Re-Ranking the Champions League's Last 16
The field for the UEFA Champions League's last 16 may be the same as it was on the surface when the knockout stage concluded in December, but plenty has transpired since to alter the calculus for what's to come.
The round-of-16 draw set the roadmap for the next step on the road to the May final in Istanbul, while a transfer window has come and gone, vital players have picked up poorly timed injuries and managers have been fired and replaced. On top of that, a number of matches have been relocated due to coronavirus restrictions, with select clubs not getting a true home leg amid the circumstances.
Our first ranking of the last 16 took place ahead of the draw, when the results from the group stage were still fresh and the matchups had yet to be determined. Now, knowing what we know and seeing what's taken place over the last two months, here's a new look at the remaining contenders for Europe's top prize and how they stack up against one another:
Sipa USA (3)
1. Bayern Munich
Previous ranking: 1 | Last-16 opponent: Lazio
Since the group stage concluded, Bayern fortified its lead atop the Bundesliga, won the FIFA Club World Cup and joined Barcelona's historic 2009 team as the only other one to win six trophies in a single cycle. Its play hasn't been perfect—it's been oddly susceptible to slow starts and being forced to rally, and it was knocked out of the DFB Pokal by a second-tier opponent—but it still has fewer losses (five) than trophies won (six) since Hansi Flick took over some 15 months ago, and Robert Lewandowski has more goals (29) than games played (28) this season. Bayern remains the team to beat.
2. Manchester City
Previous ranking: 3 | Last-16 opponent: Borussia Monchengladbach
Man City is unbeaten in 22 matches in all competitions since a Nov. 21 setback vs. Tottenham and has won its last 15 straight matches to set a new standard for top-flight English teams. All of this has occurred while dealing with the continued absence of Sergio Aguero and an injury to Kevin De Bruyne, who is unlikely to be fit for the first leg of the last 16. Pep Guardiola's side is a well-oiled machine right now, and while there's fair skepticism due to its inability to reach the semifinals and beyond despite its stacked squad in the past, there's also evidence to feel comfortable believing this season could be different.
3. Atlético Madrid
Previous ranking: 7 | Last-16 opponent: Chelsea
Atleti is sitting comfortably atop La Liga, but an array of positive coronavirus tests threatens to undermine the club's European efforts. João Felix, Thomas Lemar, Hector Herrera, Mario Hermoso and new signing Moussa Dembele are the latest to contract the virus at the club, which benefits from not playing its first leg vs. Chelsea until Feb. 23. With Luis Suárez in peak scoring form and Diego Simeone's side remaining stingy as ever defensively, it's still a good bet to progress over a Chelsea side still getting acclimated to its coaching change.
4. Juventus
Previous ranking: 6 | Last-16 opponent: Porto
Juve hasn't been particularly dynamic or daunting, but it benefits from a favorable draw and has gone unbeaten in its last seven to stay within touching distance of AC Milan in the Serie A race while also reaching the Coppa Italia final. You're going to side with Cristiano Ronaldo more often than not in the Champions League, but the supporting cast will need to shoulder more of the load if Juve is to avoid a second straight last-16 ouster.
5. PSG
Previous ranking: 5 | Last-16 opponent: Barcelona
Last season's runner-up has a new coach (Mauricio Pochettino, a 2018–19 runner-up with Tottenham) and a horde of injured players, making PSG an incredibly hard club to peg. Neymar's injury is the most impactful of the bunch, with PSG paying the price for trotting him out in the Coupe de France round of 64. He'll miss at least the first leg against Barcelona and possibly the second as well, putting more of the burden on Kylian Mbappé to keep PSG from suffering a similar fate as its predecessors (last season notwithstanding) on the European stage.
6. Liverpool
Previous ranking: 2 | Last-16 opponent: RB Leipzig
The wheels have begun to fall off for Liverpool, though that doesn't discount the club's potential entirely. Injury woes across the defense have finally proven to be a bit too much to handle, with the Reds falling into fourth in the Premier League and uncharacteristically losing their way at Anfield. The attack hasn't been picking up enough slack to fully compensate (that's what happens when key midfielders have to play defense and the press isn't as impactful), and with key league matches against Leicester and Merseyside rival Everton sandwiching the first leg vs. Leipzig, there's some real sink-or-swim feeling surrounding the club's next week.
7. Sevilla
Previous ranking: 13 | Last-16 opponent: Borussia Dortmund
No club has taken has big of a leap as Sevilla, which added former Atalanta captain Papu Gomez in the January transfer window and has clawed its way into contention in La Liga (while also holding a two-goal edge over Barcelona heading into their Copa del Rey second leg). Julen Lopetegui's side has only lost to Chelsea, Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid since the calendar hit November and has won its last eight games across all competitions–seven via clean sheet. It re-enters the competition in vastly greater form than its next opponent.
8. Chelsea
Previous ranking: 4 | Last-16 opponent: Atlético Madrid
Chelsea is a total wild card from here on out. On one hand, there's the existing base of a team that spent $300 million over the summer and has yet to get the best out of the gems of the class, Timo Werner and Kai Havertz. That potential is tantalizing. On the other hand, there's still an imbalanced squad, which is figuring things out on the fly after swapping out Frank Lampard for Thomas Tuchel on the bench. It doesn't help that its opponent is particularly adept at making life very hard for opposing attacks.
9. RB Leipzig
Previous ranking: 8 | Last-16 opponent: Liverpool
Not much has changed in terms of the big picture for RB Leipzig, which is still a very dangerous opponent for Liverpool, but still has a lack of consistent firepower and go-to scorer since Werner's departure to Chelsea. Emil Forsberg's injury puts him in doubt for the first leg vs. Liverpool, while new signing Dominik Szoboszlai has yet to feature for the club and doesn't appear close to doing so. Julian Nagelsmann and Jurgen Klopp are both facing different kinds of adversity on multiple levels, and it'll be fascinating to watch the two bright minds duel.
10. Barcelona
Previous ranking: 11 | Last-16 opponent: PSG
When we last saw Barcelona in the Champions League knockout stage, it was bowing out to Bayern Munich in an 8–2 quarterfinal humiliation. Since then (and even before), it's essentially been nothing but chaos, which makes the club's ability to remain in La Liga's title race actually quite impressive. Antoine Griezmann has recently shown the attacking form that made him one of the world's top talents at Atlético Madrid, while Lionel Messi has remained engaged and dynamic while everything regarding his contract details and his future swirls about. Neymar missing at least the first leg is a boon for Barça, whose performance here could dictate a lot about what happens to the club in the big picture moving forward.
11. Real Madrid
Previous ranking: 10 | Last-16 opponent: Atalanta
It's been another season of Zinedine Zidane on the hot seat, followed by a set of results that cools things a bit, followed by another eye-opening setback, all of which is compounded by key injuries. Real Madrid has a genuine problem with Sergio Ramos out following knee surgery to repair a meniscus, given how the club's fortunes are generally correlated with his presence. Another injury to Eden Hazard will keep him out of the first leg vs. a dangerous and explosive Atalanta side, against which things can snowball quite quickly.
12. Borussia Dortmund
Previous ranking: 9 | Last-16 opponent: Sevilla
Dortmund is in the dumps, losing three of its last four Bundesliga matches entering the weekend to tumble into sixth place in Germany's top flight. Forget about a deep run in this competition: Dortmund has to ensure it has a place in next year's. The potential remains there, on paper, for a side with so much young and game-breaking attacking talent, but handing the reins to Edin Terzic after ousting Lucien Favre as manager has not proven to be the elixir, and trying to break through against an in-form Sevilla team could wind up being a case of a poor matchup at the wrong time.
13. Atalanta
Previous ranking: 16 | Last-16 opponent: Real Madrid
Atalanta remains a high-wire act, and it still has the taste of last season's dramatic quarterfinal ouster at the hands of PSG in its mouth. It sold Gomez to Sevilla after his falling out with manager Gian Piero Gasperini, and it just snapped a three-game winless skid to oust Napoli and reach the Coppa Italia final vs. Juventus. It wouldn't be shocking at all to see Atalanta take it to Real Madrid, especially with Ramos out, but it'll have to be cognizant of being out-guiled by a veteran-laden side that would like to erase memories of last season's last-16 exit.
14. Lazio
Previous ranking: 12 | Last-16 opponent: Bayern Munich
If not for the opponent, Lazio would feature a little higher up, but it's drawn the worst possible hand. Six straight wins in Serie A entering a weekend showdown vs. Inter Milan has Lazio back in the top-four conversation in Italy, but it'll take a dynamite first-leg showing in Rome to make dethroning Bayern a possibility. If nothing else, the matchup features the top two finishers in the 2019–20 Golden Shoe–and two players continuing to show that the best can come after turning 30–with winner Ciro Immobile matching wits with Lewandowski.
15. Porto
Previous ranking: 14 | Last-16 opponent: Juventus
Porto sits second in Portugal's top flight and is the only remaining club in the competition not in Europe's traditional "big five" leagues. Despite posting five clean sheets in the group stage (it lost 3-1 to Man City but then went unscathed defensively), replicating that feels like a tall task. The Ronaldo-Pepe individual matchup will be one to watch, both for nostalgia between the two veteran countrymen and also because it could go a long way toward determining how close of a tie Porto can cause this to become.
16. Borussia Monchengladbach
Previous ranking: 15 | Last-16 opponent: Manchester City
Gladbach runs into the world's in-form team at the moment and has been wobbling since the end of the group stage, enduring a six-game winless stretch in December and tumbling into seventh in the Bundesliga. That the first leg against Man City is followed in succession by league games against RB Leipzig, Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen means manager Marco Rose has way more on his plate than just trying to go toe-to-toe with Guardiola.
