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Roundtable: MLS playoff predictions
The MLS playoff field is down to eight teams, with D.C. United, Montreal Impact, the Seattle Sounders and Portland Timbers ultimately holding serve at home and surviving a dramatic one-game knockout first round.
After late heroics, controversy, an avalanche of goals (including a spectacular bicycle kick) and a penalty shootout for the ages over the past couple of nights, we're left with a quarterfinal field that features the four survivors, the Supporters' Shield-winning New York Red Bulls, Columbus Crew, FC Dallas and Vancouver Whitecaps. The four two-leg matchups kick off on Sunday with a quadruple-header, one that will test the emotional and physical strength of the teams who had to play in the grueling and taxing first round.
So how will the rest of the postseason unfold? SI's Grant Wahl, Brian Straus, Liviu Bird and Avi Creditor take a look at their crystal balls and predict what has proven in the past to be as unpredictable as anything: The MLS playoffs.
Who will win the Eastern Conference?
MATCHUP | First Leg | Second Leg |
|---|---|---|
1. New York Red Bulls vs. 4. D.C. United | Nov. 1, 3 p.m. | Nov. 8, TBD |
2. Columbus Crew SC vs. 3. Montreal Impact | Nov. 1, 7 p.m. | Nov. 8, TBD |
GRANT WAHL: This year’s Crew reminds me a lot of last year’s New England Revolution, a team that was ready to make the leap and still is heading into the MLS postseason. Gregg Berhalter’s team has been peaking for the playoffs with Sunday’s 5-0 win over D.C. United, even though Columbus was missing its two best players (Kei Kamara and Federico Higuaín). The Crew face difficult tests against a speedy Montreal team led by Didier Drogba and perhaps a conference final against the hard-pressing New York Red Bulls, but the Columbus attack is deadly, and the defense has gotten things together.
BRIAN STRAUS: The MLS playoffs are designed to be unpredictable and give everyone an equal chance. Home-field advantage was crippled when the league did away with the best-of-three series in 2003, then erased with the introduction of the away goals tiebreaker last year.
Man with The Plan: Inside Ali Curtis's task of revamping the Red Bulls
They’re impossible to predict—unless one team clearly stands out. And this year, in the East, New York is that team. Balanced, cohesive and on a mission after years of postseason failure and a winter of discontent, the Red Bulls have the pieces in place for a run to the final. Their seven-point margin over second-seeded Columbus is tied for the league’s second largest in the past seven years (in either conference).
In MLS, that’s a rout. The best defense in the conference, the leadership of Sacha Kljestan and Dax McCarty and the opportunism of Bradley Wright-Phillips and Mike Grella will be enough.
LIVIU BIRD:Really, the only plausible answer here is the New York Red Bulls. Jesse Marsch's team has been one of the most consistent this season, and the scary thing about the Red Bulls' run to the Supporters' Shield is that it looks sustainable. The usual talks of the Curse of Caricola will probably come up, but somehow, I don't think that's in Ali Curtis' giant dossier, which seems to have done O.K. for the team so far.
CREDITOR: Can you imagine if you parlayed the Mets making the World Series with the Red Bulls making the MLS Cup final back in March? The Red Bulls are solid where it counts, well-coached, motivated and rested. A rivalry series is never easy, especially in the playoffs, but there's something special about this group and its yearlong journey.
Who will win the Western Conference?
MATCHUP | First Leg | Second Leg |
|---|---|---|
1. FC Dallas vs. 4. Seattle Sounders | Nov. 1, 9:30 p.m. | Nov. 8, TBD |
2. Vancouver Whitecaps vs. 3. Portland Timbers | Nov. 1, 5 p.m. | Nov. 8, TBD |
WAHL: Seattle. The West is wide open after Seattle finally exorcised its demons in eliminating the defending champ LA Galaxy on Wednesday. Dallas, Vancouver and Portland have all been impressive at times this season, but they have yet to validate it in the playoffs. Seattle, meanwhile, has big-game players performing like it (hello, Clint Dempsey), and leaders like Brad Evans who are primed for a title run. If there’s going to be a year for Seattle, this is it.
STRAUS: The team tied with the Red Bulls with that seven-point margin is FC Dallas, the West’s most consistent team this season. But the playoffs often aren’t about consistency, and the Seattle team FCD must face in the conference quarterfinals isn’t the one that slumped to fourth place. In fact, after Wednesday’s 3-2 knockout round defeat of the LA Galaxy, the Sounders are unbeaten in nine.
Sounders overcome Galaxy's playoff dominance at last, can look forward
FCD’s reward for the finishing first in the West is a Sunday visit to Seattle, where it’s 1-6-2 since the Sounders joined MLS. The playoffs are designed to punish the favorites, and they will again this year. The Sounders are rounding into form at the right time, have the league’s most stingy defense and its most fearsome attacking duo. Seattle, which hasn't lost a game since August, finally will get over the hump and win the conference title.
BIRD: The West is more difficult to call, especially with how close all the playoff teams finished in the standings. I'll go a little bit out of the ordinary and call the Portland Timbers to come through here. The team finished the regular season strong, and Caleb Porter's shift of Darlington Nagbe into central midfield might be one of the best personnel decisions he's made. The team has looked much closer to its 2013 form in recent weeks, which can only be a good thing for Portland's chances.
The Timbers' biggest challenge now will be turning around on three days' rest after their wild shootout win over Sporting Kansas City to get a meaningful result at home in the first leg of the conference semifinal.
CREDITOR: Don't underestimate the boost provided by Seattle getting past its playoff nemesis LA. Getting to host the first leg of the semifinal vs. top-ranked FC Dallas works in Seattle's favor given the current momentum, and the Sounders went 1-0-1 vs. FCD this season as well, so this is far from a lopsided 1-v-4 matchup. Health remains a potential roadblock and defensively Seattle needs to tighten up, but the pieces are there for a run to the final.
Who is a surprise candidate to make a deep run?
WAHL: Montreal. The Impact are different with Drogba, who has scored 12 goals in 12 games, but don’t sleep on Ignacio Piatti, a superb No. 10 who has been shredding defenses. The series against Columbus is going to be a barnburner.
STRAUS: D.C. United already has opened some eyes with its performance in Wednesday’s knockout round win over New England. Yes, the refereeing was a factor. But United still was the better team and played with a confidence and fluidity we don’t often associate with a club accustomed to grinding out results. If it’s true that form goes out the window in a rivalry, then United might be poised for a potential upset when it faces New York in the conference semis. Starting at home at RFK Stadium will help.
BIRD: I guess by calling the Timbers to make the final, that counts as a surprise team making a deep run. I'd also look for the Impact in the East, especially if Drogba continues his goal-a-game tear. If any team finds a way to neutralize his threat, though, the Impact could be in trouble.
CREDITOR: If I'm ranking the remaining teams, D.C. United is coming in eighth. But if I'm ranking the remaining starting goalkeepers, I don't think there's one I'd rather have than Bill Hamid (all due respect to Vancouver's David Ousted and New York's Luis Robles, who have been sensational this season). Hamid was a savior in the first round against New England and can (can, not necessarily saying will) singlehandedly keep the Red Bulls at bay in their semifinal. Remember, they can't hold him back.
Who will win the 2015 MLS Cup?
WAHL: Seattle. The Sounders will likely have to win on the road if they make it to the final, but that shouldn’t stop a veteran team that (when everyone’s available) really is the league’s best. I’m predicting a Columbus-Seattle final in Ohio, but wherever Seattle goes, the Sounders have the difference-makers to win their first MLS Cup title.
STRAUS: I picked Seattle at the start of the season so for consistency’s sake, I’ll stick with them now. As GM Garth Lagerwey said last week, the Sounders “are built to win big games.” New York will lift the MLS Cup under Curtis and Marsch–just not yet.
BIRD: This feels like the year the Red Bulls get it done. It would be a great story, with the turmoil surrounding Marsch's hiring and the ill feelings from the fan base toward Curtis at the start of the year. It would also be classic MLS, where anything can happen if a team gets hot enough. Here's hoping for a snowy final at Red Bull Arena, at the very least.
CREDITOR: From #RedBullOut and a vicious town hall meeting to lifting the MLS Cup trophy in front of those very same fans at Red Bull Arena 11 months later. Is there anything more MLS than that?
GALLERY: Best tifos around the world
Best soccer tifos from around the world
Galatasaray fans display a sensational "Rocky" tifo ahead of their clash against rival Fenerbahce. It didn't inspire a victory, though. The Turkish rivals played to a 0-0 draw.
Borussia Dortmund fans channel their 1963 cup triumph over Benfica ahead of the teams' second leg in the Champions League round of 16 at Signal Iduna Park.
Hapoel Be'er Sheva fans turn to Moses for tifo inspiration, with his splitting the Red Sea illustrating how "impossible is nothing" in their Europa League series against Besiktas.
Fans of Tunisia's Club Africain display this pointed tifo at a friendly against PSG, whose Qatari owners have pumped millions and millions into the club.
U.S. fans in Columbus, Ohio, make a "One Nation, One Team" statement ahead of the USMNT's World Cup qualifying match against Mexico on November 11, 2016.
Germany fans display their heart for the team colors ahead of a World Cup qualifier against Czech Republic in October 2016.
Italy fans spell out their support for the Azzurri ahead of a massive World Cup qualifier vs. Spain in October 2018.
Iceland fans keep up their world-famous passion for the national team during a World Cup qualifier against Turkey in October 2016.
Fans in the United Arab Emirates set their sights on reaching the 2018 World Cup in Russia during a qualifying match vs. Australia in September 2016.
Colombia fans send a massive jersey around the stadium during a World Cup qualifier vs. Venezuela in September 2016.
Seattle Sounders fans turn to Game Of Thrones for inspiration in a game against the Cascadia rival Vancouver Whitecaps in September 2016.
Djurgardens fans go all out in Sweden for a match against AIK in September 2016.
Zulte Waregem fans prepare Kortrijk for the absolute worst in this Belgian top-flight match in September 2016.
Seattle Sounders fans turn their pop culture reference to Poltergeist in March 2016 ahead of the season home opener against Sporting Kansas City.
The Timbers Army doubles down on their Eastbound and Down theme, adding another wrinkle during the club's MLS Western Conference final first leg vs. FC Dallas on November 22, 2015 at Providence Park.
Fans make a French flag tifo at Wembley Stadium during the singing of Le Marseillaise ahead of England's friendly vs. France, which took place days after the terrorist attacks in Paris.
The Timbers Army referenced Eastbound & Down's Kenny Powers with their "Cup Bound and Down" tifo for the Portland Timbers' MLS playoff elimination game against Sporting Kansas City on October 29, 2015.
Brondby IF fans display a gladiator holding up a lion's head during the team's Danish Alka Superliga match against FC Copenhagen, whose logo is a lion's head, on September 27, 2015.
New England Revolution fans equate Jermaine Jones to Indiana Jones on their quest to capture the 2015 MLS Cup on September 26, 2015.
New England Revolution fans display a Lion King theme in honor of Orlando City FC's first visit to Gillette Stadium on September 5, 2015.
Red Bulls fans take a shot at NYCFC's two summer arrivals, 37-year-old Frank Lampard and 36-year-old Andrea Pirlo, ahead of their third MLS meeting of 2015.
Germany fans in Cologne salute their World Cup champions ahead of a friendly against the United States in June, 2015.
Real Madrid fans went all out prior to the second leg of the 2014-15 Champions League semifinal vs. Juventus.
Lazio fans display a stunning eagle tifo ahead of the Rome derby against AS Roma in their penultimate Serie A match of the 2014-15 season.
Barcelona fans bid farewell to veteran midfielder Xavi with this banner at his last league game at Camp Nou before he departs for Qatari club Al Sadd.
Fans at Anfield pay tribute to Steven Gerrard in his final home match as a Liverpool player in May 2015.
Juventus fans state their case to beat Real Madrid in the 2014-15 Champions League semifinals and reach the final in Berlin.
Fans at Benfica's Estadio da Luz remind rival Porto who the Primeira Liga reigning champion is during an April 2015 match in Portugal.
New York Red Bulls fans send a pointed message to their NYCFC counterparts prior to the teams' first MLS meeting in May, 2015.
Inter Milan's Curva Nord announces its presence ahead of the April 2015 Derby della Madonnina–the annual clashes between city rivals Inter and AC Milan.
Bayern Munich fans implore their club to (translated) "Never give up" in the Champions League quarterfinal second leg vs. Porto. Bayern then turned a 3-1 first-leg deficit into a 7-4 aggregate win and a place in the semifinals.
Dortmund fans commemorate their 1997 Champions League trophy in the club's clash vs. Juventus–the opponent on the wrong side of that title bout.
Portland Timbers fans speak out against homophobia with this tifo in a 2013 match against Chivas USA
Atletico's supporters display a banner reading "Atleti crushes" before the Spanish league match between Atletico Madrid and FC Barcelona at the Vicente Calderon stadium in Madrid,
Borussia Dortmund fans put on a remarkable display ahead of a UEFA Champions League quarterfinal second leg match.
Brondby IF fans unveil a tifo ahead of a match in Denmark against Randers FC.
FC Barcelona fans display a huge banner in memory of former head coach Tito Vilanova.
Galatasaray fans support their team during the UEFA Champions League Group D match between Borussia Dortmund and Galatasaray at the Turk Telekom Arena in Istanbul.
The American Outlaws unveil a huge tifo ahead of a 2014 World Cup send-off match between the USA and Turkey at Red Bull Arena in Harrison, N.J.
Marseille's supporters use paper sheets to create an "OM" (Olympique de Marseille) tifo at the beginning of the French L1 football match between Marseille and Genoble.
Seattle Sounders fans display their tifo that shows coach Sigi Schmid playing cards and holding a Royal Flush before a match against the Portland Timbers.
Panathinaikos Athens fans display a banner during the UEFA Europa League match against Dynamo Moscow.
Fans of the Saudi Al-Hilal team celebrate after the scoring of a goal against Uzbekistan's Bunyodkor.
Seattle Sounders fans unveil a tifo inspired from the “Build a Bonfire” chant, featuring Sounder players holding torches on horseback ahead of a game against the Portland Timbers.
Fans of Hertha BSC before the Bundesliga match between Hertha BSC and Werder Bremen in Berlin.
Sporting Kansas City fans channel their inner Mario ahead of the 2013 MLS Cup final vs. Real Salt Lake.
Brondby IF fans.
Thousands of Barcelona fans hold up cards to spell out "Barca! Orgull," which translates to "Barcelona pride" ahead of a Champions League clash with Bayern Munich at Camp Nou.
Fans raise a tifo celebrating “Community, Club and Country” ahead of a CONCACAF Gold Cup match between the USA and Belize in Portland, Oregon.
Vitesse fans unfurl a massive Eagle banner at the Dutch Eredivisie match against Ajax at the GelreDome.
Valencia fans drape a banner featuring a king for a Copa del Rey ("The King's Cup) match against Atletico Madrid.
Juventus fans make a statement in Turin in a match vs. Inter Milan.
Dortmund fans put on another strong display at a Bundesliga match against Mainz 05.
German fans boast the newest star earned by the national team, symbolizing its 2014 World Cup triumph, at a Euro 2016 qualifying match in Dortmund.
Real Madrid fans make a point to display the club's 10 European championships ahead of the October 2014 clash against rival Barcelona at the Bernabeu.
San Jose Earthquakes fans unleash a massive tifo to mark the opening of Avaya Stadium, MLS's newest soccer-specific venue, in March 2015.
Barcelona fans show all who the real 12th man is ahead of the March 2015 Clásico vs. Real Madrid.
Ahead of a clash with Mexican foe Monterrey, Tigres players are treated by this message by its fervent supporters.
Standard Liege fans have a pointed message for Steven Defour, who departed the club for Belgian rival Anderlecht.
Orlando City fans mark their club's inaugural MLS game vs. fellow expansion side New York City FC with a statement that the Lions' "reign begins now."
Real Madrid fans salute Ballon d'Or winner Cristiano Ronaldo after he captured the most prestigious individual prize in world soccer again.
Vitesse fans pay homage to Operation Market Garden ahead of an Eredivisie match against SC Heerenveen.
Sevilla's fans deploy a giant banner in the stands before the UEFA Europa league final match between Benfica and Sevilla.
Fans in Liverpool’s Kop End at Anfield commemorate those lost in the Hillsborough disaster.
Lyon fans during a game against Saint Etienne.
