USMNT 2022 World Cup Roster Projection 1.0: The Locks and Likelihoods for Qatar

Now that the U.S. men have qualified for the 2022 World Cup, who will be representing the nation in its return to the competition? It won’t be easy to narrow the pool.

The U.S. men’s national team is a World Cup–caliber team once again, having polished off its qualification for this year’s competition in Qatar. To get there, manager Gregg Berhalter turned to an expanded player pool, and for good reason. This qualification slog was unlike any other in modern USMNT history.

Playing over the course of a compressed seven-month span due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. squeezed in 14 matches across five windows, four of which featured three matches in seven days. Couple that travel and match demand with the workload these players are already taking on at their clubs and the COVID-19 curveballs that have complicated roster and logistical planning, and it’s no wonder that Berhalter had to use 38 players over the course of qualifying. It’s the second-most ever used in a U.S. qualification cycle, with 43 called upon in the 2010 cycle—but that encompassed 18 matches and multiple rounds against varying levels of competition. 

Now, after cultivating his player pool across friendlies, the Concacaf Nations League, Gold Cup and qualifying, and growing the number of reliable options, Berhalter faces the opposite task: Cut the pool down to a hard 23. Unless FIFA adopts roster expansion like UEFA did for last summer’s Euros, when teams were granted a 26-player allotment (and it’s reportedly up for discussion), Berhalter will need to make some incredibly difficult choices. Players who may have come up with key moments on the qualifying road could wind up spectators. Injuries, as always, will play a factor as well. The U.S. has never had what most would consider its true ‘A’ team on the field all at once under Berhalter in any competition or friendly. That’s not to say it can’t happen at the World Cup, but the odds are not in the U.S.’s favor.

So what might a U.S. World Cup squad look like? There are many variables that could alter the equation over the next eight months. There always tend to be late wild cards that throw a wrench in planning as well. Ahead of the 2010 World Cup, Hérculez Gómez and Edson Buddle made themselves undroppable with their scoring form. Ahead of the 2014 World Cup, Bayern Munich rising talent Julian Green picked the U.S. over Germany, wound up on Jurgen Klinsmann’s final roster and is still the trivia answer to the question: “Who scored the USMNT’s most recent goal at a World Cup?” 

It’s not always fair to those who did the heavy lifting in qualifying, but fairness has little to do with a manager’s preference for the players he thinks can lift his team to its greatest heights on the biggest stage. As much as Berhalter claims his roster selections are what the U.S. looks like at a given time, he has also been adamant about building a culture and a brotherhood, so perhaps the wild-card factor won’t be as prevalent this time around.

Nevertheless, the U.S.’s roster picture over the next eight months is going to be a target of scrutiny and speculation. Injury reports, club form, club transfers and international allegiances all will play a part in Berhalter’s whittling down the pool to a final roster and a set of alternates. Here’s our best depiction of what that looks like as of now, with qualification fresh on the mind: 

Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire/Imago Images

THE LOCKS

Zack Steffen (Manchester City), Matt Turner (New England Revolution), Sergiño Dest (Barcelona), Antonee Robinson (Fulham), Walker Zimmerman (Nashville SC), Tyler Adams (RB Leipzig), Yunus Musah (Valencia), Weston McKennie (Juventus), Kellyn Acosta (LAFC), Gio Reyna (Borussia Dortmund), Christian Pulisic (Chelsea), Tim Weah (Lille), Brenden Aaronson (Salzburg)

Barring injury, these 13 are on the plane. Steffen and Turner will both likely be Premier League backups at the time of the World Cup, which may continue to be a cause of consternation (for supporters, anyway), but that hasn’t stopped Steffen from being a regular for the national team when healthy. Turner will have an adjustment to make after his summer transfer to Arsenal, but he has been a reliable shot-stopper for the U.S. when given a chance. That shouldn’t change.

In front of them, Dest and Robinson are the first-choice fullbacks, full stop. They give the U.S. dynamic options pushing forward from either side, and while Dest’s defending remains a work in progress, he had been coming on strong with Barcelona before a hamstring injury kept him from the final qualifying window. 

Zimmerman, the two-time reigning MLS Defender of the Year, is, subjectively, the only sure thing at the moment in central defense. Fluctuating form, injuries and club statuses are all impacting others in the pool to the point that it’s hard to say unequivocally that they’re going to Qatar.

The preferred midfield trio of Adams, McKennie and Musah should be penciled into the XI for the U.S.’s World Cup opener, while Acosta has quietly been one of Berhalter’s most reliable players for a really long time, having played in 28 of the U.S.’s last 29 matches dating back to Dec. 2020. His ability to deliver on set pieces while providing depth at multiple positions—and a mastery of the dark arts—make him an invaluable asset.

The U.S. is stocked with first-choice wing options as well, with Pulisic, Reyna, Weah and Aaronson all proving trustworthy in big spots and all versatile enough to adapt to more central roles if need be. They have either the temperament or pedigree (or both) to deliver with the lights at their brightest.

THE LIKELIHOODS

Ethan Horvath (Nottingham Forest), Reggie Cannon (Boavista), DeAndre Yedlin (Inter Miami), Miles Robinson (Atlanta United), Aaron Long (New York Red Bulls), Chris Richards (Hoffenheim, on loan from Bayern Munich), Luca de la Torre (Heracles), Cristian Roldan (Seattle Sounders), Gianluca Busio (Venezia), Ricardo Pepi (Augsburg), Jesús Ferreira (FC Dallas), Paul Arriola (FC Dallas), Jordan Morris (Seattle Sounders)

The remaining tickets are most likely to come from this group. The third goalkeeper place is currently Horvath’s spot to lose, but that could change and tilt back toward Sean Johnson with a flux in playing time. It wasn’t until recently that Horvath got regular minutes at Nottingham Forest (the irony, of course, being that the two he’s behind in the pecking order aren’t likely to have regular minutes at all, but nobody said the rules were the same for everyone). Cannon and Yedlin are next up at right back (unless COVID-19 and suspension keep them out, like they did this week), while Robinson, Long and Richards represent the next men up on the fluctuating center back depth chart.

De la Torre is making it awfully difficult for Berhalter to omit him going forward. He may be a late addition to the nucleus, but his performances have been measured and steady, and he has the look of a player who belongs. His strong season in the Netherlands has played to his benefit, and it looks like he’s jumped both Roldan and Busio in the midfield.

As for the attacking options, Pepi has tailed off considerably since helping rescue the U.S.’s qualifying campaign in the fall. He hasn’t scored for club or country since his October double vs. Jamaica, and his $20 million move to Augsburg has not been seamless. There’s time for him to rediscover his scoring touch, but Berhalter himself has said he’s “concerned” about his drop in scoring rate. Morris, Ferreira and Arriola have each proven their value to Berhalter with the latter two—now FC Dallas teammates—scoring in the penultimate qualifier vs. Panama.

These 13 plus the aforementioned 13 make for 26 players. That means, barring squad expansion, there already isn’t room for three of them—and that’s not taking into account who else remains in frame and could play their way up the ladder. Such as...

ON THE RADAR

Sean Johnson (NYCFC), Shaq Moore (Tenerife), Joe Scally (Borussia Mönchengladbach), Bryan Reynolds (Kortrijk, on loan from Roma), Brooks Lennon (Atlanta United), John Brooks (Wolfsburg), Justin Che (Hoffenheim), Mark McKenzie (Genk), Erik Palmer-Brown (Troyes), George Bello (Arminia Bielefeld), Sam Vines (Antwerp), James Sands (Rangers), Sebastian Lletget (New England Revolution), Josh Sargent (Norwich City), Matthew Hoppe (Mallorca), Jordan Pefok (Young Boys), Daryl Dike (West Brom), Gyasi Zardes (Columbus Crew)

There are cases to be made for so many players beyond those that ultimately get called, and this group is proof of that. As of last Sept. 1, you would have put Brooks’s name in a World Cup starting XI in ink. Then he had a terrible opening qualifying window and an uneven season with Wolfsburg. He hasn’t returned to the U.S. since September, but Berhalter insists he’s not persona non grata. Brooks, to his credit, has owned his situation and pledges to do what it takes to come back. A forthcoming club move this summer will play a big part in determining how quickly—if at all—he can rise back up the center back depth chart. 

He’s hardly alone in knocking on the door. Depth and versatility are everything at a competition with limited rosters, and Scally’s ability to play both fullback spots works to his benefit. Moore’s abrupt arrival for Sunday’s Panama game was followed by a strong showing, which has to increase his profile too.

You get the sense that Berhalter wants Sargent to be the guy to lead the forward line, but outside of a two-goal performance at Norwich City, he’s yet to show he has what it takes consistently enough. Being a part of attack-challenged, relegation-threatened clubs for the vast majority of his pro career hasn’t helped a player whose work rate is consistently praised.

Pefok, despite leading the Swiss league in goals and having a knack for getting on the end of set pieces, may have seen his World Cup hopes veer off course quite like his blown opportunity vs. Mexico at Estadio Azteca. Dike and Hoppe need to be healthy, play and score goals regularly for their clubs before getting back into the mix on any more realistic level.

Then there’s Zardes, a longtime Berhalter favorite and trusted striker whose inclusion on the final squad might give USMNT Twitter a collective aneurysm, but whose club form hasn’t merited it just yet this year.

THE WILD CARDS

Gabriel Slonina (Chicago Fire), DeJuan Jones (New England Revolution), Jonathan Gómez (Real Sociedad), Eryk Williamson (Portland Timbers), Jozy Altidore (New England Revolution), Folarin Balogun (Middlesbrough, on loan from Arsenal)

Let’s get nuts. Given the lack of reliable center forwards, is there a way back for Altidore, the 32-year-old World Cup veteran who was called into Berhalter’s January camp in 2021 but hasn’t been back since? There’s something to be said for World Cup experience, and few in the current U.S. picture have it. If he gets a look at June’s Concacaf Nations League, then you can consider that door to remain cracked open.

His Revolution teammate, Jones, is a dynamic left back who was called into the first part of January camp this year before departing ahead of the qualifying matches. There’s not a lot of depth behind Antonee Robinson, so there could be an opportunity if another surge on the club level happens. As for Williamson, he was just carving out his role in the national team’s midfield when he tore his ACL soon after helping the U.S. win the Gold Cup. He just returned to action for the Timbers, and he has time to build his form back up to where it was.

Then there are the dual-nationals. Slonina, 17, has been part of qualifying as a third goalkeeper and is a prime candidate to be the U.S.’s goalkeeper of the future (as long as he sticks with the U.S. and does not opt for Poland). Gómez, 18, made the jump to Real Sociedad from Louisville City in the USL and has Mexican eligibility. It would not be in line with Berhalter’s track record to offer a World Cup roster spot as a bargaining chip to a dual-national, but locking down another potential left back of the future would have value.

Finally, there’s Balogun, a 20-year-old, New York–born England youth international who would need to file for a FIFA one-time switch to represent the U.S. He’s a former Arsenal academy teammate of Musah, has the age and quality profile to match the nucleus of this team and could be the missing piece at striker that makes the U.S. even more prolific in the final third. Right now there’s no indication he’s considering a switch. He scored for England in U-21 Euro qualifying as recently as last week. But might a fast track to playing at a World Cup—something that’s not realistic for him with Gareth Southgate’s Three Lions—influence his thinking? And would Berhalter entertain recruiting a relative outsider to his close-knit unit this close to the competition? There are roughly eight months to find out.