Champions League Knockout Stage Power Rankings: Assessing the Last 16

With the group stage done, the draw on the horizon and the knockout stage a couple of months away, who is looking most likely to win the Champions League title?

It may have taken one more day than initially planned, but the UEFA Champions League is down to its final 16 contenders for Europe’s top club prize.

Plenty of the usual suspects have advanced, but for the first time since 2003–04, the knockout stage will go on without Barcelona (one of four of the Super League dozen that failed to be good enough for the truly elite level, imagine that). Instead, group winners Manchester City, Liverpool, Ajax, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Manchester United, Lille and Juventus and runners-up PSG, Atlético Madrid, Sporting Lisbon, Inter Milan, Benfica, Villarreal, Salzburg and Chelsea will take part in Monday’s draw, which will determine the pairings for the round of 16.

Plenty can—and is likely to—change between the draw and the start of the round, which commences in mid-February. An entire January transfer window will open and shut, allowing clubs to bring in reinforcements that could alter their calculus. Just last season, Chelsea hired Thomas Tuchel to take charge as manager in late January, and, four weeks later, he was thrown into the Champions League cauldron with his new club, which he wound up guiding to the title.

That’s a rare extreme (except at Chelsea, where it has now happened twice), but it just underscores the point that where things are now might not mean so much when the first legs kick off in a couple of months. With injuries, recoveries, form fluctuation, hirings, firings and transfers, the field is anything but static.

But sizing up the contenders is still a practical exercise. It allow us to take a wider view of those who persevered through the group stage and how they stack up—and figure to stack up—against the remaining competition. Here’s how the last 16 are looking before the knockout rounds kick into high gear:

Imago Images (3)

1. Manchester City

The upside to being drawn in PSG’s group is that City is guaranteed to avoid the Parisian power in the round of 16. It’s not as if there aren’t potential threats still looming, and given that lesser-heralded clubs like Monaco, Tottenham and Lyon have been responsible for City's elimination in recent seasons, Pep Guardiola & Co. shouldn’t be taking anything for granted. But last season’s runner-up and the current Premier League leader should feel good about its position, its form and its prospects for the first knockout round. Despite its continued lack of a “true” striker, City averaged three goals a game in the group stage. There’s just as much of a likelihood as Guardiola being second-guessed for a rash choice deeper into the competition as there is City winning it, but the club’s quest for a first Champions League title is very much on. 

Potential last-16 opponents: Atlético Madrid, Sporting Lisbon, Inter Milan, Benfica, Salzburg, Villarreal

2. Bayern Munich

There are still proper questions to be asked of Bayern’s defense and whether it can withstand challenges from elite opponents, but there’s little else to query regarding Julian Nagelsmann’s side in this competition after a 6-0-0 group phase. Its utter dismantling of Barcelona on two occasions may have had more to say about its crisis-hit opponent, and there’s a clear tier of opponent Bayern will want to avoid this early in the competition. Joshua Kimmich’s immediate uncertainty over COVID-19 complications also looms as a wild card, but with Robert Lewandowski continuing to play at a Ballon d’Or-caliber level, the potential for a second title in three seasons remains strong.

Potential last-16 opponents: PSG, Atlético Madrid, Sporting Lisbon, Inter Milan, Chelsea, Salzburg, Villarreal

3. Liverpool

No contender will be hit as hard by the winter Africa Cup of Nations as Liverpool, which will lose Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mané for at least three weeks in January, if not more. They’ll be back in plenty of time for the resumption of the Champions League, but their departures threaten to disrupt a nice rhythm that Jürgen Klopp’s side has developed. A 6-0-0 run through an extremely difficult group was the most impressive feat of any club in the competition thus far, though.

Potential last-16 opponents: PSG, Sporting Lisbon, Inter Milan, Benfica, Salzburg, Villarreal

4. Ajax

Ajax joined Bayern and Liverpool as the only clubs to go perfect in the group stage, and three seasons after a selling spree threatened to make the club’s run to the Champions League semifinals seem like a thing of the distant past, Erik ten Hag’s side is very much for real once again. Whether its opposition—Sporting Lisbon, an injury-hit Borussia Dortmund and Besiktas—played a significant factor in its group success will be found out in short order, but with Sébastien Haller (competition-leading 10 goals) scoring for fun in his first Champions League foray, the Dutch power has to be taken seriously.  

Potential last-16 opponents: PSG, Atlético Madrid, Inter Milan, Chelsea, Benfica, Salzburg, Villarreal

5. Chelsea

Recency bias may lower Chelsea’s standing compared with the field, but make no mistake: If Chelsea is closer to full strength, it maintains an awfully good chance to repeat as champion. The problem is that its late stumble vs. Zenit in the group finale in St. Petersburg could prevent a return trip there for the May 28 final. It has the fewest potential foes in the round of 16, meaning a greater chance of winding up with a brutal draw vs. Bayern Munich. A N'Golo Kanté return to full fitness would raise the ceiling considerably.

Potential last-16 opponents: Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Ajax, Lille

6. PSG

Despite its splashy summer, it’s still hard to know what to make of PSG in terms of its title credentials. Part of the problem is the Whac-A-Mole of injuries the club has dealt with all season. It still hasn’t technically been at full strength, with Sergio Ramos constantly sidelined and Neymar in the midst of what could be a two-month absence. But the flip side is the depth that it acquired has largely rendered the absences inconsequential. Finishing second in the group opens up a world of difficult possibilities for a club that is very much Champions League title or bust, though, and it’ll ramp up the pressure immediately on Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappé & Co. to deliver. An early exit would almost certainly mean an instant ouster for Mauricio Pochettino, who has acknowledged as much.

Potential last-16 opponents: Liverpool, Ajax, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Manchester United, Juventus

7. Real Madrid

Carlo Ancelotti has Real Madrid firing once again after an infamous slip-up vs. Sheriff, and if it can avoid PSG and Chelsea in the draw, it should feel awfully good about its chances at reaching the quarterfinals. Karim Benzema’s injury, suffered over the weekend, does not seem serious, and Vinicius Junior’s rise as a more consistent scoring threat helps diversify the club’s attack. There must still be questions asked about whether its aging midfield can put up with the rigors of a hard-pressing side and whether its defense is resolute enough to keep out the Man City and Liverpool types, but as a winner of nine straight heading into a weekend derby vs. Atlético, things are looking up.

Potential last-16 opponents: PSG, Sporting Lisbon, Chelsea, Benfica, Salzburg

8. Inter Milan

The Italian champion has stemmed the tide after selling Achraf Hakimi (PSG) and Romelu Lukaku (Chelsea), and remained competitive both domestically and abroad. But as it showed in its group finale vs. Real Madrid, during which a first-place finish was on the line, it’s still a cut below, and Nicolò Barella’s red card will keep the influential midfielder out of the first leg of the round of 16, if not more, which further limits Inter’s potential.

Potential last-16 opponents: Manchester City, Liverpool, Ajax, Bayern Munich, Manchester United, Lille

Maurizio Borsari/Imago Images

9. Manchester United

It's hard to fully judge Man United now that it has moved on and hired Ralf Rangnick to oversee the squad for the rest of the season. It got through the group stage with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer at the wheel (and with Cristiano Ronaldo delivering an abundance of late-game heroics) and has but two matches with Rangnick at the helm under its belt so far. Its outlook in the competition is tied directly to how it adjusts to new management, Paul Pogba’s and Raphaël Varane’s return from injury, and whether the winter window will bring any reinforcements—or sales—that change the makeup of the squad.  

Potential last-16 opponents: PSG, Atlético Madrid, Sporting Lisbon, Inter Milan, Benfica, Salzburg

10. Atlético Madrid

Atléti limped through the group stage, but it’ll still be a side no group winner wants to draw for reasons that Porto can attest. Its outlook depends wholly on getting back to full strength, but even so, Diego Simeone’s side hasn’t gotten beyond the quarterfinals in five seasons, and it has remained overly reliant on an aging Luis Suárez for goals, with João Félix still not meeting the expectations that came with the fourth-highest transfer fee ever. 

Potential last-16 opponents: Manchester City, Ajax, Bayern Munich, Manchester United, Juventus, Lille

11. Juventus

Juve was given a lifeline in the competition when Chelsea shockingly drew Zenit on the final day of group play. That opened up the door for a first-place finish, which should, in theory, result in a more favorable path forward. Drawing PSG or Atlético Madrid would temper the optimistic vibes, though, especially for a club that remains seven points out of the top four in Italy and has hardly achieved the consistency that marked its first run under Max Allegri.

Potential last-16 opponents: PSG, Atlético Madrid, Sporting Lisbon, Benfica, Salzburg, Villarreal

12. Lille

Led by Canadian forward Jonathan David, Lille topped what was considered a wide-open group with Salzburg, Sevilla and Wolfsburg and appears to be hitting its competitive stride after struggling to start its Ligue 1 title defense. Going through as a group winner greatly improves the club’s chances at progression, but there must be concern about its ability to score after mustering just seven goals in six group games—three of which came in the finale.

Potential last-16 opponents: Atlético Madrid, Sporting Lisbon, Inter Milan, Chelsea, Benfica, Villarreal

13. Sporting Lisbon

Sporting impressed by pipping Dortmund to the second spot in their group, and it’s one of two sides in the Portuguese league that is still unbeaten (Porto, the other, failed to get out of its Champions League group). Presuming the in-demand Pedro Gonçalves is not sold this winter, it’ll have a fighting chance to knock off a more heralded power in the next round, but conceding nine goals in its two meetings vs. Ajax doesn’t bode well for its defense against top competition.

Potential last-16 opponents: Manchester City, Liverpool, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Manchester United, Juventus, Lille

14. Villarreal

After a blizzard in Bergamo, Italy, Villarreal's progression was delayed by a day, but Unai Emery's side ensured that it has good reason for not being able to defend its Europa League title, as it avoided a third-place group finish that would've knocked the Yellow Submarine back to the secondary competition's knockout rounds. Emery turning down Newcastle's overtures was a boon for the Spanish side, which has won as many matches in six Champions League games as it has in 15 league games (three). Emery is a bit of a knockout specialist (albeit largely on the Europa League level) and in Danjuma has a dangerous goal scorer to deputize against whichever group winner Villarreal faces.

Potential last-16 opponents: Manchester City, Liverpool, Ajax, Bayern Munich, Juventus, Lille

15. Benfica

Benfica’s likely claim to fame in this season’s Champions League will be finishing ahead of Barcelona and sending the woe-ridden club tumbling into the Europa League knockout stage. It was demolished in two meetings with Bayern Munich, is one of two sides (Atlético Madrid being the other) to go through with a negative goal differential and will be the underdog in every one of its possible matchups in the next round.

Potential last-16 opponents: Manchester City, Liverpool, Ajax, Real Madrid, Manchester United, Juventus, Lille

16. Salzburg

Salzburg’s immediate future likely depends on whether it’ll sell a breakout star in January for a third straight season. Following in Erling Haaland’s, Takumi Minamino’s and Dominik Szoboszlai’s footsteps may well be Karim Adeyemi, the 19-year-old German striker who reportedly has the likes of Liverpool, Borussia Dortmund, Barcelona and Manchester United ready to swoop. Salzburg claims it won't sell him until the summer at the earliest, and, if that’s the case, then it stands a greater chance at springing an upset, but regardless it’s going to be a tall task to reach the quarterfinals.

Potential last-16 opponents: Manchester City, Liverpool, Ajax, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Manchester United, Juventus.