Best, Worst, Most Likely Last-16 Draw Scenarios for EPL's Four Champions League Sides

Four Premier league teams are through to the last 16 of the Champions League, and given the draw stipulations, we can examine the most likely outcomes for each side, along with the best- and worst-case scenarios.

90 Min | Dec 13, 2018

Best, Worst, Most Likely Last-16 Draw Scenarios for EPL's Four Champions League Sides /

The Champions League group stage is finally over, and fans of the last 16 teams remaining in the competition can start to get excited about the knockout phase.

The draw for the last 16 will take place on Monday, but sports commentator and football data guru Alexis Martín-Tamayo - better known as MisterChip - has crunched the numbers to work out the probability of each potential match in the first round of knockout matches.

The only stipulations on Monday's draw are that teams from the same country cannot face each other in the last 16 of the Champions League, as well as teams who have qualified from the same group.

This was just the eighth time that all four English sides reached the knockout stage of the Champions League, a feat made all the more impressive as Liverpool and Tottenham had to overcome difficult hurdles to go through.

Here's how each team's possible draw breaks down:

Manchester City

Premier League champions Manchester City were the only English team to win their group, and MisterChip revealed on his official Twitter account that Pep Guardiola's side are most likely to be drawn against reigning Europa League champions Atlético Madrid.

In fact, MisterChip's data shows that there is a 29% that City are matched up against Atlético and that makes it the most likely draw of the entire last 16. That is because Manchester City (4) and Atléti (5) have the least amount of potential opponents out of the qualified teams.

City only other possible possible opponents are AS Roma, Schalke 04 or Ajax.

Best Draw	Schalke 04
Worst Draw	Atletico Madrid
Most Likely	Atletico Madrid

Liverpool

Liverpool has Alisson Becker to thank for a place in the knockout stages of the Champions League following his last-minute save to deny Napoli striker Arkadiusz Milik a decisive goal in the last few moments of their group finale.

Jürgen Klopp has a 17.6% chance to have a homecoming against Borussia Dortmund according to MisterChip's data, although the Reds could be drawn against five other group winners: Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Juventus and Porto.

Best Draw	Porto
Worst Draw	Barcelona
Most Likely	Dortmund

Manchester United

Both Manchester United and Tottenham also have six teams they could be drawn up against in the first round of knockout matches. While they will both avoid Manchester City, United can't face Juventus and Spurs will be spared a match against Barcelona.

The data shows that, just like with Liverpool, they are most likely to be drawn against Bundesliga giants Borussia Dortmund with a probability just shy of 18%.

Best Draw	Porto
Worst Draw	Barcelona
Most Likely	Dortmund

Tottenham Hotspur

Like United, as second seeds Spurs can face Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain, Dortmund and Porto. However, Mauricio Pochettino's men can also be paired with Juventus.

While Dortmund is also the likeliest draw for Tottenham, they have a (marginally) higher chance of facing last season's winners Real Madrid than Liverpool or United.

Best Draw	Porto
Worst Draw	Juventus
Most Likely	Dortmund

The exact dates for the last 16 will all be confirmed when the draw happens on Monday, but the first legs of the games will take place on February 12-13 and 19-20, while the second legs take place on March 5-6 and 12-13.

Published Dec 13, 2018

90 MIN