High Stakes, Oddities and How the USMNT Is Approaching a Decisive Qualifier it Can Lose By 5

Despite an enviable margin for error, the U.S. doesn’t plan on altering preparations for its qualifying finale in Costa Rica—not with a World Cup berth not yet fully in hand.

SAN JOSÉ, Costa Rica — Following four goals and 45 minutes of dominance that left the Orlando crowd buzzing and the American men on the threshold of the World Cup, DeAndre Yedlin and Tim Weah, who were suspended for last Sunday’s qualifier against Panama, made their way from a suite down to the Exploria Stadium locker room.

“We walked into the locker room at halftime, and it was dead in there,” Yedlin said.

“It was quiet,” Weah interjected.

“It felt like a funeral,” Yedlin exclaimed.

This clearly isn’t a U.S. national team that’s going to exhale or exult before the job is done. And while Yedlin and Weah could laugh about Sunday’s dour scene a couple days later at their hotel outside the Costa Rican capital, the big-picture message was obvious. A win over Panama wasn’t guaranteed despite Sunday’s 4–0 halftime advantage, and a ticket to the Qatar World Cup still isn’t secure after that 5–1 triumph. The Americans’ prospects are excellent. All the U.S. (7-2-4) has to do is avoid losing to Costa Rica (6-3-4) by six goals in the Concacaf qualifying finale at the Estadio Nacional on Wednesday night.

Moises Castillo/AP

But then again, all they had to do in late 2017 was earn a draw at last-place Trinidad & Tobago. Yedlin was part of that ill-fated squad, and he emphasized here that the traumatic lesson learned on that infamous night in Couva has had four-plus years to sink in.

“It’s not over ’til it’s over. So that’s really been the main approach going into this last game, is we can’t be too complacent. We can’t be too relaxed,” Yedlin said. “Obviously we’re in a good situation, and we know that. But I think going into that Trinidad game we thought we were in a good situation as well. It’s just about, again, focusing on what we need to do to make sure that when you guys write that headline, it says the U.S. is going to the World Cup. And we’re not going to be satisfied until that happens.”

The U.S. has a history of encountering the odd and unfortunate here in Costa Rica. There were the coins and batteries raining from the stands and the shaking locker room ceiling at the Estadio Saprissa (Los Ticos’ former home). There was the phantom handball call on former defender and current coach Gregg Berhalter that led to a controversial defeat in 2000. And there was that surreal scene in 2016, when the U.S. was forced to train at a dairy factory before imploding in Jurgen Klinsmann’s final game in charge. The Americans have encountered obstacle after obstacle in the land of Pura Vida. 

Moises Castillo/AP

Stack those challenges on top of what’s been, traditionally, a very strong Ticos side, and you get a U.S. record that’s even worse here than it has been in Mexico. The Americans are a miserable 0-9-2 all-time in Costa Rica. And the most recent draw came back in 1992. Wonder how an ambitious young team might motivate itself ahead of a game it can afford to lose by five? With a history like that. For those looking back, the ghosts and scars of Couva are enough. For those looking forward—for those who believe in setting loftier standards and Berhalter’s mission to “change the way the world views American soccer”—Wednesday represents a tantalizing chance to end the Costa Rican hex.

The odds of a six-goal defeat at the sold-out Estadio Nacional are almost immeasurably small (if it somehow happens, the U.S. will head to a one-game intercontinental playoff in June). But they’re not zero. 

“Until you’re officially qualified, you’re not there, and anything can happen,” Berhalter said Tuesday.

So the best way to minimize the likelihood of Concacaf chaos, or of one of those odd and unfortunate Costa Rican incidents, is to refuse to deviate from the norm. Don’t complicate matters, alter habits or add to the number of potential variables. Don’t give that minuscule percentage any oxygen. Don’t overthink things or change who you are. This U.S. squad has developed a culture of aiming high. Although many thought Berhalter might rest key players last week in the altitude at the Estadio Azteca, he fielded his strongest lineup available and went for the win. The U.S. fell short, but the point earned that evening was key to the favorable position the Americans now enjoy. They’re going to stick to that approach in San José.

Moises Castillo/AP

“It’s about our team trying to do things that other teams haven’t been able to do, and that’s why we embraced the challenge in Azteca and that’s why we’re going to embrace the challenge [Wednesday]—because we’re hungry,” Berhalter said. “We want to do things, and when you can start checking off these things—one team has to be the team that does it first, right? So why not this group of guys?

“We’re playing for a win, and I think that’s the mentality you need,” he added. “It would be strange now, after 13 [qualifying] rounds, to differ in your last game. We know we’re 90 minutes away from a potential berth in the World Cup, but now it’s not time to take your foot off the gas.”

In a twist, Costa Rica might be the side more incentivized to play it safe. Guaranteed to finish at least fourth in the Octagonal, Los Ticos are almost surely heading to the June World Cup playoff against New Zealand or Solomon Islands. Knowing his World Cup fate likely rests on those 90 minutes, coach Luis Fernando Suárez has every incentive to rest some or all of the nine players who are one yellow card away from a playoff suspension. Those in danger include star forward Joel Campbell and veterans like Francisco Calvo, Celso Borges, Bryan Ruiz, Johan Venegas and Bryan Oviedo.

ZUMA Wire/Imago Images

It seems like the only event that might make the Americans really sweat is an early red card.

“We’ve been clever up to this point,” Adams said in response to that possibility. “The group has handled many tricky situations very well. We’ve learned a lot throughout [qualifying] how the refs are going to deal with certain situations and what they’re going to call, what they’re not going to call, what they’re looking for.”

But a yellow or two could do a lot more damage to Costa Rica’s World Cup hopes. Berhalter said Tuesday that his staff has scouted and analyzed every Tico player and is prepared for whatever Suárez decides.

This Octagonal finale is a bit of a strange game with unique demands, as well as stakes that could range from minimal to historic. On some level, it requires some unfamiliar mental gymnastics from both the players and managers. It’s the end of a long, difficult road, during which the U.S. has had to learn about qualifying on the fly while dealing with the frequent absence of first-choice players (Weston McKennie, Sergiño Dest and Brenden Aaronson are all missing this climactic window). On Sunday in Orlando, the Americans won convincingly despite a stomach bug that tore through the group. In San José, they’ll have to navigate an assignment none have ever faced: lose by five or fewer and earn a long-awaited, redemptive trip to Qatar.

The U.S. hasn’t sealed any of its six modern-era, non-hosting World Cup qualifications with anything less than a win. And so this team feels the easiest way to approach Costa Rica is to simply try and extend that streak.

“We have a chance to create history here,” Yedlin said. “No U.S. team has ever won a qualifying game in Costa Rica. We have the chance to make history from that sense and then, hopefully, when we’re done doing that, then hopefully we’ll be qualified for the World Cup.

“It’s Concacaf, so I think everybody knows what that entails,” he added knowingly. “But I think if we stick to our plan, stick to our game, stick to the plan the coaches have set out for us, then we’ll be in good hands.”