Arsenal vs. Liverpool Prediction, Odds, and Best Bets for Premier League Week 9

Cem Yolbulan | Oct 26, 2024

IMAGO/Martin Rickett

Regardless of what happens in Premier League Week 9, it’s almost a certainty that Manchester City will come out as the winners. While the reigning champions are hosting bottom-feeders Southampton, their two biggest rivals in the title race, Arsenal and Liverpool will be battling in the matchup of the week. 

While Liverpool sits atop the standings with 21 points, Man City is right behind with 20. Arsenal, on the other hand, is in third place with 17 points. Either City overtakes Liverpool in the standings or Arsenal falls farther from the title race if they drop points. Once they take care of Southampton at home, Pep Guardiola will sit back and enjoy this primetime Sunday showdown between the two giants. 

Liverpool continues to impress, especially on the defensive end. In 11 matches between the Champions League and the Premier League, they only allowed four goals. The transition from Jürgen Klopp to Arne Slot has been smoother than anyone imagined. Now, they are facing their toughest test of the campaign so far. 

Arsenal has been similarly impressive on the defensive side of the ball, extending their clean sheet streak in the Champions League to three games after the 1-0 victory over Shakhtar Donetsk mid-week. 

However, Mikel Arteta’s side has been plagued by disciplinary issues. Through the first eight weeks of the Premier League season, Arsenal was shown a red card in three different games, all resulting in the Gunners dropping points. 

Arsenal simply can’t afford to lose at home to Liverpool. Such a result would leave them eight points behind the top of the table, a gap potentially too large to close when going up against two elite sides like Liverpool and Man City. 

Let’s take a deep dive into this high-stakes clash.

Arsenal vs. Liverpool Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Moneyline:

Arsenal: +145
Draw: +235
Liverpool: +195

Total Goals: 

Over 2.5: -115
Under 2.5: -110

Both Teams to Score:

Yes: -155
No: +120

Spread:

Arsenal +0.5: -255
Liverpool +0.5: -185

Arsenal vs. Liverpool How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, October 27
• Time: 12:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Emirates Stadium, London, UK
• How to Watch (TV): Peacock, NBC Sports, Fubo

Arsenal vs. Liverpool Prediction and Pick

Arsenal is the side with more to lose on Sunday. Liverpool manager Arne Slot would be more than thrilled with a draw if given the opportunity before the game. 

At the same time, Arsenal also has more key absences. While Liverpool will be missing star goalkeeper Alisson and forward Diogo Jota because of injuries, Arsenal will be significantly more short-handed, especially on the defensive end. 

William Saliba is suspended for the game, and Ricardo Calafiori suffered a knee injury on Tuesday against Shakhtar. Takehiro Tomiyasu and Jurrien Timber have missed the last few games while star playmaker Martin Odegaard has been out since early September. 

Gabriel Magalhaes’ partnership with Saliba is the backbone of Arsenal’s defense. Saliba is arguably the best defensive player on the team and his absence will be severely felt. Calafiori’s combination of strength, physicality, and technique as a left back is impossible to replace. Not having the emerging star against Mohamed Salah is a huge loss for Arsenal. 

Arsenal’s biggest weapon all year has been set pieces. They score more goals via corner kicks than any other team in Europe. Mikel Arteta and the coaching staff are masterful in creating specific game plans and set plays based on the opposition. 

However, their creativity and production in possession have been less convincing. In Odegaard’s absence, they lack the passing and the offensive juice to create consistently. Add their lack of elite finishers up top and you have a team that can struggle to score. 

Even though Klopp’s Liverpool liked to push forward and press high at every opportunity, Arne Slot has a more cautious approach. The Reds have been more solid in the back this season and they should have a good chance of containing Arsenal on Sunday.

Considering the fact that Liverpool would be happy with a draw, they should be able to escape Emirates with it. Under 2.5 goals may be a safer bet for the more risk-averse but I like the odds of a draw at +235. 

Pick: Draw +235

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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