The Premier League’s Frustrating, Infuriating Fourth-Place Race

England’s last ticket to next season’s Champions League is realistically down to three very flawed and inconsistent clubs seeking to return to the elite tier.

With the top three teams in the Premier League table all but solidified, the charge for the final spot in Europe’s most elite club competition is heating up. But as Manchester United and Arsenal meet this weekend in a clash of titans vying for a place in the Champions League with five weeks to go, the race looks a little more like a sluggish running between three ugly ducklings.

United, Arsenal and Tottenham, all clubs with obscene wage bills and little to show for it in recent years, are the chief contenders for fourth place in the Premier League table. The three squads each have their own unique flaws that have been exposed by recent form.

Manchester United’s issues perhaps run the deepest of these teams vying for that fourth spot. Last year’s second-place league finish provided promise of a potential title charge in 2021–22. The arrival of young forward Jadon Sancho and homecoming of superstar Cristiano Ronaldo compounded that. But the volume of talent hasn’t led to success on the pitch. A 4–1 loss to Watford in November—the team’s fourth in five league matches—and manager Ole Gunnar Solskjær was gone. United would have to appoint its sixth manager of the last decade in interim manager Ralf Rangnick.

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A disconnect between club executives’ personnel decisions and the team the manager would put on the pitch was apparent. From Sancho to Fred to Donny van de Beek to Aaron Wan-Bissaka, seemingly brilliant individual talents had been brought into a team that couldn’t employ them properly. When Rangnick was hired as interim manager for the rest of the season, it appeared to be another confounding decision that exacerbated the gulf between what Manchester United wanted to be and what it really was. Why bring in a manager whose highly technical defensive style takes time to implement (and doesn’t fit with the current squad) for a six-month tenure?

To Rangnick’s credit, he has done all he could to turn the season around for United. In his first 13 league matches as manager, he lost just one. But all was not well. Inconsistent finishing led to draws against Newcastle, Burnley, Watford and Southampton. Then recent matchups with league leaders Manchester City and Liverpool showed just how far the Red Devils are from being a legitimate contender.

Against the top two teams in England (and perhaps the world), United lost by a combined score of 8–1 and was outcreated by 4.3 expected goals (xG) to 0.6. In other words, it wasn’t close to being close, and the losses displayed many of the problems that had been hidden by the talent in the squad. Harkening back to a long playing and managerial career in Germany, Rangnick often employs “gegenpressing,” an aggressive counter-press system that requires both positional discipline and constant activity. Yet United is in the bottom five in the league in both pressures and tackles in the attacking third of the field. Against Liverpool and City, the two team’s clinical attacks easily shredded a United press that is neither organized nor energetic.

Somehow, despite these issues (and an xG differential on the season that is just above 0), Manchester United finds itself in fifth, three points back of Tottenham and Arsenal.

Mikel Arteta’s turnaround at the Emirates appeared to be reaching full gear by early March. After finishing outside the top four for five seasons in a row—the longest such streak since the early 1980s—the Gunners were on a searing run of form. All the problems that plagued seasons past (shot creation, defensive stability, an overall identity) seemed to be alleviated. The club had offloaded captain Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to Barcelona in February, a move that was unpopular at the time but proved crucial to allowing the young attacking core of Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard to find its footing. With 11 matches to play, Arsenal was in the driver’s seat of the top-four race, and its form suggested it wouldn’t relent that position.

But goalscoring and shot stopping are fickle beasts, and form in two of the sport’s hardest tasks comes and goes quicker than managers at Old Trafford. An understandable loss to Liverpool and a win at Aston Villa were followed by a loss to a good Crystal Palace side, then an abysmal loss to Brighton at the Emirates and another at Southampton. In the six matches following March 13’s dominant 2–0 win vs. Leicester City, Arsenal outcreated opponents 6.4 xG to 3.9. It was outscored 8–2 and picked up just three points.

Suddenly, the cushion in the top-four race had evaporated, and the confidence of the team had disappeared. Arsenal hadn’t quite regressed to the team that lost its first three matches by a combined 9–0, but the results also weren’t that of a team destined to play in the Champions League. The form of captain Alexander Lacazette was emblematic of the team’s issues. The French striker has scored just one league goal in 2022 (a penalty vs. Leicester) on 3.7 xG.

Finishing can often be chalked up to just luck. There absolutely is an aspect of fortune that is out of a team’s control. Wednesday’s result at Stamford Bridge proved just that. The Gunners put four past Chelsea in a game they deserved to win from start to finish, the clinical finishing a stark contrast to what’s been displayed for the better part of the last two months.

The key moving forward is at the striker position. Eddie Nketiah scored twice in the 4–2 win against Chelsea and had several other solid chances in place of Lacazette. Perhaps Arsenal needed just one match and an in-form front man to open the floodgates (Manchester United’s leaky back line could help). But it’s yet to be seen whether this team can put together a consistent run of wins it’ll need to finish in the top four.

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Inconsistencies also continue to plague Arsenal’s North London compatriots. Antonio Conte’s Tottenham, currently clinging on to that fourth spot, has been the epitome of inconsistency among these top clubs. It’s been a slow process building Spurs into a traditional Conte side. The scars left by the failure of the Nuno Espírito Santo tenure and the tumult of José Mourinho’s reign have gradually healed. But Tottenham can’t seem to shake that Spursiness that has permeated the club for years. A massive, tide-changing win against Manchester City at the Etihad? Of course it’s followed by a loss to relegation-bound Burnley. A resounding 4–0 victory at Leeds wouldn’t be complete if an FA Cup loss to Championship side Middlesbrough didn’t succeed it.

But a run of five wins in six matches in March and April lofted Tottenham into fourth and made it the favorite to claim that spot. Conte appeared to have found his coveted right wingback in Matt Doherty, who had overcome a brutal start to his time with the club. Spurs were scoring goals at will—new addition Dejan Kulusevski had scored three and assisted six in just nine matches, while Harry Kane and Son Heung-min’s partnership was absolutely flying. So in true Tottenham fashion, Conte & Co. were dominated at home by Brighton last week. What should’ve been an opportunity to stake their claim for the Champions League spot went awry.

Spurs have more than enough talent to take hold of the No. 4 spot. Kulusevski appears to have been the missing piece in what is now a ferocious front three. Through 12 appearances, he has more goal-creating actions per 90 minutes than any player in the Premier League who has played at least one-third of his team’s minutes. More than that, the Swede is excellent in hold-up play. He loses the ball to tackles less than both Lucas Moura and Steven Bergwijn, Tottenham’s two other right-wing options. He seems to always make the right pass, as evidenced by his 81.9% pass completion percentage (86th percentile for wingers).

Tottenham also has the easiest remaining schedule of the three contenders. Yet there is no numerical value that can account for Spurs being Spurs.

“In a short time, it’s impossible to do this, not only for me but I think for any manager or coach to come in and change the story in one second,” Conte said after the loss to Middlesbrough. “This story of this club for the last 20 years.”

Manchester United, with all its turbulence and having played a game more than both clubs it’s chasing, would be hard-pressed to make up the gap with just five matches left. Aside from Saturday’s tilt with Arsenal, the Red Devils still have to face Chelsea and have a trip to Crystal Palace to finish out the season. Those at Old Trafford will likely be looking ahead to next season, when longtime Ajax manager Erik ten Hag will take over.

That leaves Arsenal and Tottenham, and specifically a fixture between the two on May 12. It’s simplistic to say that one match will decide the top-four race. But the Gunners’ trip to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is crucial. If for nothing else, these teams are so similar in their dysfunction that you can almost guarantee they’ll stumble equally elsewhere.

Saturday’s matchup at the Emirates could paint a picture of who is actually serious about reaching next year’s Champions League. But with the seesawing nature of each of these clubs’ form, no one result can be trusted to determine who will secure that coveted fourth spot.