MLS Cup 2021 Scenarios: Revolution's Loss Opens Up the Possibilities

With the top overall seed out of the picture, Portland is in the driver's seat among the three teams left in contention to host the final.

MLS is down to its final four teams as it gets set to crown its 2021 champion, and with the top seeds in each conference both out of the running, there are now multiple roads leading to where MLS Cup will be played.

The finalist with the best regular-season record gets to host the title match, and that was going to be the record-setting, Supporters' Shield-winning New England Revolution—until it wasn't. The Revs' defeat to NYCFC in penalty kicks Tuesday night opened up multiple possibilities for the Dec. 11 final.

What MLS is left with is a pair of unlikely conference finals. Out West, the No. 4-seed Portland Timbers will host No. 7 Real Salt Lake. Portland handled No. 5 Minnesota United in the first round before ousting top-seeded Colorado on a dramatic, late goal from Larrys Mabiala to reach the league semifinal, while RSL knocked off both Seattle and Sporting Kansas City on the road—the former in penalty kicks after it didn't take a single shot in 120 minutes, the latter on a stoppage-time winner from Bobby Wood—to continue its storybook run. RSL snuck into the playoffs on Decision Day—buoyed by a missed PK call—and yet finds itself on the cusp of the final. Portland and RSL will play Saturday.

In the East, the second-seeded Philadelphia Union will host No. 4 NYCFC on Sunday, with both prevailing in penalty kicks in the most recent round. Philly edged the New York Red Bulls on the latest goal in league history—a 123rd-minute stunner by Jakob Glesnes—before blanking Nashville SC in the PK shootout, while NYCFC eliminated Atlanta United in the first round before ensuring that yet another Supporters' Shield holder would not go on to win MLS Cup (only one in the last 10 seasons has: Toronto FC in 2017). If NYCFC is to reach the final, it'll have to do so without the services of MLS Golden Boot winner Taty Castellanos, whose red card in extra time against the Revolution means he's suspended for the conference final.

So where does that leave MLS Cup? We could know as soon as Saturday. In the simplest scenario, if Portland wins, it'll be the finalist with the best regular-season mark and will host the title match. It has reached the final twice in the last six seasons but played on the road both times (winning in Columbus in 2015; losing in Atlanta in 2018).

RSL is the only one of the final four that cannot host the final, so a Salt Lake triumph on Saturday would give the Eastern Conference final additional incentive, with the winner guaranteed to play for the championship at home.

That leaves the permutations for potential MLS Cup final matchups as follows:

Portland vs. NYCFC: at Providence Park

Portland vs. Philadelphia: at Providence Park

Real Salt Lake vs. NYCFC: at Yankee Stadium

Real Salt Lake vs. Philadelphia: at Subaru Park