Nigeria’s Women’s World Cup Upset of Australia Sets Up Thrilling Final Day Group B Scenarios

The Super Falcons’ upset of the co-hosts has thrust the Group of Death into chaos with an enticing group finale awaiting on Monday.

Nigeria notched the biggest win in the country’s Women’s World Cup history in a 3–2 thriller against co-host Australia, setting the stage for an exhilarating final day in the Group of Death. 

Led by Pitt women’s soccer coach Randy Waldrum, Nigeria came back from a 1–0 deficit to defeat the tenth-ranked Matildas. Just five minutes after Australia’s opening goal, Racing Louisville’s Uchenna Kanu equalized just before the stroke of halftime.

Osinachi Ohale then gave the Super Falcons the lead in the 65th before Barcelona star Asisat Oshoala extended the lead to 3–1. Despite an Australia goal 10 minutes into stoppage time, Nigeria fought off a late comeback attempt for its fourth-ever win at the Women’s World Cup.

After earning a surprise draw against reigning gold medalist Canada in the opener, Nigeria now sits atop Group B on goal differential. Next up for Nigeria is the group finale against an already eliminated Irish team while Canada and Australia duke it out in one of the tournament’s most anticipated group-stage matches. 

While Canada and Australia were the heavy favorites to advance from Group B, Nigeria’s stunning rise has turned the heavyweights’ showdown during the simultaneous matches on Monday into a potential elimination bout. While hopeful, it is still uncertain whether Australia star striker Sam Kerr will be available for the final match after suffering a knee injury on the eve of the tournament. 

Nigeria can advance to the knockout stage with a win or draw against Ireland on Monday :: Tertius Pickard/AP

One thing is guaranteed: The winners of the final Group B games will advance regardless. But a Nigeria loss could throw the whole group into chaos.  

The tiebreakers at the Women’s World Cup are as follows: 1) Goal differential; 2) Goals scored; 3) Most points obtained in the group match(s) between the teams concerned (head-to-head); 4) Superior goal difference from the match(s) between the teams concerned; 5) Most goals scored in the group matches between the teams concerned.

Ahead of Monday’s Group B finale, here are the main scenarios for advancing to the knockout stages for each of the three eligible teams:

Nigeria (4 points, +2 goal differential, three goals scored): Advances with a win or draw vs. Ireland OR a loss and a Canada win. A one-goal Nigeria loss and a Canada-Australia draw would see Nigeria and Australia’s fate come down to goals scored. A two-plus-goal loss and a Canada-Australia draw would eliminate Nigeria.

Canada (4 points, +1 goal differential, two goals scored): Advances with a win or draw vs. Australia. If both Canada and Nigeria lose, whichever team lost by fewer goals would advance. If they both lost by the same deficit, goals scored would be the next tiebreaker.

Australia (3 points, 0 goal differential, three goals scored): Advances with a win vs. Canada OR a draw vs Canada and a Nigeria loss by two or more goals. A one-goal Nigeria loss and a Canada-Australia draw would see Nigeria and Australia’s fate come down to goals scored. If still tied, the next tiebreaker would be head-to-head results, which works in Nigeria’s favor after Thursday’s 3–2 win over the Matildas.