he will face a far tougher defense in Texas A&M that is currently 18th in defensive line yards.
Meanwhile, the Razorbacks have been sturdy on the defensive line, 13th in EPA/Rush and 24th in defensive line yards, which should surely keep the team in the mix against Texas A&M’s rush first offense – no matter who plays quarterback. Despite getting the most touches, Le’Veon Moss’ rush yards under can be worthwhile in this type of situation.
Arkansas may look like an over team with Bobby Petrino at the helm, but this game may be decided between the 40’s with a preference for the under.

Oklahoma vs. Auburn Betting Notes

Two teams quickly scrambling for bowl eligibility meet on Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Each group has been cycling through quarterbacks looking for the right answer, and we will see freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. draw the start while Auburn is likely going back to freshman Hank Brown.
Hawkins Jr. finished the game for the Sooners, but with the state of the offensive line, it looks like the offense can’t thrive against any competent SEC competition, ranking outside the top 100 in PFF’s pass and run block grades already this season.
Auburn’s defense has been strong to start the season, ranking 32nd in EPA/Play, which makes me bullish on the under.
However, I can’t look past the fact that OU can be vulnerable to careless errors from Hawkins in his first start as well as Brent Veanbles’ elite defense capable of making plays against Auburn’s group of suspect play callers that can set up short fields and scoring opportunities.
It’s under or nothing for me, but boy is this season going off the rails for each team.

Wisconsin vs. USC Betting Notes

How does USC respond after a heartbreaking loss to Michigan?
The team will face Wisconsin backup quarterback Brayden Locke, who got a BYE week to get re-acclimated to the team’s offense as QB1 after seeing time last season.
Locke, a former Mississippi State recruit under Mike Leach, may be able to do fine in this offense.
Can the Badgers take advantage of a USC team that could be battered and bruised following a physical affair in Ann Arbor? The Trojans are possibly down tight end Lake McRee, among others.
I do think Wisconsin can score, and I’m certainly eyeing Will Pauling’s over receiving yards in this matchup against a still shaky USC secondary, but it won’t be able to hold down the Trojans’ elite pass catchers.
Pauling has 29 targets in three games with Locke.
The Badgers’ defense is 85th in EPA/Pass and isn’t getting pressure whatsoever on the quarterback with only 12 tackles for loss. Further, the team is vulnerable to big plays, 124th in explosive pass rate.
Look for Zachariah Branch to rip off a handful of big plays come Saturday back at home with a receiving yard prop in the low 50’s.

Louisville vs. Notre Dame Betting Notes

Notre Dame continues to take money in this matchup, opening as about five point favorites and now sitting near a touchdown.
The Irish are finishing a grueling stretch of play that includes an opening game at Texas A&M before a loss as four touchdown favorites against Northern Illinois. Factor in two more games, and now three starting offensive linemen out for the year, the Irish are up against it.
Meanwhile, Louisville comes in untested, but far fresher after getting an early BYE week, with the coaching edge and the big play capability that Notre Dame lacks.
Notre Dame ranks 98th in explosive pass rate while Louisville ranks 42nd.
Jeff Brohm has thrived in the role as an underdog. Brohm is 20-13-1 against the spread (ATS) as a head coach in the role of an underdog since landing at Purdue as the head coach of the ‘Spoilermakers,' and that moniker has carried over to Louisville, including beating ND last season.
Get this, in that sample, Brohm-led teams are 15-19 straight up as an underdog.
Yes, Louisville upset Notre Dame last season and revenge is surely on the Irish's minds, but this point spread is far too wide with a low total and the underdog having a coaching edge as well as the big play capability.

Mississippi State vs. Texas Betting Notes

Mississippi State is down its starting quarterback Blake Shapen, making what’s most certainly the worst team in the SEC even worse.
Texas, meanwhile, may get Quinn Ewers back from his oblique injury, which can lead to more stat padding for his eventual Heisman Trophy case.
There’s not much to glean here other than the ability to see what the Longhorns QB room looks like in a warm up game for the team’s grueling SEC schedule.

Iowa State vs. Houston Betting Notes

I think the key in this one is Rocco Becht of Iowa State, as Houston has been elite against the run this season, but is vulnerable against the pass.
Becht has limited his deep passes so far this season, making only 10 passes of 20-or-more yards, but is completing 60% of those.
The Cyclones may be more than willing to chuck it around as the team is 76th in EPA/Rush, but is 29th EPA/Pass with an elite offensive line that has allowed only two sacks thus far.
Houston’s offense can’t do anything on offense. Outside of a 33-point outburst against a poor Rice team, Houston has scored a combined 19 points in three games.
The Cyclones defense is allowing about four yards per play, 12th in the country, which should make for another limited effort from the Cougars.
There isn’t much on the docket for Iowa State, a home game against Baylor is next, as this game can be a bit of a slog and an under matchup.

Stanford vs. Clemson Betting Notes

Clemson continues to torch opposing defenses, but I’m still not all the way in on this offense. While it helps to not play Georgia, the team has benefitted from some easy competition.
Sure, Stanford won’t test this group like an elite defense will in a potential College Football Playoff meeting, but this defense still has shown some suspect signs in order to cover big point spreads.
The Tigers are 115th in yards per play allowed and have only four sacks on the season.
While there have been blowouts in both directions for all three of Clemson’s games, I’m not trusting this group to cover big point spreads against a team that appears to be far improved this season.
Stanford covered against TCU at home and beat Syracuse on the road last week as an underdog of more than a touchdown.
The offense has been capable, and the defense is much improved, top 10 in EPA/Rush this season.
It’s dog or nothing for me here, especially at over three touchdowns.

Ohio State vs. Michigan State Betting Notes

Michigan State has been banged up across the offensive line and at wide receiver over the last two weeks and is up against it facing arguably the best team in the country in Ohio State, who ranks No. 1 in net EPA/Play.

Spartans’ quarterback Aidan Chiles is incredibly talented but doesn’t have the necessary blocking to hold up against the vaunted Buckeyes defense. Chiles also has made suspect decisions on the field, making six big-time throws to 11 turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus.
Further, Sparty has averaged the eighth most penalty yards per game, a big issues when trying to cover a big point spread.
Michigan State is bottom 10 in explosive pass rate, which can send this game out of whack with OSU’s stable of receivers, featuring freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.

Illinois vs. Penn State Betting Notes

Is Penn State an over team?
The Nittany Lions are far improved on offense under offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnecki, but the defense has been tested at times by the likes of Bowling Green already this season.
Factor in that Penn State is down stud defensive back KJ Winston, I believe that Illinois’ passing game can find success in the air.
Luke Altmyer has thrived with the addition of Zhakari Franklin as the team is 12th in EPA/Pass this season. I’ve played both Altmyer’s passing yards over and Franklin’s receiving yards over on Saturday night.
However, Penn State should score in this one just fine. Last season, Kotelnecki’s Kansas team lit up the Fighting Illini for 34 points and more than seven yards per play en route to a win.
I bet the over in this one.

Georgia vs. Alabama Betting Notes

For a game with a ton of questions between two National Championship contenders, there are a fair amount of questions.
I question both team’s back sevens, most importantly.
Alabama’s Jalen Milroe has only passed for 590 yards but hasn’t had a turnover yet while posting an average depth of target of more than 12 yards per pass. Can Milroe take the top off this Georgia secondary?
He has 30 big time throws to zero turnover worthy plays on passes of 20+ yards down the field. This guy hasn’t made any mistake on deep passes, which has worked nicely in Kalen DeBoer’s offensive scheme.
Milroe of course is a devastating rusher, and we saw DeBoer deploy him as one against Wisconsin. I expect no different at home against the Bulldogs. While Milroe only had 29 yards rushing in the SEC Championship Game last season, I expect him to avoid back-breaking sacks and for him to be utilized on more QB-designed runs this season to get that total well over 40.5.
Meanwhile, if Georgia lets Carson Beck cook, he should be more than able to get to 250 passing yards, over his total, and likely to victory.
When Beck has passed the ball over 30 times over the last two seasons, he has passed for 297.7 yards.
Alabama’s defense that needs to replace three NFL Draft picks haven’t been tested yet. Georgia would be wise too.
I don’t have a bet on the game, but I keep ending my thoughts with the game going over the pedestrian total.

Washington State vs. Boise State Betting Notes

Two awful defenses meet in Boise on Saturday night, which is evident in the total that is north of 64.
To me, this is a dog or over spot as I’m not sure how Boise State slows down Washington State’s offense that has point totals of 70, 37, 24 and 54.
Boise State ranks 128th in EPA/Play so far this season, using stud running back Ashton Jeanty (10.5 yards per carry) to offset its defensive concerns.
John Mateer has been electric to watch, compiling more than 1,500 total yards with 16 touchdowns, but erratic play has led to four interceptions. He has only completed 54% of his passes.
Wazzu’s defense does leave some to be desired, 83rd in EPA/Play, but I believe the team can hang around this number in a one score affair that will likely be determined late.

Arizona vs. Utah Betting Notes

No, we don’t know if Cam Rising is playing.
But, we do know that Isaac Wilson is more than capable
Arizona got a BYE week after getting shut down by Kansas State on the road, and I fear something similar may be brewing as the Wildcats’ offense already appears to have been figured out.
The Wildcats are hyper-focused on the passing game around quarterback Noah Fifita and stud receiver Tetairoa McMillian, who has 33 targets through three games. For reference, Fifita has made 99 pass attempts thus far.
Utah’s defense is far too sophisticated to allow McMillan to take over this game, especially at home. The Utes currently rank 10th in defensive pass success rate and 14th in EPA/Pass.

Oregon vs. UCLA Betting Notes

Oregon returns from a BYE week, but the team continues to be banged up, especially on the offensive line.
Projected starter right guard Matthew Bedford re-injured his leg in the BYE week, so it appears that the Ducks will continue to have issues on the offensive line for the rest of the season.
However, I’m not sure if the Bruins have the ability to keep down this Oregon offense.
The team has allowed 34 or more to both LSU and Indiana and are outside the top 100 in tackles for loss and EPA/Pass.
Dillon Gabriel will be able to light up this lackluster UCLA secondary, who allowed over 300 yards to Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) and Kurtis Rourke (Indiana). I’m keying in on his passing yards prop on Saturday night.