SI:AM | One of These Eight Teams Will Win the World Cup

Plus, Baker’s miracle comeback.

Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. These might be the best two days of the World Cup.

In today’s SI:AM:

⚽ Picks from the quarterfinals on

👨‍🍳 Baker’s miracle comeback

🙏 The relief of Griner’s release

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Favorites, upstarts, stars and newcomers

The end of the 2022 World Cup is in sight. Beginning, oh, right about the time this email hit your inbox, the quarterfinals will whittle the list of contenders from eight to four. Over the course of the group stage and round of 16, some teams have emerged looking better than others, but given the unpredictable nature of knockout soccer, the trophy is still very much up for grabs. Let’s take a quick look at all four of the quarterfinal matches, in chronological order.

Croatia vs. Brazil (10 a.m. ET today)

The Seleção are on a roll right now after beating South Korea 4–1 in the round of 16, and they claimed the top spot in Marcus Krum’s quarterfinal power rankings for a reason. Brazil’s combination of top-end talent and impressive depth make it the team to beat. Croatia, meanwhile, isn’t as strong as the side that reached the 2018 World Cup final against France. This year’s team is older and, after taking Japan to a shootout in the round of 16 on Monday, those veteran legs have a lot of miles on them. As Krum points out, 28-year-old Mateo Kovačić, 30-year-old Marcelo Brozović and 37-year-old Luka Modrić played a combined 316 minutes in midfield in that match and have had just four days to recover before the Brazil game. Croatia’s winning formula has revolved around its midfield, but will fatigue get to their legs?

Netherlands vs. Argentina (2 p.m. ET today)

The Dutch toyed with the U.S. in the round of 16, allowing the Americans to control the bulk of the possession before capitalizing on opportunities on the counterattack. Cody Gakpo, the 23-year-old forward for PSV, has emerged as a serious goal-scoring threat, finding the back of the net in all three of the Netherlands’ group stage games. Midfielder Frenkie de Jong and winger Memphis Depay have also helped power the offense. But, strain yourself for a bold take here, none of them are as good as Lionel Messi. While Argentina has struggled to convert chances at times (like in the 2–1 loss to Saudi Arabia to open its tournament), Messi has the ability to erase those concerns in an instant. Argentina entered the tournament as one of the favorites and remains a contender (with the third-best odds at SI Sportsbook). It could win the whole thing as easily as it could go crashing out against the Dutch.

Portugal vs. Morocco (10 a.m. ET tomorrow)

Morocco is the big surprise of the tournament to this point. The Atlas Lions earned their first trip to the World Cup quarters by outlasting Spain in the round of 16 in a penalty shootout after playing to a 0–0 draw through 120-plus minutes. The Moroccan defense, which has allowed just one goal all tournament (an own goal against Canada), is no joke, but neither is the Portuguese attack. Portugal beat Switzerland, 6–1, in the round of 16 behind a hat trick from striker Gonçalo Ramos. The 21-year-old Benfica man got the nod at striker over Cristiano Ronaldo after manager Fernando Santos took issue with the icon’s attitude in the team’s final group stage match. It was a bold move, but it paid off, and the fact that Portugal will likely have a finisher of either Ramos’s or Ronaldo’s quality coming off the bench is bad news for Morocco.

France vs. England (2 p.m. ET tomorrow)

This is it. This is the big one. Both of these teams are more than capable of winning the tournament, and, come Sunday, one of them will be headed home. France is the defending champion and, even though Ballon d'Or winner Karim Benzema, Paul Pogba and N’Golo Kante had to stay home due to injuries, this year’s iteration looks just as good as the squad that won in 2018. A lot of that is thanks to Kylian Mbappé, who used the World Cup in Russia as a springboard to global stardom. He’s scored five goals in Qatar, including two against Poland in the last round. England has also been impressive thus far, winning three games by a combined score of 12–2 (plus the 0–0 draw against the U.S.). England has outstanding depth—it’s quite the luxury to be able to bring Marcus Rashford and Jack Grealish off the bench—but the Three Lions haven’t faced a team anywhere near as good as France yet. All five of our experts picked France to win.

The best of Sports Illustrated

Kelley L Cox/USA TODAY Sports

In today’s Daily Cover, Conor Orr looks at how Brock Purdy went from being considered nearly undraftable out of Iowa State to having a realistic shot of leading the 49ers to a deep playoff run:

A few months ago he was the NFL Draft’s Mr. Irrelevant, the final selection at No. 262. He earned a spot as the 49ers’ third-string quarterback. Now? He is stepping under center for one of the NFL’s elite teams, and that fact doesn’t seem to be freaking anyone out (most betting markets, as of this week, have San Francisco as the fifth-most popular team to win the Super Bowl).

• Speaking of quarterbacks with potential, Orr thinks that Baker Mayfield’s miracle comeback only two days after he joined the Rams is evidence that he can be a starter somewhere in 2023.
• Brian Straus writes that this year’s World Cup has just reinforced the men’s world soccer hierarchy, with Europe and South America running the show.
• Michael Rosenberg reflects on the relief of Brittney Griner’s release.
• After the Mets re-signed Brandon Nimmo, Emma Baccellieri argues that they shouldn’t stop spending.
• Here are the odds and matchups for SI Sportsbook’s Perfect 10 contest in Week 14 of the NFL season.

The top five...

… things I saw last night:

5. Mitch Marner’s goal to extend his point streak to 21 games. (It’s the longest such streak in Maple Leafs history.)

4. Damian Lillard’s contested three to give the Blazers the lead in the final seconds.

3. Jamal Murray’s game-winning three for the Nuggets immediately after.

2. Davante Adams’s one-handed catch with Jalen Ramsey draped all over him.

1. Baker Mayfield’s 98-yard game-winning drive with no timeouts.

SIQ

On this day in 1985, after being held without a catch the week before, 49ers rookie Jerry Rice began his NFL record streak of consecutive games with a reception. What year was it the next time Rice played a game in which he did not catch a pass?

• 1991
• 1995
• 1999
• 2004

Yesterday’s SIQ: Three weeks before the Bears beat Washington 73–0 in the 1940 NFL championship game, Chicago lost to Washington 7–3. What did Washington owner George Preston Marshall famously call the Bears after that game?

• Crybabies and quitters
• Losers and wimps
• Sad sacks and charity cases
• Scallywags and fools

Answer: Crybabies and quitters. The exact quote was: “The Bears are a bunch of crybabies. They’re front-runners. They can’t take defeat. They’re a first-half club. They’re not a second-half team. The Bears are quitters.”

As luck would have it, the Bears got a chance at revenge after they won the NFL’s West division and Washington won the East, setting up a rematch in the championship game. The game was a total embarrassment. Chicago scored seven touchdowns on the ground, one through the air and another three on interception returns in a 73–0 pasting that stands as the most points ever scored by one team in a single game. The Bears apparently kicked so many extra points into the stands that the officials asked the team to go for two after their last two touchdowns to avoid losing their last football.

Nearly six decades later, though, a key player suggested that the game wasn’t on the level. Washington’s Hall of Fame quarterback Sammy Baugh said he thought his teammates allowed the Bears to run up the score because they were upset with Marshall’s comments.

“I think it happened because of what the owner did for two weeks,” Baugh told the Associated Press in 1999. “He put things in the paper running the Bears down. You don’t want to help the other team. You shouldn’t say things like that. It made us so mad. They decided not to play.

“Look at the game. How many times do you beat a team two weeks earlier in a real close game and two weeks later you don’t do a thing? What I think doesn’t matter. I don’t think we even wanted to win.”

Players on both teams refuted Baugh’s claims.

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