Possible Groups of Death, USMNT’s Worst-Case Scenario Add Intrigue to World Cup Draw

The field for soccer’s biggest stage in Qatar is (nearly) complete, and there are plenty of intriguing and frightening directions in which Friday’s draw could go.

Now that the World Cup draw pots are set, the descending hours before the official draw is where the fun truly lies. The fact that it is just a draw out of a hat (or bucket) makes it more fun than a mock draft or trade deadline plug-and-play simply because it feels more tangible. There are no team’s needs or front-office politics to consider. This is literally the luck of the draw. 

The group of death iterations seem endless, especially with seven of the eight Pot 1 nations looking this formidable. And the fact that there are three teams not yet known, due to the remaining playoffs to be played in June, adds extra intrigue to the mix. Not only are we waiting on two intercontinental playoffs, but Wales (ranked 19th in the world) could very well emerge from the remaining European playoff and will still come out of Pot 4, anyway.

Of course, all of this speculation comes to an end at Friday around 12 p.m. ET when the draw takes place. But for now while we still can, let’s expect the worst. 

IMAGO/ANP

Below are the official pots ahead of Friday’s draw, along with the nations’ corresponding FIFA world ranking:

Pot 1: Qatar (No. 51), Brazil (1), Belgium (2), France (3), Argentina (4), England (5), Spain (7), Portugal (8)

Pot 2: Mexico (9), Netherlands (10), Denmark (11), Germany (12), Uruguay (13), Switzerland (14), USA (15), Croatia (16)

Pot 3: Senegal (20), Iran (21), Japan (23), Morocco (24), Serbia (25), Poland (26), Korea Republic (29), Tunisia (35)

Pot 4: Cameroon (37), Canada (38), Ecuador (46), Saudi Arabia (49), Ghana (60), CONMEBOL-AFC playoff winner (Peru vs. UAE/Australia), Concacaf-Oceania playoff winner (Costa Rica vs. New Zealand), European playoff winner (Wales vs. Ukraine/Scotland)

The Ultimate Group of Death

Brazil, Germany, Serbia, Canada

Unless Germany is drawn into Qatar’s group, the Pot 1 team that draws Germany will most likely be the scariest group. The Netherlands could also fill in just as well, but Germany as the 2014 World Cup champion coming off its ’18 group-stage disappointment is simply too scary to admit. But if that Pot 1 nation is Brazil or Argentina, then that sets the table for a potential Serbia draw (since two European teams, but not three, are allowed to be drawn into the same group) out of Pot 3, in which Serbia appears to be the most intimidating matchup along with African Cup of Nations champion Senegal. You could also make the case that Serbia seems to be the key to group of death scenarios, despite making it out of the World Cup group stage only once in four tries since Yugoslavia was dissolved as a nation. After all, Serbia did go undefeated in World Cup qualifying and won its group over Portugal. But at the World Cup, it won’t have the intimidation factor that is home games at Red Star Stadium. Still, no one wants to draw Serbia coming out of Pot 3. 

The Alternate Group of Death

France, Germany, Senegal, Canada

It would not be fun to be fans of any of these teams in this group. Let’s remember: We’re talking about the last two World Cup champions, the current African champion and the team that topped the table in 14 games of Concacaf qualifying. That’s a lot of anxiety in the seven-month wait between the draw and the start of the World Cup. France will be afraid of an epic letdown after 2018 and Germany will be counted on to avenge its ’18 shame, while Senegal and Canada have the look of teams who won’t back down against anyone after their regional success in ’22. While the ultimate group of death appears to be a nightmare situation, this one feels to have more potential for chaos given the teams and what they have to prove. 

The Slightly Less Scary But Still Deathly Group

Belgium, USA/Mexico, Senegal, Wales 

We’ve seen worse (remember Germany, Portugal, USA, Ghana in 2014?), but this group still has the potential to be frightening. Really, you can sub in any Pot 1 nation besides Qatar, as long as the U.S., Mexico, Germany or Netherlands fills that second spot. With those four teams from Pot 2, and anyone but Qatar in Pot 1, any setup with Senegal could still form a formidable group that has the potential to be just as difficult as 2018’s toughest group on paper (Sweden, Mexico, South Korea, Germany). We can only hope that it replicates the chaos of that group as well, and adding Wales (if it wins the European playoff in June) gives it an edge filled by Murphy’s Law: Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong. 

The Top-Ranked Group

Brazil, Mexico, Senegal, Saudi Arabia

This group takes the highest-ranked nations, according to the FIFA world ranking, in each pot and places them together. Brazil jumped Belgium to become the top-ranked team in the world in the latest rankings, while Mexico just missed out on a Pot 1 spot by finishing in ninth, one behind Portugal. Senegal is the top-ranked team in Pot 3 after its exhilarating penalty-kick shootout win over Egypt on Tuesday. And when it comes to Pot 4, the top-ranked team in Cameroon would not be allowed into the group due to the presence of another African nation. The same would go for Canada (since Mexico comes from Pot 2) and as well as Ecuador (since Brazil already represents South America). That leaves us with No. 49 Saudi Arabia filling out the group. Regardless, the fight for the two spots in the knockout spots out of this group would be fascinating to watch. 

The Group of Potential Chaos

England, USA, Poland, Ghana

The tradition of the group of potential chaos takes its purest form in 2014, when Italy and England failed to advance to the knockout stages while Costa Rica and Uruguay advanced. It wouldn’t necessarily be a stunner if any combination of these two teams advanced to the knockout stages. And while it would be most surprising to see England potentially miss out on the knockout stages in this scenario, it wouldn’t be out of the question considering England’s track record under pressure at the World Cup. This group would also follow through on the seemingly inevitable pairing that is the United States and Ghana, which would add more fuel to the hilarious, social-media-driven prophecy linking the two teams in World Cup eternity.

USMNT Best-Case Scenario

Qatar, USA, Tunisia, Ecuador/Scotland 

Everyone’s best-case scenario starts out with being drawn into Qatar’s group. That would already be the dream draw for the United States. Meanwhile, Tunisia appears to be the weakest team in Pot 3, and not just by FIFA ranking. The North African side was unimpressive in World Cup qualifying, sneaking past Mali by an aggregate score of 1–0 in the qualifying playoff last week, and has never made it past the World Cup group stage. However, being drawn into Qatar’s group also narrows the field in Pot 4. The U.S. already can’t be drawn with Canada, and it cannot be drawn with Saudi Arabia in this case due to a shared confederation with Qatar. With the yet-to-be-determined playoffs throwing so much uncertainty into the draw, the only other teams that can be placed in this scenario is Ecuador or the European playoff winner. And if that European winner is Scotland, then that would likely be the best possible situation.

USMNT Worst-Case Scenarios

France/Brazil, USA, Senegal, Wales 

France/Brazil, USA, Serbia, Ghana 

We can keep going on and on with the worst-case scenarios for the USMNT, but that would be cruel. Outside of being placed in Qatar’s group, nothing looks peachy in terms of a Pot 1 opponent. But the U.S.’s chances of reaching the knockout stages will really come down to that Pot 3 team. Luckily for them, the Americans cannot draw Canada, but drawing Ghana wouldn’t be too lucky, either. Meanwhile, the European playoff winner could very well be Gareth Bale’s Wales. The team is ranked 18th in the FIFA world rankings, which would have seen it placed in Pot 2 or 3 if it qualified this week, yet it sits in Pot 4 because the European playoff was delayed until June due to the war in Ukraine. We’ll just leave the USMNT potential group of death scenarios at two, but feel free to have fun with it before it becomes a reality (just kidding … maybe). 

The Groups of Yawn

Qatar, Switzerland, Tunisia, Costa Rica/New Zealand

Qatar, Croatia, Morocco, Ecuador

It’s obvious that the most boring group on paper (or envied, depending on if you’re a casual fan or a national team) should have Qatar as the Pot 1 representative. It’s also obvious that every single nation in Pots 2–4 will be wishing upon shooting stars Thursday night, hoping to be placed in Qatar’s group come Friday. However, it’s often these groups that provide for the most chaos. Regardless of who the Pot 2 team is in Qatar’s group, it will almost definitely be the favorite to win the group. Meanwhile, just about any team from Pot 4 (outside of other Asian confederation teams that cannot share a group with Qatar) can be placed in this group without changing the melatonin factor.