The Premier League Race for Europe and Table Scenarios: Matchday 37

With the title race now decided, all eyes fall to the chase for a Champions League spot and the relegation race.

If there were any plot twists remaining in a wild season in the Premier League, Matchweek 37 left very little for the grand finale. 

The only screen-switching on the final day next Sunday will involve the relegation race. That’s because Arsenal’s stunning loss decided the Premier League title Saturday, handing Manchester City its fifth title in six seasons. Meanwhile, the race for Europe was practically resolved with the weekend results. As far as the relegation race goes, well, that’s a bit more complicated. 

The good news is this: By this time next week, all shall be revealed.

The Title Chase

While it was far from expected, Arsenal really made things easy for the title race with its stunning loss at the hands of Nottingham Forest. Maybe more of us should have been focused on Forest’s impending quest for survival rather than Arsenal’s slim hopes at a title, but such is the focus of a long season—one that has been both compressed and lengthened by the midseason World Cup.

It was Taiwo Awoniyi that did the damage against the Gunners, scoring in the 19th minute before a tense 70 minutes unfolded. But despite 82% possession and nearly double the shots, Arsenal could not manage to score, adding to its recent drought of only two goals in its last three games. The Arsenal loss meant that the title race was signed sealed and delivered without Manchester City having to step foot on the pitch.

Manchester City has now won five of the last six Premier League titles / AP

When Manchester City did step out onto the field Sunday, it was as the Premier League champion, for what is now the third straight season. After the midweek semifinal triumph over defending Champions League winner Real Madrid, Pep Guardiola rested his stars and fielded a watered down side against Chelsea. Yet Man City’s B team still managed to take the three points thanks to an early goal from Julián Álvarez, who now has a chance to become just the 10th player to win the Champions League and World Cup in the same season. 

The Race for Europe

Now that the title race is wrapped up, all eyes will look to Europe and relegation as the remaining Premier League drama. However, Matchday 37’s results means that there won’t be as much tension in the European race as anticipated heading into the final weekend of games. Manchester United’s 1–0 win over Bournemouth set the tone thanks to Casemiro’s stunning early goal. 

The result means that Man United, level on 69 points with Newcastle, just needs one point from its remaining two matches to secure a Champions League spot for next season. United could wrap up the Champions League berth on Thursday against Chelsea or wait until Sunday against Fulham—it would be a major catastrophe if the Red Devils somehow managed to lose both.

Liverpool will still be hanging on by a thread for a Champions League spot, but its chances were severely hampered by a 1–1 draw with Aston Villa on Saturday. The result gave the Reds a likely Europa League spot, but Liverpool will need some luck to have United lose its final two matches to have a chance at Champions League. (Liverpool also trails Newcastle by three points, but Newcastle holds a far superior goal differential.)

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The Tottenham freefall continued with yet another loss, its fifth in the last seven league matches. After taking an early, eight-minute lead, Spurs conceded three second-half goals to Brentford as its European hopes slipped away. Brighton’s subsequent win over Southampton on Sunday eliminated Spurs from European contention while practically ensuring Brighton of a spot in the Europa Conference League over Aston Villa. Even if Villa wins its final game and Brighton loses its remaining two, Brighton currently holds a goal differential advantage of 16 goals, giving it a hold on the sixth and final spot.

The Relegation Scrap

The main result from the weekend, in regards to the race for survival, was the Nottingham Forest win. The three points ensured that Forest will stay in the Premier League for another season after a hectic year of massive summer spending and roller-coaster results. With the Forest win and Southampton already relegated, that leaves three teams fighting with two relegation spots yet to be determined.

Arsenal’s loss to Nottingham Forest secured a Man City title along with Forest’s safety / AP

Monday’s match between Leicester City and Newcastle will have major implications on both the European race and the relegation situation. Leicester City is currently second-to-last on 30 points, but a surprise win Monday would see it leave the relegation zone on goal differential, putting it level on points with Everton. Leicester City will then play West Ham on the final day. 

Everton did enough on Saturday to give itself some control over its destiny with a drama-filled draw against Wolves, relying on a 99th-minute goal from Yerry Mina. The Toffees will be looking for some help from Newcastle on Monday to subdue Leicester (or from West Ham next Sunday). If Leicester drops points in either, a win will secure Everton’s safety. 

Leeds, meanwhile, was dealt a significant blow to its hopes of staying up with a 3–1 loss to West Ham on Sunday. Its chances of survival now look highly unlikely; on the final day, Leeds must defeat Tottenham and needs an Everton loss along with a stumble or two by Leicester, which holds the superior goal differential amongst the remaining three relegation candidates. 

Now that all the scenarios are laid out, its time to sit back and let the chips fall.