MLS Playoffs: Predictions for League's New-Look Postseason

Who will emerge at the end of the new single-elimination gauntlet? Avi Creditor and Luis Miguel Echegaray have their say.

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MLS enters a brave new world this weekend, when the 2019 playoffs kick off and the new single-elimination format is put to the test.

After a two-week, international-break-induced layoff, MLS's 14 remaining contenders brace for a sprint to the finish line. It all starts this weekend, with six first-round matchups, followed by a midweek set of conference semifinals.

The conference finals take place Oct. 29 and 30, followed by an MLS Cup final to be hosted by the finalist with the best regular-season record on Nov. 10.

The new format was designed to reward higher seeds with home playoff games–and the top seeds with first-round byes–remove the away-goal tiebreaker from the equation and add excitement and drama into the mix. Whether that detracts from competitive reasons–i.e., setting up a three- or four-game cup competition to win the championship after a 34-game season where things could hinge on, say, a dubious penalty call–remains to be seen.

When all is said and done, who will win it all, what will the chief deciding factors be and who may emerge as a playoff hero? SI's Avi Creditor and Luis Miguel Echegaray have their say: 

CREDITOR: O.K. Luis, the MLS playoffs finally kick off this weekend. It's a new-look format, and the top teams in each conference, LAFC and NYCFC, get to coast to the midweek conference semifinals. But there are six single-elimination matchups this weekend–three in each conference–and given how the standings fluctuated all season, there might not be a ton separating a lot of these teams. 

Which of the lower-seeded teams who are going on the road this round do you think have the best chance to cause the most trouble in the playoff bracket?

ECHEGARAY: First off, let me just say this. I LOVE this format. As our colleague Grant Wahl says, "desperation soccer is the best type of soccer." The do-or-die mentality will surely bring out the best of these teams, and I think it can really determine who is made out for playoff competition.

For me, I have to go with New England. And aside from players like MLS Newcomer of the Year Carles Gil and midseason addition Gustavo Bou, this is about one man: Bruce Arena. He has really brought a revolution to this team (thank you, I'll be here all night). Just before his arrival, the Revs had the league's worst record (2-8-2, 8 points), the league's worst goal differential (-19) and they were below FC Cincinnati in the standings. Now, look. The most successful manager in the history of the league has a legitimate chance at taking care of an Atlanta United that is obviously different under Frank de Boer than it was a season ago as champions under Tata Martino. Don't count the Revs out.

CREDITOR: The champs on the ropes already! I think the Revs definitely have some game-breaking pieces, and the one-off format definitely lends itself to favorites being dumped out off the bat. Miles Robinson has already been ruled out for their matchup, but if Josef Martinez is ready to roll–and based on his return on Decision Day he is–then I don't know that Atlanta loses at home, where it has one of the league's most definitive advantages.

I could see Portland causing more trouble out West. The Timbers may have squeaked into the playoffs and have some serious question marks–not to mention the off-field issues with Brian Fernandez and contract dispute with Diego Valeri–but they're battle-tested, and there's nobody on their half of the bracket that's going to shake them. Their matchup vs. Real Salt Lake in the first round is a coin flip to me, and then it's either at Seattle (where they emerged victorious last season) or home vs. FC Dallas to get to the conference final. That's ... awfully doable for a No. 6 seed.

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ECHEGARAY: And let's not forget about Dairon "Mr. October" Asprilla.

CREDITOR: He always seems to come through, right?!

ECHEGARAY: ALWAYS. What encapsulates the Timbers is that they've been here before and know how to take care of the opponent, home or away.

Experience and performance aside, there are other circumstances that could determine the outlook of certain fixtures, especially as teams get further into the postseason. From a player's absence due to injury or stadium issues (ahem, NYCFC) what do you think is the biggest wildcard element in the playoffs?

CREDITOR: So for me it's three-fold. NYCFC having to play at Citi Field is no small thing! Being forced into another stadium because of the baseball playoffs is just such a bad look and such a smack to the face to a team that truly earned its home-field advantage this season. Now it goes to ... another baseball stadium? In a different borough? And that's supposed to be a boost? This is the team's own doing, by being unable to sort its stadium situation despite having years to do so, but it seriously neutralizes what they're capable of in these playoffs.

Then there's Atlanta United and the injury to Robinson. He was supposed to be with the U.S. U-23s, then gets called up for the senior team after Walker Zimmerman's concussion. Then, according to Atlanta president Darren Eales, he injures his hamstring doing late-night sprints after the Cuba game. Here's Atlanta's defensive centerpiece, and he's already been ruled out for Saturday's opener vs. New England. That could torpedo Atlanta's hopes to repeat, depending on how long he'll be out.

Another hamstring injury of concern is to LAFC's Mark-Anthony Kaye, who was hurt five minutes into Canada's stunning win over the USA. He's huge for that team, and while the first-round bye gives him some more time to recover, if he can't go in the conference semifinals, LAFC could be in some early trouble.

ECHEGARAY: I agree with those factors, especially with Atlanta. Robinson's absence is definitely big, especially for a team that is already vulnerable at the back in big moments. 

I may be in the minority here, but I actually don't see NYCFC playing at Citi Field as much of an issue. Don't get me wrong, it's very inconvenient for all the reasons you have brought up, but the club has played at Citi Field before, and geographically speaking, it's not a huge shift. It's not like they're going to Connecticut, which they've had to do in the past as well.

But here's my wildcard. Zlatan Ibrahimovic. LAFC is a force and the team to watch, but it's never beaten the Galaxy and has an especially tough time playing against Zlatan, who will see the MLS playoff stage for the first time. That to me is the biggest hurdle, and LAFC's biggest nightmare scenario could just be a playoff edition of El Trafico.

Kelvin Kuo/USA Today Sports

CREDITOR: No doubt about that. That's if the Galaxy even get there, though! They really put themselves in a tough spot by collapsing vs. Houston (again!) on Decision Day and having to settle for a road game against a very good home team in Minnesota in the first round. But Zlatan is certainly capable of taking over these playoffs. Who else might you see rising up and being the story of the postseason?

ECHEGARAY: I have to return to New York and go with the entirety of NYCFC's offensive firepower, a multidimensional threat against anyone. When they're on, they're on. In the past, when discussing New York City's chances in the postseason, it always began and ended with David Villa, but Domenec Torrent's side is now a dragon with many heads. 

NYCFC scored 63 goals in the regular season (only LAFC had more) and they came from everywhere. Three players scored over 10 goals. Alexandru Mitrita, Valentin Castellanos and now a healthy Heber are all capable of creating game-winners. And then you have Maxi Moralez, Ismael Tajouri-Shradi and even Alex Ring, who scored four goals this year. If Jesus Medina is capable of elevating his game (he's been more quiet than expected this season), then defenders should really worry.

The other player I have to talk about is Raul Ruidiaz (it's also part of my Peruvian contract). We haven't talked about Seattle that much, but we obviously know how dangerous and effective this team can be. We forget that he was injured for a part of the season, but now fully healthy and playing at CenturyLink Field in front of his own fans, he could turn it up even more.

CREDITOR: Definitely. I'll stay in Seattle and pick his playmaking teammate Nicolas Lodeiro–though the two really go hand-in hand, with Lodeiro's ability to create for the likes of Ruidiaz and Jordan Morris the foundation for what the Sounders are capable of this postseason.

In the East, I like Alejandro Pozuelo to step forward, for similar reasons. One-off playoff games tend to be decided by game-breaking players, and Pozuelo is certainly one of those. He was on fire down the stretch, and I don't think Toronto will have a problem dispatching D.C. United before facing the balanced NYCFC approach at a baseball stadium TBD. In two games this season vs. NYCFC, Pozuelo had three goals and an assist.

Of course, the obvious answer is the soon-to-be MLS MVP Carlos Vela. It doesn't get better than what Vela did for LAFC this season: 34 goals, 15 assists and being as consistent of a force as there is in the league. He helped LAFC set single-season records for points and goal differential, and the club eased its way to the Supporters' Shield. But if it doesn't win MLS Cup, does it tarnish what they accomplished this season?

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ECHEGARAY: As you said, this season has ultimately been about one team and one man: LAFC and Carlos Vela. I think, honestly, if this team doesn't win MLS Cup then, yes, it tarnishes what they have accomplished. Think about it. If you were an LAFC fan, as proud as you are of this year's achievements–team and individual–it really will mean very little if you don't finish the job, which is to claim your first MLS Cup. It's not to say that the regular season records don't count for anything, of course they do. But in the end, every team is here for one goal: to win MLS Cup. And LAFC is the best team in the league, it has Vela, a talented squad, an experienced manager who gets the best out of his team, incredible fans and they're playing the entire postseason at home. Anything else but hoisting the 2019 MLS Cup trophy at Banc of California stadium would be a stain on the season.

CREDITOR: It's all certainly lined up for them, but the format of the playoffs, to me, gives them a little bit of an out. Freak things happen. If they lose, for instance, because of a bad call–does MLS have those regularly?–then should that really be held against them? Of course it's all about finishing the job, and it would leave a sour taste if they're unable to, but the league hasn't seen a team as dominant as this, and whether they win a single-elimination cup competition or not, it shouldn't detract from that.

Which brings me to my final question for you: who do you see winning it all? Will it be LAFC? NYCFC? Someone aside from the top seeds?

ECHEGARAY: Sometimes, when the answer appears so simple, it's because it is. Like the hip hop storylines from the 90's, I see this as a West Coast-East Coast battle, and it's LAFC against NYCFC for MLS Cup. And because I see no stain here, I see LAFC winning it all. Carlos Vela nets a brace. LAFC wins it in extra time, and drinks are on Will Ferrell.

CREDITOR: That's probably the league's behind-the-scenes hope, right? There's plenty of valid criticism about the new playoff format and how, while it incentivizes the higher seeds by giving them home games, it really is a bit of a crapshoot. If the top two seeds emerge–teams in two giant markets, by the way–it would allow the league to boast that it's all worked out and that everything is great. Its worst nightmare, from a marketing and competition standpoint, has to be a New England-FC Dallas clash of No. 7 seeds in Frisco, or even a Philadelphia-Minnesota showdown in Chester. And all of it is extremely possible.

I'll put my money on last season's champ to repeat, though. Atlanta already won one cup competition this season by claiming the U.S. Open Cup title. It'll beat Toronto FC in the conference final and wind up hosting MLS Cup again due to an LAFC upset along the way, taking on Seattle in a final that the league would certainly welcome, too. 

As long as Robinson is healthy enough and Martinezes Josef and Pity are clicking, the Five Stripes remain a force, and they'll send retiring captain Michael Parkhurst out with another trophy lift.