A Tentative Guide to the Premier League’s Very Conditional Festive Fixtures

Despite calls for a league-wide pause and a resurgent spread of COVID-19 in Britain, the Premier League’s holiday slate will go on. Here are the key elements to monitor.

The festive season is approaching, and the Premier League, at least tentatively, has been cleared for takeoff.

The always-anticipated holiday slate makes for an annual winter tradition, and despite an escalating number of positive coronavirus tests and match postponements, the show must go on. Just how much of that show is able to be played remains to be seen—two matches have already been called off—but even an optimist's outlook, which has nary a single additional cancellation, will put a strain on every club.

For seven Premier League clubs (Arsenal, Tottenham, West Ham, Brentford, Chelsea, Liverpool, Leicester City), the festive fixtures are preceded by midweek League Cup quarterfinals. For the remaining 13, there are still three games apiece to be played between Boxing Day (Dec. 26) and Jan. 3. With some teams already stretched thin due to COVID-19-related absences, the holiday demand that is frequently the source material of managerial complaint even in normal times will surely become a focal point once again. In some corners, it already has, and for very valid reasons. Simply having 14 coronavirus-free players (one of which is a goalkeeper), which is the bar for whether a team can play, isn't exactly "enough" for a stretch like this.

“We play Wednesday, Sunday and now Tuesday, it's not possible—we don’t have the players. It can happen we might have another case or two so players will have to quarantine,” Liverpool manager Jürgen Klopp told Sky Sports over the weekend. “The 26th and the 28th—it's really not possible. We would prefer to play, but we need help with the fixtures. The big thing we all have to talk about is if we can carry on or not, but if we carry on we can't carry on like usual.”

As the omicron variant of the coronavirus continues its spread, the Premier League remains vulnerable to more player absences and, if it gets drastic enough, more cancellations. The league announced Monday that 16% of players are entirely unvaccinated (while 84% are on their oddly coined “vaccination journey,” meaning they've had at least one shot), and while it has encouraged vaccination among players and staff, there is no mandate.

“The health and wellbeing of all concerned remains our priority and the league will continue to monitor and reflect public health guidance, always proceeding with caution,” a Premier League statement read.

As of now, that guidance has led to the schedule being played out as planned. There are more caveats than ever to this season’s festive fixtures, though. Squad depth matters to an exponentially higher degree with player availability such a moving target, and every match sure feels like it is subject to change. In terms of the table, there’s a three-team title race that has emerged as most of the league nears the halfway point and an unsettled relegation scrap due to some clubs having multiple games in hand. Presuming (perhaps foolishly) that the holiday slate unfolds with limited interruption, here’s what you can brace for over the next couple of weeks: 

Han Yan/Xinhua/Imago Images

THE TOP-FOUR SHOWDOWNS

Arsenal vs. Man City (Jan. 1), Chelsea vs. Liverpool (Jan 2.)

First vs. fourth and second vs. third are on the docket—at least as it currently stands, as it could change by the time these matches come around. But for a slate that’s otherwise light on heavyweight fixtures, these at the turn of the new year are the pick of the lot.

Man City won the reverse fixture vs Arsenal in a landslide—5–0, to be exact—on Aug. 28, but Mikel Arteta’s side is much improved since, even if it is dealing with the fallout of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s having his captaincy stripped. The Gunners have outscored their last three opponents, 9–1, to jump into the top four and there’s cautious optimism in the red part of north London again. City, meanwhile, remains on another level and has found its groove, having won eight straight in the league to surge into first place, including the last two by a combined 11–0 score. But Jack Grealish and Phil Foden were left unused in the weekend rout of Newcastle, with their absences a suspected consequence of going out to a bar following the previous win over Leeds despite the resurgence of COVID-19 in the U.K. It’ll be a test of Arsenal’s top-four credentials and a road challenge for City as it looks to create more separation at the top.

Chelsea and Liverpool, meanwhile, played to a 1–1 draw in late August, and it’s unclear what shape their clubs will be in given their current and respective COVID-19 situations and the taxing nature of the matches that precede their showdown. Liverpool, entering the festive fixtures, boasts a league-low one defeat, though, while Chelsea enters having won just one of its last four (1-1-2). Both of their managers have expressed exasperation at the current situation, but both are also among the finest on the planet at preparing their clubs for match day. No matter the circumstances, it’s a must-watch with table-topping implications.

THE TOUGHEST HANDS

It’s a largely balanced slate across the board, but Liverpool may face the most difficulty. It certainly catches Leeds at the right time (though Andrew Robertson won't be available due to his red card vs. Spurs), but the Reds then go to Leicester and Chelsea in quick succession, knowing that the pressure is on to keep pace with a Man City side that it trails by three points entering Boxing Day—and with the expectation of losing key players to the Africa Cup of Nations, should it go on as planned, soon after the festive fixtures end.

Leicester doesn’t have it easy, either. After a midweek League Cup bout vs. Liverpool, the Foxes, who have been off since Dec. 12 due to positive COVID-19 tests, head to the Etihad for a Boxing Day bout vs. Man City and then two days later get Liverpool again. Closing with last-place Norwich is at least a consolation prize. 

Arsenal also has two difficult meetings after a palatable opener. Following a trip to Norwich, the Gunners host Wolves and Man City in what could be a defining stretch as it relates to the club’s aspirations of returning to the top four.

Lower down the table, Watford enters the holiday sprint having lost four straight, and it won’t get much easier. At Wolves and then home against West Ham and Tottenham gives the relegation-threatened Hornets three top-eight opponents (as the table is currently constructed).

[UPDATE: Liverpool-Leeds and Wolves-Watford have been postponed on account of COVID-19 case at Leeds and Watford.

"Watford continue to have an insufficient number of players to field a team after their game against Crystal Palace last Saturday was postponed following a COVID-19 outbreak," the Premier League wrote in a statement. "Due to players coming out of isolation, it is fully expected Watford will be available for their fixture on Tuesday 28 December, against West Ham United."

Leeds, meanwhile, said that it had five new positive cases within the first-team and staff.

"All of the cases we have experienced are asymptomatic which we believe is due to our high vaccine take-up," the club wrote in a statement. "The positive cases, combined with our well documented injury issues, means that we would not have enough recognized first-team players to meet the Premier League requirements for the fixture."]

MAN UNITED SURGE INCOMING?

The Red Devils have a golden opportunity ahead of them. Winners of three straight—two under interim manager Ralf Rangnick—United has been out of action since having games against Brentford and Brighton get postponed due to COVID-19. But it returns to action with an incredibly favorable run, with a match at rich-but-lowly Newcastle followed by home games against Burnley and Wolves. That’s two matches against relegation-threatened clubs and then a Wolves side that is stingy and has proven hard to break down but has an equally difficult time scoring goals. If there’s ever a time for United to restore its place in the top four and break away from the muddled middle of the pack—it’s five points off the pace with two games in hand—it’s now.