The Bubble's Effectiveness, Top Teams in Trouble and More Early MLS Is Back Conclusions

After a week's worth of evidence at MLS's return-to-play tournament, we've begun to see the focus shift toward the play and three perceived powers descend into danger of being bounced early.

The most notable development from the MLS Is Back tournament this week didn't occur in the wee hours of the Orlando night on Wednesday, when San Jose did what San Jose does. It came a night earlier, in the form of a press release. 

"...1,227 individuals were tested for COVID-19 during the period from July 12-13. No individuals from this group were newly confirmed positive for COVID-19 during this period," it read.

It's not necessarily a declaration of "mission accomplished," and it's still early days (the next update is due Thursday), but that's as encouraging a sign as any that the MLS bubble is working and the the protocols in place are doing their job, despite Florida's overall outbreak seemingly accelerating by the day.

That piece of information should have a knock-on effect on the participants, whose natural anxieties regarding the safety of the competition will surely be allayed by the data. D.C. United coach Ben Olsen said as much Thursday morning as ESPN's halftime guest during FC Cincinnati and Atlanta United's match, alluding to the fact that the narrative can begin to shift from virus concerns to tactics, standings and on-field exploits. A tournament is underway, after all, and it doesn't take long for the pressure to rise on clubs after a poor performance or two.

Just like with the testing data, it's impossible to determine ironclad conclusions this early in the process, but there are some elements worth picking out from what we've seen so far as the MLS Is Back group stage forges ahead.

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Top teams are in trouble

Two games in, NYCFC and Atlanta United have no points and are staring at the very real possibility of an early exit. The situation for reigning MLS Cup champion Seattle is slightly less dire, with the club earning a single point after two games. Those three teams were second, third and fourth, respectively, in points a season ago. There was always going to be an air of unpredictability about this competition. As Orlando City captain Nani told Sports Illustrated before the opening kick, "I think it’s equal for everyone. Being away from our facilities for so long, we had to adapt ourselves to come back as soon as possible. But before you see the teams on the field playing a game, you cannot say who will be the favorite, who’s going to win or who is better than whom. You need to see the teams; you need to see how they will perform, how the motivation of the players will be."

Even so, nobody could have expected such a dull showing from the three clubs, perceived to be powers in a league whose aim is parity.

Atlanta has no goals in its two games–the first time its been shut out in back-to-back games in its time in MLS–to hammer home the point that it misses Josef Martinez's contributions. The lack of discipline from the club has also been quite telling, with Jake Mulraney managing to get two yellow cards in the opening 26 minutes vs. Cincinnati, and J.J. Williams making his club debut a brief one, after he kicked out in stoppage time and was promptly sent off vs. Cincinnati as well.

NYCFC at least has a beautiful goal to its name, courtesy of Jesus Medina, but under new manager Ronny Deila, it's lacking the overall precision and danger that made the club a contender a season ago. There's no such thing as a must-win in a made-up tournament that counts toward three regular-season games and has a decent prize for the winner, but for the club's confidence and reputation, beating expansion Inter Miami in the group finale would have to be as close as it comes.

That four of the six third-place group finishers will go through means that all three still have hope. Any 24-team tournament like a youth World Cup, Women's World Cup or Euro 2016 can serve as evidence that all it takes is one victory plus some help to go through. Nevertheless, all three have been disappointments–and their misery could have some more high-profile company (looking at you, LA Galaxy, Sporting Kansas City) as the second set of matches progresses. 

Early starts have been brutal

There's little guesswork involved into determining why the games starting at 9 a.m. ET have been a little hard on the eye. It's an unnatural start time for professionals whose bodies are accustomed to something entirely different, and the Orlando heat and humidity, while not at their peak for the day, are still quite difficult to play through. It's no surprise, then, that the opening halves of those select games have largely been toothless sparing matches at best, before things open up later on. 

Even Cincinnati, which went up a man on Atlanta early, didn't push the issue as to avoid becoming exhausted late. Instead, it bided its time before becoming more aggressive going forward and only managed a goal on a single moment of quality from 2019 No. 1 overall draft pick Frankie Amaya. The early start time and the complications that come along with it were criticized by Atlanta manager Frank de Boer in his postgame remarks.

Whereas MLS After Dark has a penchant for the insane (see: San Jose vs. Vancouver), MLS Before Breakfast has shown it could use a jolt of espresso to kick-start the participants.

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The Mueller Report

There's no sense in contemplating the candidates for a Team of the Tournament with such a small sample size, but some individuals have managed to stick out in the early going, none as much as Orlando City's Chris Mueller. Perhaps motivated by U.S. national team manager Gregg Berhalter being in attendance, Mueller has scored three goals and been an all-around presence for the host club, which already punched its ticket to the knockout stage (along with fellow group member Philadelphia).

After his goal in the opener vs. Miami, Mueller's rapid fire double vs. NYCFC displayed his scoring acumen and a deft touch in the box, and he's drawn the admiration of his new manager, Oscar Pareja.

“I believe that Chris has been improving a lot, he is a young player but he is very smart. He is a player who understands the game greatly and is getting better every day, which makes me very happy because he receives our guidance and information very well,” Pareja told the club's official website. “He is a player who has goals, a player that you can play wide, centered or even as a second forward. He is learning how to penetrate in the spaces and I see a lot of growth in Chris. We have high hopes for him with the club."

It's a little early to toot the U.S. national team horn. Taking a pair of performances from an unusual tournament and applying it to the bigger picture is certainly a choice regarding a player with 12 goals and 11 assists in 65 career MLS games, but the third-year forward is making some serious strides and giving Orlando the kind of finisher it needs. A more difficult test against the Philadelphia Union (and another young American drawing attention for his play in Brenden Aaronson) in a match where first in the group is on the line is the next challenge–and the next instance at MLS Is Back where an early conclusion being drawn will either be validated or walked back a bit.