Spain Lives Its World Cup Life on the Edge, but May Be Better Off for It

La Furia Roja toed the line of a shocking collapse, but instead came away with a seemingly more favorable knockout stage draw.

Spain’s World Cup run seemed to be flourishing heading into Thursday’s group stage finale with Japan. La Furia Roja had positioned itself first in Group E and needed just a win or a draw (or Germany to avoid collapse against Costa Rica) and it would cruise through to the round of 16.

It was not so simple. And for 180 seconds, it appeared all the promise of a young, energized, focused side had come crashing down.

An 11th-minute goal from a resurgent Álvaro Morata looked to have Spain on its way to the knockout stage. This was, after all, the team that thrashed Costa Rica for seven goals in its opener and controlled possession for 65% of the match in a draw with Germany. But Japan showed the same resilience it displayed earlier in the tournament against the Germans. It flew out of the second half with an ultra-aggressive press that caught the Spaniards sleeping, and Ritsu Dōan blasted a shot from distance past Unai Simón for a shock equalizer.

A GOLAZO for Ritsu Doan puts Japan in position to go through and Germany in position to go out

(via @FoxSoccer) pic.twitter.com/4Vpr900AWl

— SI Soccer (@si_soccer) December 1, 2022

The simultaneous final group-stage matchups make for bizarre scenarios. The barometer for success for each team shifts rapidly based on the result of another match at another stadium. And Spain was nearly lost in the sheer chaos that struck soon after.

The Japanese weren’t content sitting on level terms. They needed a victory to ensure a spot in the last 16, and continued to press forward. Just three minutes later, they found the go-ahead goal. Kaoru Mitoma barely kept the ball in bounds and cut it back to Ao Tanaka, who tapped into an empty net with Simón off his line.

Japan’s second goal makes it so Spain and Germany are tied for second—but Spain’s +6 edge in goal differential means the Germans are tumbling out

(via @FoxSoccer) pic.twitter.com/uwLVTWgp7v

— SI Soccer (@si_soccer) December 1, 2022

Meanwhile, 30 miles north at Al Bayt Stadium, Costa Rica was mounting its own upset. The Ticos equalized at 1–1 in the 58th minute, then were the beneficiaries of some calamitous defending as the ball rolled in once more past German goalkeeper Manuel Neuer in the 70th. At that moment, both mighty Germany and Spain were headed home, with Japan and Costa Rica holding the group’s top two knockout stage spots.

It proved fleeting—the Germans scored in the 73rd minute to equalize, then again in the 85th and the 89th to ensure that Costa Rica finished last in the group. But for three minutes, Spain, needing just a point to secure its knockout stage spot, needed an equalizer more than it could’ve known. The patient, probing play of Luis Enrique’s side didn’t have the bite Thursday that it displayed earlier in the tournament. It also didn’t have enough of a sense of urgency when the situation, possibly unbeknownst to the players on the pitch in realtime, got dire.

“It was difficult because it is something that you cannot control, the other game, so the only thing we could do was to try to give confidence and to help our teammates to win our game,” right back César Azpilicueta said after the game, per The Athletic.

Enrique claimed that he, too, was unaware of the scoreline in the other game.

“If I’d known we were out, I’d have had a heart attack,” Enrique said.

The goal never came for Spain, but it didn’t matter. Japan held on in the end to become shock winners of Group E. Germany was eliminated in the group stage for the second straight World Cup. And La Furia Roja survived—and even ended in a better spot than they would’ve been in had they won the group.

Because Croatia drew with Belgium to hand Morocco the Group F bragging rights earlier Thursday, Spain avoids the 2018 finalists in the round of 16 and instead gets the Atlas Lions. And barring a surprise result Friday, the loss also means Spain is almost certain not to meet Group G powerhouse Brazil in a potential quarterfinal matchup, should it advance.

The margins are razor-thin at this level of competition. Had the ball rolled an inch further before Mitoma’s cross for Japan’s winner, Germany would have been the one to skate through, and the Japanese would have been sent home despite a valiant effort.

Spain’s tightrope walk was dangerous, and nearly disastrous. But La Furia Roja averted crisis and, somehow, ended up in a seemingly more favorable position. Thursday’s result notwithstanding, Spain still very much looks like a side poised to do some damage in the knockout stage.