2022-23 Champions League Draw: Pots, Group Scenarios and Possibilities

The eight groups will be set Thursday in Istanbul, with the field being completed following the final playoff round, and there are some intriguing potential pairings.

For the penultimate time, the UEFA Champions League will feature 32 of Europe’s finest vying for the biggest club prize in the men’s game, and with the qualifying playoffs complete as of Wednesday, the field is set for Thursday’s draw (noon ET) in Istanbul, the site of the June 2023 final.

FC Copenhagen, Dinamo Zagreb, Rangers, Viktoria Plzen, Benfica and Maccabi Haifa were the six winners who emerged from the play-in rounds to round out the field, which will once again feature a slew of clubs looking to unseat 14-time European champion Real Madrid.

UEFA structures the pots as follows: Pot 1 contains the reigning Champions League and Europa League winners (Real Madrid, Eintracht Frankfurt) and the domestic title winners from the top six leagues according to the region’s coefficient. The remaining pots are set in club coefficient order (a formula that takes into account the results of each club in UEFA competitions based on performances over the last five seasons), which limits the potential for true groups of death but does offer some intriguing possibilities. It’s when the Pot 3 teams—this time including clubs such as Borussia Dortmund, Inter Milan and Napoli—get distributed Thursday where the fun truly begins.

As is always the case, clubs from the same league cannot be drawn together in the same group. With Russian clubs barred from competition due to its nation’s invasion of Ukraine, the past stipulation that kept Russian clubs and Ukrainian clubs apart in the group stage is no longer in play. One Ukrainian club, league-winning Shakhtar Donetsk, is involved in the competition (it was top of the table when the league was abandoned last season following the Russian invasion), with a second, Dynamo Kiev, falling in the playoffs. Shakhtar will play its group matches at Legia Warsaw’s stadium in Poland.

Here’s a look at the pots for the draw, along with some of the top potential pairings for the season ahead:

Pot 1: Real Madrid, Eintracht Frankfurt, Manchester City, AC Milan, Bayern Munich, PSG, Porto, Ajax

Pot 2: Liverpool, Chelsea, Barcelona, Juventus, Atlético Madrid, Sevilla, RB Leipzig, Tottenham 

Pot 3: Borussia Dortmund, Red Bull Salzburg, Shakhtar Donetsk, Inter Milan, Napoli, Benfica, Sporting CP, Bayer Leverkusen

Pot 4: Rangers, Dinamo Zagreb, Marseille, Copenhagen, Club Brugge, Celtic, Viktoria Plzeň, Maccabi Haifa

With Real Madrid the defending winners, the road to decide who wins this year’s Champions League trophy could lead to some intriguing matchups :: Sportfoto Rudel/Imago Images

Group of Death

Given the options, what’s the most difficult potential quartet? That starts by assessing the Pot 4 teams, picking out the top Pot 3 teams (as mentioned above) and then also looking at which Pot 1 teams are eligible to be drawn against the strongest sides in the prevailing pots. For example, Man City can’t be paired with Liverpool, Chelsea or Tottenham, so its true death options are minimal. City would be favored to emerge comfortably atop a group featuring Pot 2 sides Barcelona, Juventus, Atlético Madrid, Sevilla or Leipzig.

Real Madrid-Liverpool-Inter-Marseille likely offers the highest death potential on paper, despite Liverpool’s current struggles, and it also ensures that it features four previous winners of the competition. Between Real Madrid’s 14, Liverpool’s six, Inter’s three and Marseille’s one title, that’s a combined 24 European titles in one potential group (sub Celtic for Marseille, and it’s the same, although Marseille’s title came in the Champions League era). A Bayern-Liverpool-Inter/Napoli-Marseille group also offers a similar effect—four clubs in Europe’s top five leagues all with the talent to reach the knockout stage.

Group of Ronaldo

Manchester United may not be involved in the competition, which has led to some trouble in paradise at Old Trafford, but Cristiano Ronaldo’s previous clubs are.

Real Madrid-Juventus-Sporting-Marseille, while also having some light death potential, would feature Ronaldo’s three non-United clubs, plus a team that “Mr. Champions League” himself has victimized four times in European play.

Group of Mané

Sadio Mané has gotten off to a brilliant start with Bayern Munich, and two of his former clubs are involved in the competition. A pairing featuring Bayern, Liverpool and RB Salzburg would also include a trip down memory lane for the Senegal international. 

Group of Ancelotti

Carlo Ancelotti is the most decorated manager in the Champions League’s history, winning his fourth title last season, and his experience across the top tier of Europe’s clubs mean that he could cross paths with a number of his previous employers. His résumé also means that he has steered clear of all Pot 4 entrants in this season’s competition. 

As such, four of his current or former teams are in Pot 1 (Real Madrid, AC Milan, Bayern Munich, PSG), but for the purposes of this, let’s stick with his present club, Real Madrid. A group featuring Real Madrid, Chelsea and Napoli would certainly fit the bill here. Real Madrid drawing Juventus would prevent Napoli from joining their group as well and prevent that possibility from taking shape.

Group of Arsenal

The Gunners are still looking to fight their way back to Europe’s top tier and have looked the part so far early in the Premier League season, but their alumni are well represented on this season’s Champions League stage. For instance, how about a group featuring Serge Gnabry (Bayern Munich), Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Barcelona), Henrikh Mkhitaryan (Inter Milan) and Alexis Sánchez and Matteo Guendouzi (Marseille)?

Group of USMNT

Timmy Chandler is far removed from the U.S. national team picture, with his last cap coinciding with Jurgen Klinsmann’s last match, and he’s hardly part of Eintracht Frankfurt’s top rotation, but the 32-year-old fullback represents the only U.S. international in Pot 1 and thus plays a very important role in this very important thought exercise.

In total, there are 10 U.S. internationals in this competition, although only a handful are in frame for the World Cup. Two of them who had been regulars in the competition in recent seasons, Brenden Aaronson and Tyler Adams, moved to Leeds, which isn’t in the Champions League picture. But, barring transfers and/or loans elsewhere by the Sept. 1 deadline, Christian Pulisic (Chelsea), Weston McKennie (Juventus), Sergiño Dest (Barcelona), Gio Reyna (Dortmund), Cameron Carter-Vickers (Celtic), Malik Tillman and James Sands (Rangers) are all involved, as is Chandler, Club Brugge’s Owen Otasowie (one cap, November 2020) and Maccabi Haifa and ex-USL goalkeeper Josh Cohen (uncapped).

So any combination that features one of Chelsea, Barcelona and Juventus out of Pot 2 and then Dortmund and Rangers will surely catch the eye of USMNT staff, players and supporters alike in the coming weeks (since Frankfurt and Dortmund can’t be drawn together given they are both Bundesliga clubs, there’s no scenario in which all four clubs in a group features U.S. players). Should Dortmund land Dest from Barcelona, as has been rumored this week, that would take Barça out of the running here and make a Chelsea/Juventus-Dortmund-Rangers trio in any group even more of a lure from a U.S. angle.